Lots of planes, little flying

[bwilson4web]

Hi,

Today I found a hangar and went over my Dragonfly project. But the A&P I spoke with twice mentioned, 'We have lots of planes, no hangars, and little flying.'

I thought about it later and remembered when I flew my Cherokee 140 at eight gallons/hour, I was sensitive to fuel costs but back in 1976-80, prices were just twice auto gas, $2.50-3.00 / gal. My Dragonfly will burn four gallons per hour and cost just as much as the Cherokee . . . I can afford to go fly. But given current 100LL prices, the Cherokee would have been a problem.

Could the GA problem be little more than the direct operational cost of fuel?

Bob Wilson

[DanChief]

Fuel is one factor.

So is the gradual loss of an entire generation of pilots (many beneficiaries of the original, generous GI Bill), aging of the fleet, threat of legal action at every turn, loss of small airfields, deregulation of airlines (and the attendant reduction in fares making personal business flying less cost effective), and overall lack of tolerance for hobbies that require significant time and money before "paying off" and the fact that anyone is flying today is encouraging.

[Joe LaMantia]

In answer to your question, "Could the GA problem be little more than the direct operational cost of fuel?" My answer is no. I think Dan has hit on some of the drivers, but the real cause is the overall state of America.
We are in a transition period moving from the 40 plus years of global dominance to something less. What we have been experiencing across all sectors of American life is the fall out of this change. We have a political system that has failed to plan for the impacts of the global economy and chooses to "let the market" balance things. We are the only country in the world that takes this position, and China is benefiting greatly. General Aviation will survive and grow in China, we will see GA look more like it did in the 1930's when one sector could afford the latest equipment and the rest built their own, by hand in a garage. Not trying to be "political" but were not getting anywhere following what worked in the past.

Joe

[Frank Giger]

[W]e will see GA look more like it did in the 1930's when one sector could afford the latest equipment and the rest built their own, by hand in a garage. Joe

This is my thinking as well.

There will always be exceptions to the rule, like a small business owner figuring out that flying himself to a business meeting is a financial winner in time and convenience, but the trend is to the very high end and the very low end of cost of aircraft (relative, of course - aviation will never be cheap).

Things could change this, though. A dramatic increase in commercial aviation fares or some sort of restriction on automobiles (say if electrics get mandated for them, limiting their range and speed) could upset the balance; this is really unlikely.

[nfdlpilot]

It seems to me that this is exactly the same reason that the E.A.A. was started. A group of guys who wanted to go flying but could not afford to do it the conventional way, pooling their resources to make it more affordable. I belong to a flying club, and have been limiting my flying as much as possible while still staying current, and also scratch building an economical flyer. History repeats itself. I guess I belong the right organization!!

[HoosierAviator]

Of course fuel prices have something to do with it. I used to work at an FBO, and when gas prices went down (albeit rare), I could see a great jump in activity. The main problem is that the people's disposable income is dropping significantly because the cost of everything is going up while their wages are not. I'm 18, and I finally, luckily, got my license in August the day before I left for college. I paid for almost all of my lessons myself through saving for years. Only one time did my dad give me money in the middle of the process when my finances got thin, but I paid for the rest. I pushed to the very last day possible, as I knew that if I didn't get it done before I went to college, I would not finish it for years because the amount of time I need to spend on my college work would not have allowed me anytime to fly, but I finally got it done. It was the biggest relief in the world, and it felt so good to finally be able join the club! But the price to do just about anything today is ridiculous.

[Joe LaMantia]

Congrats Jesse!
You are proof that if you want something bad enough you can still find a way to get it done! I know a lot of "Seniors" who pine for the good old days and have negative things to say about the younger generation, but that is just a function of aging. That has been with us since Adam died! There's a old saying, "when things get tough the tough get going!", and today things are tough. Nice going!, tough guy!

Joe

[Jim Hann]

Bob,

100LL in our area runs from 5.23 to 8.14, so less than to more than double auto gas which was 3.17 on my drive home from work this morning. So I really don't think the cost of gas matters. It is all the other factors above. LSA and Sport Pilot have created a very small increase but it is lost in the great reduction of the overall fleet.

Jim

[Mike Switzer]

I haven't flown much this year, and it all comes back to lack of time & money - and the lack of time is due to lack of money as we are running with less hired help this year & I am picking up the slack. Our club flying hours are down across the board, almost everyone has cut back on what they are spending on flying.

[Mike Switzer]

I have heard from a few mechanics about lots of planes coming in for annual with less than 10 hours since the last one