Yes, in all four cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by mbalexander
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Yes, in all four cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by mbalexander
RE the flu - the vaccinations for seasonal flus are a guess which one (s) will be spread in the year. The influenza virus is quite adept at mutating into another strain. So they guess which ones are projected/trending to arrive in the fall and make the vaccines for distribution. It takes months to distribute to the individual clinics and so .....
The flu vaccine isn't 100% for a couple of reasons, namely that "flu" isn't one virus. Each year they give their best shot at what flu strains are going to be prevavlent and choose three or four to include in that years shot. Your argument is entirely specious. We have near total effectiveness for several viruses including polio and smallpox, to the point where those diseases are virtually unheard of.Quote:
Originally Posted by mbalexander
The reason that there is no "common cold" virus is two things. First the "common cold" isn't a single affliction. It's caused by a few different viruses (mostly rhinovirus, but some corona). Second, the affliction is not the public health problem that merits spending a lot of money and other risk trying to forestall.
Thank you Ron, YOu amplified my posting re seasonal flu. Some of the readers may not remember the Polio virus cases in the US and the world. Even after some recovery there were many with post health effects that showed up a decade or 2 later. We are just now recognising that SARS COV-2 has long term health issues - unknown how many, how severe and when they may appear in numbers. Cavaliere attitudes and poor risk management has our numbers where they are -10M infections. With the infectious period prior to signs and high asymptomatic infection rates this is well engineered for a long lifespan. Here is a Youtube video of polio...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ezbEW9QZ4.
Back on thread - Q2 seems like a distribution target in the US. Q2 is also the go/no go for AV. We watch WI for their success in pulling rates down.
Interview with local researchers last night indicated third quarter 2021 for general availability of a vaccine. First deliveries will go the most vulnerable and to health-care workers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Heffelfinger
EAA is going to have quite a headache in handling this, even with a vaccine. Will attendees be required to be vaccinated? What proof will they need to show? Or will just the workers need proof of vaccination, or is there just a sign, "You accept all risk...." We have yet to see how legally effective this would be. Such disclaimers are much weaker if negligence can be shown, and with a contagion, it's easy to claim the defendant didn't clean something properly.
I think EAA dodged a bullet with AirVenture this year. Wisconsin's cases started to rise at the end of August, and if AV *had* been run, there would probably be some folks blaming EAA for the rise in sickness.
The other factor is the cycles we're seeing in the infection rates:
Attachment 8738
(from https://www.worldometers.info)
We've been seeing a peak every three months. Most theories minimize the calendar and blame societal issues (Everyone's going to the beach/school/Halloween parties etc.). But... it could be we'll see another peak right about the time EAA's trying to decide about AV2021. Or, like this year, a peak occurring at the same time as AV2021.
Very, VERY happy I'm not one of the people slated to make the call next May.....
Ron Wanttaja
So Wisconsin did not get really hit until after Labor Day. Why is that significant? Answer - Kids went back to school. Specifically the college kids. My eldest granddaughter went to UW Madison and caught COVID in less than two weeks. She readily admitted that no one was exercising social discipline and that is true for ever college town in the state.
We spent June - October in Wisconsin and avoided the bars completely simply due the lack of social distancing. One of our favorite Friday fish places got closed for a few weeks cause the owners came down with it and they were running their place per the rules. And that was is a fairly rural county.
Even if EAA decides to hold AV, they are still plagued by vehicle parking and people handling issues to the point of being at critical mass even without the virus issues.
One thing is for sure....the AV planners are going to have to consult their ouija boards a lot more over the coming months
Many thanks for providing these facts and figures, Ron. :thumbsup:Quote:
Originally Posted by rwanttaja
The vaccine(s) may not be the 'silver bullet' that we lay-people believe that it will be*. We must remember that the current crop of vaccines which are at the Phase 3 stage are not sterilising vaccines. That is, they do not prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2, they protect the recipient of the vaccine from developing Covid-19. Those who are successfully vaccinated can still spread the virus.
(*) I am not an immunologist, nor a virologist, nor an epidemiologist, so happy to be corrected by any qualified individual who knows more about the subject than I.
I read with alarm that hospitals in our collective second home, Wisconsin, are approaching a tipping point due to the high volume of Covid-19 patients. My best wishes to everyone in the state, and the USA generally, during this medical emergency.
In answer to the original question of this thread: No, I will not be attending in 2021 because it is unlikely that it will be safe to gather in large numbers. My guess is that the EAA will probably cancel it, unless a sterilising vaccine becomes available, is manufactured in large volumes and widely distributed. The same qualification* as above applies to this comment. :)
Good luck to all of you.
Cheers from Melbourne, Australia,
George
I'm still lobbying for 2 weeks for Oshkosh 2021!
... which is why I'm cautiously pessimistic. I'd love to be proven wrong, but too many years trying to estimate if I can make a specific ship-date has taught me that this one is too tight.Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingRon
If a little is good, more is better. Great idea!Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Blum