FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013-2033

[Floatsflyer]

The FAA just released this report that provides a comprehaensive look at current and future trends in all of aviation transportation. I only looked at the GA sections and found the following intriguing bits of information in those categories that would be of most interest to the vast majority here. I'm sure you guys and ladies, if so inclined, could find more that I may have missed in the link below.

2012 overall-- The market showed some signs of improvement, recovery and growth but mostly in the turboprop agricultural and rotorcraft sectors. SE piston was flat, up 0.3% over 2011. GA activity at FAA and contract tower airports increased by 0.6%.

GA fleet operations, 2012- Fleet includes SE piston, ME piston, turboprops, turbojets, all rotorcraft, LSA, experimentals, gliders and lighter than air. Based on estimates and assumptions made: The GA active fleet is 220,670(a decrease of 1.2% from 2011 and remains unchanged for 2012).This is projected to grow to 246,375 by 2033. Flight hours decreased 0.9% from 2011 equalling 24.6 million.

Student Pilots, 2012-- In decline for many years, but in 2010 with the new FAA rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates to 60 months under the age of 40, resulted in a 64.8% increase(47,000) in the number of students compared to 2009. The impact of this new rule on long term trend in students has yet to be determined but in 2012 there was an increase of 1.1% to total of 119,946.

Avg. age of a us pilot in 2012--44.7 years old


The Forecasts:

-Piston powered including rotorcraft fleet projected to decrease from 2010 total of 159,007 to 146,615 in 2028 with declines in both SE and ME fixed wing but with piston rotorcraft enjoying growth. Beyond 2028 new deliveries are expected to exceed retirements so piston powered to increase to 148,660 by 2033. Over next 20 years piston powered SE fixed wing to decrease by avg. annual rate of 0.2% with piston powered rotorcraft to increase by 2.2% a year.

-The LSA fleet category will show a rate of increase of about 2% a year growth so that by 2033 there will be a total of 10,245. This is an increase from the 2011 active total of 6,645.

-GA hours flown- a 1.5% increase per year over the next 20 years.

-LSA hours flown- a 3.3% increase per year over the next 20 years driven by growth in the fleet.

-Active number of GA pilots(excluding air transport) projected to be 508,300 by 2033, an increase of 40,000 over the period(0.4% yearly)

-Student Pilots expected to decrease at avg. annual rate of 0.1% declining from 119,946 in 2012 to 117,400 in 2033.

-Sport Pilot Certificates- 14,200 by 2033, up from 4,493 in 2012.

-Private Pilots- from 188,001(who's that one??) in 2012 to 195,600 in 2033


Draw your own conclutions but the report indicates very little GA growth over the next 20 years except in LSA fleet, Sport Pilots, rotorcraft and business aviation. Happy reading!

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/...3_Forecast.pdf

[Kyle Boatright]

I hope the pilot numbers are accurate. But I'd take the "under" if I was a betting man.

[Flyfalcons]

I don't see how there's going to be any growth at all.

[Joe LaMantia]

I think we need the demographics on the pilot population for 2012 and 2033 to better understand the "growth". If the average age is going down, toward a younger pilot population then I would tend to accept the notion that growth is occurring. If it is "flat" we're holding our own, and if the age is increasing, well that's not so good.

Joe

[somorris]

All of us that are flying need to fly a LOT more! We can change this.

[martymayes]

I hope the pilot numbers are accurate.

They are "forecast" numbers. Yes, probably on the optimistic side. The FAA does that.