Seeking to place the data and model projections into perspective, to help inform my contingency planning. Keep in mind that for a typical flu season in the US, the average mortality rate is as follows:

2017-2018 season = 61,000 deaths
2018-2019 season = 34,200 deaths

If one visits the following web link.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Scroll down for the model projection on mortality, the numbers are as follows (for model dated April 5, 2020):

Expected mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 81,671 (on the order of twice, to slightly more than, the typical seasonal flu)
Low estimate of mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 49,431 (within the range of a typical flu season)
High estimate of mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 136,174 (more than double the "recent" highest mortality from seasonal flu)

(*Note: the model uncertainty is a result of uncertainty in the input parameters and assumptions. One approach is to use a technique termed Monte Carlo Simulation to consider uncertainty in a modeling process. The outcome is generally an expected value (or average), along with high and low estimates for future projections.). (*Also note: this discussion is not meant to diminish any loss of life, as every life is precious, and is only meant to consider the situation from a quantitative perspective).

Four main takeaways for me. 1) The COVID process seems to have the potential of moving behind us, as of early June. 2) The model assumes "full social distancing" through May 2020. 3) The projections of mortality rate seems to be proximal to seasonal flu counts, while the economy takes a big hit due to the required social distancing. 4) COVID-19 is deadly and needs to be taken very seriously, and physical distancing along with the associated economic implications, are realities that we need to accept.

Yes, there is always the possibility for a second wave, if the first wave is not sufficiently stomped out using physical distancing, etc. Hopefully this won't happen, but no guarantees. We need to follow all the CDC recommendations!

The timeline depicted in the epidemiological models makes it difficult for an organization such as EAA to make the "GO" / "NO-GO" decisions, due to the long lead time that is needed for an event as large as AirVenture (so many contracts to sign - committing funds for an event that may not happen).

However, the smaller pre-AirVenture fly-ins can be more nimble, and flexible, with a shorter timeline to making the "go" / "no-go" decision. Maybe some of them will be in a position to make a "go" decision at the last moment, and there might be various "mini fly-ins" in the vicinity of KOSH. If this is the case, my contingency plans will allow me to attend and enjoy the "rather different" AirVenture experience. If this happens, this "rather different" AirVenture may, in fact, turn out to be a very interesting and enjoyable experience.

As noted earlier, until then I plan to fly locally as long as legally allowed, and stay healthy by practicing all the CDC recommendations, without letting up my guard until this scourge is in the rear view window.

Take care, Wayne