AOPA Webpage fatal accident study

[Mayhemxpc]

ILS, aerobatics, flight time, etc., these are all nice things that you can measure. The important thing -- as others have alluded to -- is judgement. Keeping the shiny side up and the greasy side down in good weather isn't hard. Hopefully, none of us would have solo'd a student if they could not do that PREDICTABLY well. The key is whether that pilot understands the limitations of his or her skill (regardless of hours logged) recognizes the hazards that will exceed those limits and assesses the likelihood of encountering those hazards, and then makes a prudent decision about managing those risks. How do you assess judgement? How do you (as a CFI) help people to develop the risk management skills upon which sound judgement is based?

If only I had taught him how to fly an ILS (although I would argue better to know how to call for help and fly vectors to a PAR)
If only he had more flight time (WWII pilots flew in combat and horrible weather with far fewer hours)
If only he had actual experience in recovering from from an accidental Lumshovak (on instruments)

We need to stress using superior judgement to avoid having to demonstrate superior skill. This is where I entirely agree with the FAA's scenario based training program. (Even though I have some serious concerns with other aspects of it.)

[Bob Dingley]

I certainly agree with everyone that a well equipped airplane is no match for poor judgement. No point in my piling on too. Low experience & poor judgement were the overwhelming factors on this one. The next one may well follow the familiar single point failure scenario. I'm recalling the Carnahan crash about a dozen years ago. FAA sent ADs to me on the Parker Hannifin vacuum pump as long as I owned my Beech.

Just look at the number of folks flying IFR in planes with only one attitude indicator, one alternator, no autopilot, no co-pilot and arriving safely. No headlines on those guys. I confess to be one of those guys. I once flew a Cherokee 10 hours solo and logged 7 hours IFR. But there was no time on that flight that I could not get back on the ground safely if anything or everything failed. Proper prior planning prevents poor performances. My wife has a talent for focusing me when aboard. No airman certificates, but I value her judgement. She has a special way of saying "Just what do you think you're doing?" at those critical times.

Some neat backups are showing up on the market. I'm impressed with the Dynon D-1 Pocket Panel at a price everyone can afford. There are others. With one of these, some planning, some training and perhaps a helpful co-pilot, the odds swing in your favor.

Bob

[pacerpilot]

Really 1600? 500 hours? At an average of 50 hours year I guess we could all count on taking our grandkids flying huh? You also suggest a single seater. I guess you're not a big fan of dual instruction. Also, there aren't to many production single seaters available so you're promoting low hour pilots hop into potentially dicey experimentals without the benefit of training. NOT GOOD ADVICE! I gotta be honest, with 200 hours if you're not confident yet, please don't fly over my house! I don't blame him for not speaking to you-sorry.

[steveinindy]

I hope Steve from Indy rings in on this, he see's what a low time pilot will get you......KILLED is what it will get you.

Even as someone who deals with the oft disturbing aftermath of crashes and the concept of risk mitigation for a living, I think you are being a little overly cautious which can be just as potentially hazardous as being flippant about safety. It can lead you to avoiding opportunities that could make you a better pilot. Flying for 500 hours alone in an airplane does not prepare you for hauling three passengers and their bags around. In many aircraft, the handling characteristics can change with the associated shifts in CG. You train like you fly and fly like you train to paraphrase a military expression. If you want to build applicable experience without passengers on board, you can always use sandbags or something similar to approximate the masses of your passengers.

Actually, what is interesting is that while low hours often correlate with crashes we often treat it as thought is causative. The problem is one where people fail to realize that there is a distinct difference between correlation and causation. A low hour pilot is at risk because of the way the numbers are broken out. If you are lumping those undergoing instruction in with those who are newly certificated, you make it seem that pilots who just completed their training is as dangerous as someone with 10 hours. While overall experience is important, what really probably matters most in terms of time is experience in the type of aircraft you are talking about (Cirrus for a Cirrus, RV for an RV, Cessna 172 for a Cessna 172) and currency of that experience. If you are a 10,000 hour pilot who only flies 50 or a hundred hours per year in a wide variety of aircraft, there is a distinct risk you are more of a hazard to yourself and your passengers than a person who has flown a single type of aircraft for 200 hours per year ab initio. Thinking that a few hours per year and a BFR combined with thousands of hours of total time makes you a safe pilot is a great way to wind up as a set of data points in my research into crash survivability. Proficiency means more than total time.

A low hour competent, conscientious and well trained pilot is inherently no riskier than someone with a thousand hours who is treating their experience (in terms of total time) as a measure of their proficiency. One of the best studies on the subject was carried out by Dave O'Hare at the University of Otago in New Zealand. There is actually an INCREASE in crash rates at around 1,000 hours because people are traditionally upgrading into faster, more complex aircraft around that time. It may also be that people treat, perhaps subconsciously, the milestones of 500 or 1,000 hours as a watershed moment that erodes fear or discomfort leading to one taking more risks by tolerating lower minima, more complex terrain, etc.

To ask a related question: Would there be any interest in me writing a full article on the subject of "experience" for the Experimenter? I am always looking for ideas for articles to follow my current and upcoming series on homebuilt safety.

[1600vw]

Steve write that article sounds like a good one.

This thread started over a man whom with low hrs takes his kids and a friend up on a long X-Country and..well we all know the outcome.

Then others jump on here and state how they took such and such up for a ride right after their checkride....this is on another thread about the same subject.

What people are loosing here is this...I am Not talking about going around the patch or flying 30 miles with a passenger. This is about a few hundred mile trip as a low time pilot.

Everyone else do what you will. If I had a few hundred mile trip to make and the pilot was new I would drive, just me. You folks do what you want....

Many are loosing the point of a few mile trip with a passenger and a few hundred mile trip with a passenger. Sure if you just receive your ticket and asked me to go for a ride around the patch or so I would jump at the idea, but have that same new pilot ask me to go on a state to state ride...I will drive, now if another pilot is along I might go but me and a new pilot, I will walk first.

Just me..You do what you want.

I had a woman whom found out I fly want to go for a ride...the very first thing she asked was...How many hrs I have flown....I told her do not worry about it..I fly no one but me.
She said..My dad was a pilot, he told me do not climb in any airplane if the pilot has under 300 hrs. So I am not the only one whom thinks this way.

I just get so upset or emotional when I read articles like the one that draws us all here. This low time pilot with his kids on board and someone elses child..we know the rest..So say what you want, its in black and white and the NTSB website is full of pilots just like this man.

One man on another thread stated this scares him......Good it should scare you..It scares the Bajeezes out of me.
Merry Christmas Everyone
H.A.S.

[1600vw]

Remember everyone we are talking long x-country trips not flying around the patch or local trips.

We have restrictions on new drivers and for a very good reason, for saftey. Is it asking to much for a new pilot to get sometime flying those long X-county trips before they take loved ones on those trips. I guess it's one of those.....It will not happen to me things.....Or....... I am to good for that to happen to me....I bet that man thought the same thing...

H.A.S.

[1600vw]

The other thing that bothers me is a High time pilot or someone whom should have known better helped him do this. If that man would have had personal limits on how far a new pilot should fly he would have never helped.

Am I wrong here? I have been wrong before.

H.A.S.

[martymayes]

The other thing that bothers me is a High time pilot or someone whom should have known better helped him do this. If that man would have had personal limits on how far a new pilot should fly he would have never helped.

Am I wrong here? I have been wrong before.

Well, most of your argument is irrational and being directed by emotion, not facts. That's pretty much how I would classify the accident pilot's decision making.

1600VW, If you're interested in increasing your knowledge, gaining REAL experience with how to operate an airplane and be safe without making a "no-go" decision at every turn, you should seek out additional training. I'll be more than happy to work with you at 1/2 my normal instructional fee.

[danielfindling]

So I have spent a lot of time over the years thinking what could I have done differently. Any ideas? Could this have been prevented?

To quote Ernest Gann: "Fate is the Hunter". Maybe it could not have been prevented.

Notwithstanding, this AOPA safety video reminded me of myself (a 45 year old private pilot with 250 hrs) and reminds me of the need for good ADM. Something I feel I do a good job at. However, I also know I am human and make mistakes in judgment. We all do.

We have checklists for every airplane we fly, maybe the last line of every checklist should include the reminder to: "Use good judgment" and include your personal minimums. It's should be read out loud before every flight.

Adding humility to the aviation culture - I propose, will improve safety.

I am confident that the horrific experience you described improved your ability to teach safety to pilots - unfortunately, fate may, notwithstanding intervene without explanation.

Daniel

[Mayhemxpc]

One poster has, both here and in another thread, mentioned that new drivers have to drive a certain number of hours before they can carry passengers. (This is not true for every State.) Funny thing about this. I am going through this with my 15 1/2 year old son. When I saw the rules I thought, "Great, they are applying similar rules to that which we already have for pilots!" Again, we already have those rules. Unlike in cars, student pilots fly ALONE. They have a minimum amount of time for flying alone (20 hours) before a CFI can determine that they are ready to pass their check ride, and fly with passengers. Most student pilots get somewhat more than the minimum solo time before being approved for their check ride. I understand that the person who posted the new driver analogy believes that this 20 hours, followed by a review by an experienced and competent instructor pilot, followed by an oral and practical examination by someone with much more experienced and with more opportunities for evaluating judgement than any DMV examiner, is inadequate. That is his opinion and he has a right to hold it. But, his analogy between new drivers and new pilots is inapt.

Now, should a new pilot carry a non-rated passenger on a long cross-country? Probably not. I don't think 100 miles (about an hour flight time), however, is very long. The new pilot did better than that in his training -- and was evaluated -- and passed that evaluation. Did I carry non-rated passengers (my wife) on a 300 mile cross country flight (landing in the Chicago TRACON area) before I had 200 hours? Yes. Was I safe? Arguably yes. Should a new pilot find a pilot buddy to make such long trips with first (which I also did). Good idea. This is all about judgment, however -- not flight hours.

One more point: At just over 200 hours I had my commercial certificate. That is when the FAA says that, not only can I get paid for flying, I can get paid for flying passengers. As PIC.