Who thinks there will be an Airventure in 2021?
Printable View
Who thinks there will be an Airventure in 2021?
Cautiously optimistic. It will take widespread distribution of a vaccine. I think the "drop dead" date for the EAA making a decision was around mid-May this year. They may be able to improve on that given that they have more lead time next year.
During the last EAA Chapter Video, Charlie Becker said there WILL be an Airventure Oshkosh 2021. So there ya go.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingRon
We won't need a vaccine in a couple of months.......:thumbsup:
I've never thought they wouldn't have it, and I'll bet it's going to be spectacular. I've already been making plans to fly my 1966 Cessna 150, gathering light weight camping gear and started my 30 lb weight loss program. Oshkosh is like a kid waiting for Christmas !
Bob
Agree with Ron......with today’s ROEs in place I would be cautiously optimistic. It’s going to take widespread availability of a vaccine and acceptance for any large crowd event to get back to “normal”.
"Who thinks there will be an Airventure in 2021?"
Heck, the way things are going, who thinks there will BE a 2021?
There will be a 2021, but like every new year, we never know what it's going to bring. For me, I'm still flying as much as I can.Quote:
Originally Posted by CHICAGORANDY
With a survival rate of 99.97%, we're over due to get back to living a normal life. Acutally, the only difference in my life is, if a store has a sign that ask you to wear a mask, I usually comply, other than that, life is as usual. Still gathering with family, still gathering with the gang at the airport on Saturdays.
Bob
Quote:
Originally Posted by robert l
Same here......with ONE exception, If a store DEMANDS a mask, I go somewhere else.
Just a hypothetical...... If EAA requires a mask for AirVenture 2021 does that mean you wouldn’t attend??
When the museum reopened they were taking temps, required a signed statement of health and the use of a mask was required for entry. Now that was back in August. Wisconsin got hit pretty hard shortly after Labor Day, don’t know what they are doing now but I’m betting they are still in that mode.
For me that would be an easy yes. Masks required I would opt out.
National trending in infections is not in the right direction. WI has not fared well either. International trends are all over the place from near zero in NZ and OZ to huge spikes in the EU. We know there are a large % of Americans who are mask adverse and have seen the more rural areas having delayed infection rates. Current projections have a wide distribution vaccine available Q2 2021 here in the US. Remembering that AV receives people from all over the world and international corp $ to support the convention there has to be good distribution internationally as well. I expect a number of states will shift to mandatory masks if they haven't already with the current trends.
Will there be a AV21? I was sure we wouldn't have AV20 and 21 is far more a guess. THis is not going away easily especially with the hodge-poge state mandates and unwillingness to follow them.
For those with herd immunity in their narrative ( you know who you are) you need to pick a family member to sacrifice.
With a survival rate of 99.75%, I'll take my chances. In the U.S., airplane accidents have a 95.7% survivability rate and that doesn't seem to deter anyone. To each his own.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Heffelfinger
Bob
The challenge is whether EAA and the state of Wisconsin will take that chance.Quote:
Originally Posted by robert l
Unless something drastically changes, I could see the event requiring masks in the vendor areas, all indoor spaces, and on the showline. I could live with that if I had to.
I'd prefer a better solution (widespread vaccinations), but I'm not sure we'll get there from a science and/or logistics standpoint by the time EAA has to make a call.
Hyperbole
Do we (or anyone else) have a vaccine for ANY virus, We have shots the flue, but is it a "sure-fire" vaccine? I don't think so. We don't even have a "vaccine" for the common cold.
Like Kyle, I could live with wearing a mask in the indoor areas, I'm not into high tech anyway, so the indoor vendors don't hold much for me, and I can skip the museum. I may attend a forum or two, but I am not going to be building anything so I can distance myself pretty good for the most part. On the vaccine, well, I got the flu shot last year and I still got the flu, so I don't trust anybody that says, ok, here it is, we've got you fixed up, just come and get it. Uuuuhhhhh, I'll pass !Quote:
Originally Posted by mbalexander
Bob
Quote:
Originally Posted by robert l
Yeah, the SICKEST my dad and brother EVER got, was the time they got a flu shot. They both swore up and down, that in order to have died, they would've had to have gotten better. I've never had a flu shot.
We have stamped out smallpox worldwide. Polio, measles, and rubella are basically eliminated in the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by mbalexander
And, were these viruses?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle Boatright
Yes, in all four cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by mbalexander
RE the flu - the vaccinations for seasonal flus are a guess which one (s) will be spread in the year. The influenza virus is quite adept at mutating into another strain. So they guess which ones are projected/trending to arrive in the fall and make the vaccines for distribution. It takes months to distribute to the individual clinics and so .....
The flu vaccine isn't 100% for a couple of reasons, namely that "flu" isn't one virus. Each year they give their best shot at what flu strains are going to be prevavlent and choose three or four to include in that years shot. Your argument is entirely specious. We have near total effectiveness for several viruses including polio and smallpox, to the point where those diseases are virtually unheard of.Quote:
Originally Posted by mbalexander
The reason that there is no "common cold" virus is two things. First the "common cold" isn't a single affliction. It's caused by a few different viruses (mostly rhinovirus, but some corona). Second, the affliction is not the public health problem that merits spending a lot of money and other risk trying to forestall.
Thank you Ron, YOu amplified my posting re seasonal flu. Some of the readers may not remember the Polio virus cases in the US and the world. Even after some recovery there were many with post health effects that showed up a decade or 2 later. We are just now recognising that SARS COV-2 has long term health issues - unknown how many, how severe and when they may appear in numbers. Cavaliere attitudes and poor risk management has our numbers where they are -10M infections. With the infectious period prior to signs and high asymptomatic infection rates this is well engineered for a long lifespan. Here is a Youtube video of polio...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ezbEW9QZ4.
Back on thread - Q2 seems like a distribution target in the US. Q2 is also the go/no go for AV. We watch WI for their success in pulling rates down.
Interview with local researchers last night indicated third quarter 2021 for general availability of a vaccine. First deliveries will go the most vulnerable and to health-care workers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Heffelfinger
EAA is going to have quite a headache in handling this, even with a vaccine. Will attendees be required to be vaccinated? What proof will they need to show? Or will just the workers need proof of vaccination, or is there just a sign, "You accept all risk...." We have yet to see how legally effective this would be. Such disclaimers are much weaker if negligence can be shown, and with a contagion, it's easy to claim the defendant didn't clean something properly.
I think EAA dodged a bullet with AirVenture this year. Wisconsin's cases started to rise at the end of August, and if AV *had* been run, there would probably be some folks blaming EAA for the rise in sickness.
The other factor is the cycles we're seeing in the infection rates:
Attachment 8738
(from https://www.worldometers.info)
We've been seeing a peak every three months. Most theories minimize the calendar and blame societal issues (Everyone's going to the beach/school/Halloween parties etc.). But... it could be we'll see another peak right about the time EAA's trying to decide about AV2021. Or, like this year, a peak occurring at the same time as AV2021.
Very, VERY happy I'm not one of the people slated to make the call next May.....
Ron Wanttaja
So Wisconsin did not get really hit until after Labor Day. Why is that significant? Answer - Kids went back to school. Specifically the college kids. My eldest granddaughter went to UW Madison and caught COVID in less than two weeks. She readily admitted that no one was exercising social discipline and that is true for ever college town in the state.
We spent June - October in Wisconsin and avoided the bars completely simply due the lack of social distancing. One of our favorite Friday fish places got closed for a few weeks cause the owners came down with it and they were running their place per the rules. And that was is a fairly rural county.
Even if EAA decides to hold AV, they are still plagued by vehicle parking and people handling issues to the point of being at critical mass even without the virus issues.
One thing is for sure....the AV planners are going to have to consult their ouija boards a lot more over the coming months
Many thanks for providing these facts and figures, Ron. :thumbsup:Quote:
Originally Posted by rwanttaja
The vaccine(s) may not be the 'silver bullet' that we lay-people believe that it will be*. We must remember that the current crop of vaccines which are at the Phase 3 stage are not sterilising vaccines. That is, they do not prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2, they protect the recipient of the vaccine from developing Covid-19. Those who are successfully vaccinated can still spread the virus.
(*) I am not an immunologist, nor a virologist, nor an epidemiologist, so happy to be corrected by any qualified individual who knows more about the subject than I.
I read with alarm that hospitals in our collective second home, Wisconsin, are approaching a tipping point due to the high volume of Covid-19 patients. My best wishes to everyone in the state, and the USA generally, during this medical emergency.
In answer to the original question of this thread: No, I will not be attending in 2021 because it is unlikely that it will be safe to gather in large numbers. My guess is that the EAA will probably cancel it, unless a sterilising vaccine becomes available, is manufactured in large volumes and widely distributed. The same qualification* as above applies to this comment. :)
Good luck to all of you.
Cheers from Melbourne, Australia,
George
I'm still lobbying for 2 weeks for Oshkosh 2021!
... which is why I'm cautiously pessimistic. I'd love to be proven wrong, but too many years trying to estimate if I can make a specific ship-date has taught me that this one is too tight.Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingRon
If a little is good, more is better. Great idea!Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Blum
[QUOTE=For those with herd immunity in their narrative ( you know who you are) you need to pick a family member to sacrifice.[/QUOTE]
EVERY time I hear people use this kind of fear mongering logic I instantly balk. Like they say, "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make 'em drink."
I don't do flu shots, but I do exersise, take supplements, get outdoors, wash my hands and typically distance myself from strangers, even in the best of times.
If they do develop a vaccine it's highly doubtful I'd get the shot, and if government or institutions mandate it I'll resist it even more so.
I value freedom over the illusion of safety.
As for AirVenture 2021 happening, I don't see that happening during a Biden/Harris administration. It's already rumored they will favor lock-downs.
I'm not trying to make this political, but you get what you vote for.
[QUOTE=Ronald Franck;83104]EVERY time I hear people use this kind of fear mongering logic I instantly balk. Like they say, "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make 'em drink."
I don't do flu shots, but I do exersise, take supplements, get outdoors, wash my hands and typically distance myself from strangers, even in the best of times.
If they do develop a vaccine it's highly doubtful I'd get the shot, and if government or institutions mandate it I'll resist it even more so.
I value freedom over the illusion of safety.
As for AirVenture 2021 happening, I don't see that happening during a Biden/Harris administration. It's already rumored they will favor lock-downs.
I'm not trying to make this political, but you get what you vote for.[
My sentiments exactly!!
Then again, if I had a nickel for every Internet comment along the lines of "Bush is going to ruin things by..." or "Obama is going to ruin things by..." or "Trump is going to ruin things by...." that DIDN'T happen... Well, I could hold my OWN Oshkosh.
Ron Wanttaja
Well, we went this year and had a great time even though it was cancelled. We’ll go next year too whether there’s an official event or not.
If there is a national lockdown/restriction, (IMO should have been done in April) it will be about 6-8 weeks. Look at OZ and NZ , Taiwan, S Korea. This is like a loan - quick big pay off or long expensive compound interest. We are in the latter. I am still seeing chapter posts of running young eagles events with no masks in sight and food service with everyone handling the buffet utensils. I am in Sacramento and we just returned to purple - again. Montana and the Dakotas are in hospital overwhelm. Please be safe out there.... if not for yourself then for your neighbor.
I didn't used to get flu shots but my daughter made it clear early on that we weren't going to be able to see the grandbabies without a flu shot and DPT. Fortunately, I had cut my hand a few months earlier and ended up getting stitches at the doc-in-a-box. They didn't have any straight tetanus shots to give me, so I got a DTaP. Our local supermarket gives out flu shots and gives you a $10 gift card so you can buy yourself a lollipop afterward.
I'll probably go and get a shingles vaccine when I have time. I have had chicken pox as a kid and my wife has had shingles as an adult and there are some bad side effects that do crop up.
The damage to sense of smell is enough to scare me into being careful with COVID if nothing else. I'm a certified wine judge and am probably sitting on over $100,000 of wine and don't want to risk not being able to enjoy those.
The truth is whatever public health mandates exist come next Spring could take the decision to hold AV 2021 out of EAA’s hands.
Last month the governor reinstated mandates citing increasing infection and death rates amongst various age groups. Of course there were no goals provided for the cancellation of this order. One of the mandates restricts building occupancy to 25%. This alone IMO would make conducting AV difficult at best. Wanna bet it’s still in place come April-May time frame?
FYI, I did the shingles vaccine when I turned 50 years ago, it was no big deal.
I'm still planning to go, and like so many have said, we won't know until they let us know. But untill then, it's full speed aheads!
Oh, Airmutt: FYI, I did the shingles vaccine when I turned 50 years ago, it was no big deal. That's before they wanted to implant a chip in everyone !!! Lol
Bob, we don't need no stinkin" chip !
My daughter works for one of the hospitals that is reaching a "tipping point". She said one of the biggest reasons for that is the nursing homes in WI are not allowing ANY new patients into their care from the hospitals. So patients that may have stayed in the hospital for just a few days and then went to a nursing home for recovery are no longer able to do that. Hence a bed in the hospital stays full for longer.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeorgeP
That's part of the cascading effect of the pandemic. Hospitals are not only occupied with COVID infectees, they still have to handle "normal" emergencies and the load on resources is increased. In at least one state, they're requiring infected doctors and nurses to keep working...they're all they have. "Regular" surgery, even stuff like cancer surgery, is being postponed because the hospitals can't handle it.Quote:
Originally Posted by krw920
My 95-year-old Dad, in a nursing home, is having some mental health issues due to loneliness....since March, outside visits are limited to one person, one hour a week, and most of the other residents are staying away from the group areas. Looking at the stats for Minnesota (where he lives), I don't think his situation will improve soon.
Attachment 8745
(from https://www.worldometers.info/corona...usa/minnesota/)
News report today said that about half the population says they won't get a vaccine, when it's available. So if major events (like AirVenture) require vaccination to attend, that's going to be a huge PR problem.
Ron Wanttaja