To lift an idea from "The Hunger Games", I think the odds would always be in our favor parked into the wind.

1) In general, aircraft would be facing the prevailing winds and control surfaces would typically be in trail, reducing the chances of them getting slammed around.

2) I think both nosegear and tailwheel aircraft, properly secured, won't go anywhere in strong headwinds. The aircraft I've seen wrecked at Oshkosh were all turned away from the wind and when the tail broke loose, bad things happened. Obviously, there are no guarantees that aircraft will be properly secured, but I think the odds are generally improved with the aircraft facing the wind.

Aside: The nice little Sopwith Pup replica parked at the Replica Fighter Association HQ actually broke loose during the storm. I don't know why it didn't get shredded, but we walked up on it that evening, repaired the broken rope that had previously held the tail and tightened the ropes attached to the wings. The aircraft was secured by "the claw" and whoever tied it down didn't follow the instructions on how to use that system. Maybe someone needs to walk the field an hour after aircraft arrive and give tie-down guidance. There are people who could use help there...