Oshkosh 2021?

[Mike Kitslaar]

Who thinks there will be an Airventure in 2021?

[FlyingRon]

Cautiously optimistic. It will take widespread distribution of a vaccine. I think the "drop dead" date for the EAA making a decision was around mid-May this year. They may be able to improve on that given that they have more lead time next year.

[steve]

During the last EAA Chapter Video, Charlie Becker said there WILL be an Airventure Oshkosh 2021. So there ya go.

[mbalexander]

Cautiously optimistic. It will take widespread distribution of a vaccine. I think the "drop dead" date for the EAA making a decision was around mid-May this year. They may be able to improve on that given that they have more lead time next year.


We won't need a vaccine in a couple of months.......:thumbsup:

[robert l]

I've never thought they wouldn't have it, and I'll bet it's going to be spectacular. I've already been making plans to fly my 1966 Cessna 150, gathering light weight camping gear and started my 30 lb weight loss program. Oshkosh is like a kid waiting for Christmas !
Bob

[Airmutt]

Agree with Ron......with today’s ROEs in place I would be cautiously optimistic. It’s going to take widespread availability of a vaccine and acceptance for any large crowd event to get back to “normal”.

[CHICAGORANDY]

"Who thinks there will be an Airventure in 2021?"

Heck, the way things are going, who thinks there will BE a 2021?

[robert l]

"Who thinks there will be an Airventure in 2021?"

Heck, the way things are going, who thinks there will BE a 2021?

There will be a 2021, but like every new year, we never know what it's going to bring. For me, I'm still flying as much as I can.
With a survival rate of 99.97%, we're over due to get back to living a normal life. Acutally, the only difference in my life is, if a store has a sign that ask you to wear a mask, I usually comply, other than that, life is as usual. Still gathering with family, still gathering with the gang at the airport on Saturdays.
Bob

[malexander]

There will be a 2021, but like every new year, we never know what it's going to bring. For me, I'm still flying as much as I can.
With a survival rate of 99.97%, we're over due to get back to living a normal life. Acutally, the only difference in my life is, if a store has a sign that ask you to wear a mask, I usually comply, other than that, life is as usual. Still gathering with family, still gathering with the gang at the airport on Saturdays.
Bob


Same here......with ONE exception, If a store DEMANDS a mask, I go somewhere else.

[Airmutt]

Just a hypothetical...... If EAA requires a mask for AirVenture 2021 does that mean you wouldn’t attend??

When the museum reopened they were taking temps, required a signed statement of health and the use of a mask was required for entry. Now that was back in August. Wisconsin got hit pretty hard shortly after Labor Day, don’t know what they are doing now but I’m betting they are still in that mode.

[RickFE]

For me that would be an easy yes. Masks required I would opt out.

[Jim Heffelfinger]

National trending in infections is not in the right direction. WI has not fared well either. International trends are all over the place from near zero in NZ and OZ to huge spikes in the EU. We know there are a large % of Americans who are mask adverse and have seen the more rural areas having delayed infection rates. Current projections have a wide distribution vaccine available Q2 2021 here in the US. Remembering that AV receives people from all over the world and international corp $ to support the convention there has to be good distribution internationally as well. I expect a number of states will shift to mandatory masks if they haven't already with the current trends.
Will there be a AV21? I was sure we wouldn't have AV20 and 21 is far more a guess. THis is not going away easily especially with the hodge-poge state mandates and unwillingness to follow them.
For those with herd immunity in their narrative ( you know who you are) you need to pick a family member to sacrifice.

[robert l]

National trending in infections is not in the right direction. WI has not fared well either. International trends are all over the place from near zero in NZ and OZ to huge spikes in the EU. We know there are a large % of Americans who are mask adverse and have seen the more rural areas having delayed infection rates. Current projections have a wide distribution vaccine available Q2 2021 here in the US. Remembering that AV receives people from all over the world and international corp $ to support the convention there has to be good distribution internationally as well. I expect a number of states will shift to mandatory masks if they haven't already with the current trends.
Will there be a AV21? I was sure we wouldn't have AV20 and 21 is far more a guess. THis is not going away easily especially with the hodge-poge state mandates and unwillingness to follow them.
For those with herd immunity in their narrative ( you know who you are) you need to pick a family member to sacrifice.

With a survival rate of 99.75%, I'll take my chances. In the U.S., airplane accidents have a 95.7% survivability rate and that doesn't seem to deter anyone. To each his own.
Bob

[Kyle Boatright]

With a survival rate of 99.75%, I'll take my chances.
Bob

The challenge is whether EAA and the state of Wisconsin will take that chance.

Unless something drastically changes, I could see the event requiring masks in the vendor areas, all indoor spaces, and on the showline. I could live with that if I had to.

I'd prefer a better solution (widespread vaccinations), but I'm not sure we'll get there from a science and/or logistics standpoint by the time EAA has to make a call.

[RickFE]

Hyperbole

[mbalexander]

Do we (or anyone else) have a vaccine for ANY virus, We have shots the flue, but is it a "sure-fire" vaccine? I don't think so. We don't even have a "vaccine" for the common cold.

[robert l]

Do we (or anyone else) have a vaccine for ANY virus, We have shots the flue, but is it a "sure-fire" vaccine? I don't think so. We don't even have a "vaccine" for the common cold.

Like Kyle, I could live with wearing a mask in the indoor areas, I'm not into high tech anyway, so the indoor vendors don't hold much for me, and I can skip the museum. I may attend a forum or two, but I am not going to be building anything so I can distance myself pretty good for the most part. On the vaccine, well, I got the flu shot last year and I still got the flu, so I don't trust anybody that says, ok, here it is, we've got you fixed up, just come and get it. Uuuuhhhhh, I'll pass !
Bob

[mbalexander]

Like Kyle, I could live with wearing a mask in the indoor areas, I'm not into high tech anyway, so the indoor vendors don't hold much for me, and I can skip the museum. I may attend a forum or two, but I am not going to be building anything so I can distance myself pretty good for the most part. On the vaccine, well, I got the flu shot last year and I still got the flu, so I don't trust anybody that says, ok, here it is, we've got you fixed up, just come and get it. Uuuuhhhhh, I'll pass !
Bob


Yeah, the SICKEST my dad and brother EVER got, was the time they got a flu shot. They both swore up and down, that in order to have died, they would've had to have gotten better. I've never had a flu shot.

[Kyle Boatright]

Do we (or anyone else) have a vaccine for ANY virus, We have shots the flue, but is it a "sure-fire" vaccine? I don't think so. We don't even have a "vaccine" for the common cold.

We have stamped out smallpox worldwide. Polio, measles, and rubella are basically eliminated in the US.

[mbalexander]

We have stamped out smallpox worldwide. Polio, measles, and rubella are basically eliminated in the US.

And, were these viruses?

[Kyle Boatright]

And, were these viruses?

Yes, in all four cases.

[Jim Heffelfinger]

RE the flu - the vaccinations for seasonal flus are a guess which one (s) will be spread in the year. The influenza virus is quite adept at mutating into another strain. So they guess which ones are projected/trending to arrive in the fall and make the vaccines for distribution. It takes months to distribute to the individual clinics and so .....

[FlyingRon]

Do we (or anyone else) have a vaccine for ANY virus, We have shots the flue, but is it a "sure-fire" vaccine? I don't think so. We don't even have a "vaccine" for the common cold.

The flu vaccine isn't 100% for a couple of reasons, namely that "flu" isn't one virus. Each year they give their best shot at what flu strains are going to be prevavlent and choose three or four to include in that years shot. Your argument is entirely specious. We have near total effectiveness for several viruses including polio and smallpox, to the point where those diseases are virtually unheard of.

The reason that there is no "common cold" virus is two things. First the "common cold" isn't a single affliction. It's caused by a few different viruses (mostly rhinovirus, but some corona). Second, the affliction is not the public health problem that merits spending a lot of money and other risk trying to forestall.

[Jim Heffelfinger]

Thank you Ron, YOu amplified my posting re seasonal flu. Some of the readers may not remember the Polio virus cases in the US and the world. Even after some recovery there were many with post health effects that showed up a decade or 2 later. We are just now recognising that SARS COV-2 has long term health issues - unknown how many, how severe and when they may appear in numbers. Cavaliere attitudes and poor risk management has our numbers where they are -10M infections. With the infectious period prior to signs and high asymptomatic infection rates this is well engineered for a long lifespan. Here is a Youtube video of polio...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ezbEW9QZ4.
Back on thread - Q2 seems like a distribution target in the US. Q2 is also the go/no go for AV. We watch WI for their success in pulling rates down.

[rwanttaja]

Back on thread - Q2 seems like a distribution target in the US. Q2 is also the go/no go for AV. We watch WI for their success in pulling rates down.
Interview with local researchers last night indicated third quarter 2021 for general availability of a vaccine. First deliveries will go the most vulnerable and to health-care workers.

EAA is going to have quite a headache in handling this, even with a vaccine. Will attendees be required to be vaccinated? What proof will they need to show? Or will just the workers need proof of vaccination, or is there just a sign, "You accept all risk...." We have yet to see how legally effective this would be. Such disclaimers are much weaker if negligence can be shown, and with a contagion, it's easy to claim the defendant didn't clean something properly.

I think EAA dodged a bullet with AirVenture this year. Wisconsin's cases started to rise at the end of August, and if AV *had* been run, there would probably be some folks blaming EAA for the rise in sickness.

The other factor is the cycles we're seeing in the infection rates:
8738
(from https://www.worldometers.info)

We've been seeing a peak every three months. Most theories minimize the calendar and blame societal issues (Everyone's going to the beach/school/Halloween parties etc.). But... it could be we'll see another peak right about the time EAA's trying to decide about AV2021. Or, like this year, a peak occurring at the same time as AV2021.

Very, VERY happy I'm not one of the people slated to make the call next May.....

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

So Wisconsin did not get really hit until after Labor Day. Why is that significant? Answer - Kids went back to school. Specifically the college kids. My eldest granddaughter went to UW Madison and caught COVID in less than two weeks. She readily admitted that no one was exercising social discipline and that is true for ever college town in the state.

We spent June - October in Wisconsin and avoided the bars completely simply due the lack of social distancing. One of our favorite Friday fish places got closed for a few weeks cause the owners came down with it and they were running their place per the rules. And that was is a fairly rural county.

Even if EAA decides to hold AV, they are still plagued by vehicle parking and people handling issues to the point of being at critical mass even without the virus issues.

One thing is for sure....the AV planners are going to have to consult their ouija boards a lot more over the coming months

[GeorgeP]

... First deliveries will go the most vulnerable and to health-care workers.

EAA is going to have quite a headache in handling this, even with a vaccine. Will attendees be required to be vaccinated? What proof will they need to show? Or will just the workers need proof of vaccination, or is there just a sign, "You accept all risk...."

Many thanks for providing these facts and figures, Ron. :thumbsup:

The vaccine(s) may not be the 'silver bullet' that we lay-people believe that it will be*. We must remember that the current crop of vaccines which are at the Phase 3 stage are not sterilising vaccines. That is, they do not prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2, they protect the recipient of the vaccine from developing Covid-19. Those who are successfully vaccinated can still spread the virus.

(*) I am not an immunologist, nor a virologist, nor an epidemiologist, so happy to be corrected by any qualified individual who knows more about the subject than I.

I read with alarm that hospitals in our collective second home, Wisconsin, are approaching a tipping point due to the high volume of Covid-19 patients. My best wishes to everyone in the state, and the USA generally, during this medical emergency.

In answer to the original question of this thread: No, I will not be attending in 2021 because it is unlikely that it will be safe to gather in large numbers. My guess is that the EAA will probably cancel it, unless a sterilising vaccine becomes available, is manufactured in large volumes and widely distributed. The same qualification* as above applies to this comment. :)

Good luck to all of you.

Cheers from Melbourne, Australia,

George

[Ron Blum]

I'm still lobbying for 2 weeks for Oshkosh 2021!

[Aviatrexx]

Cautiously optimistic. It will take widespread distribution of a vaccine. I think the "drop dead" date for the EAA making a decision was around mid-May this year. They may be able to improve on that given that they have more lead time next year.

... which is why I'm cautiously pessimistic. I'd love to be proven wrong, but too many years trying to estimate if I can make a specific ship-date has taught me that this one is too tight.

[Mike Kitslaar]

I'm still lobbying for 2 weeks for Oshkosh 2021!
If a little is good, more is better. Great idea!

[Ronald Franck]

[QUOTE=For those with herd immunity in their narrative ( you know who you are) you need to pick a family member to sacrifice.[/QUOTE]

EVERY time I hear people use this kind of fear mongering logic I instantly balk. Like they say, "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make 'em drink."
I don't do flu shots, but I do exersise, take supplements, get outdoors, wash my hands and typically distance myself from strangers, even in the best of times.
If they do develop a vaccine it's highly doubtful I'd get the shot, and if government or institutions mandate it I'll resist it even more so.
I value freedom over the illusion of safety.
As for AirVenture 2021 happening, I don't see that happening during a Biden/Harris administration. It's already rumored they will favor lock-downs.
I'm not trying to make this political, but you get what you vote for.

[malexander]

[QUOTE=Ronald Franck;83104]EVERY time I hear people use this kind of fear mongering logic I instantly balk. Like they say, "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make 'em drink."
I don't do flu shots, but I do exersise, take supplements, get outdoors, wash my hands and typically distance myself from strangers, even in the best of times.
If they do develop a vaccine it's highly doubtful I'd get the shot, and if government or institutions mandate it I'll resist it even more so.
I value freedom over the illusion of safety.
As for AirVenture 2021 happening, I don't see that happening during a Biden/Harris administration. It's already rumored they will favor lock-downs.
I'm not trying to make this political, but you get what you vote for.[


My sentiments exactly!!

[rwanttaja]

Then again, if I had a nickel for every Internet comment along the lines of "Bush is going to ruin things by..." or "Obama is going to ruin things by..." or "Trump is going to ruin things by...." that DIDN'T happen... Well, I could hold my OWN Oshkosh.

Ron Wanttaja

[Auburntsts]

Well, we went this year and had a great time even though it was cancelled. We’ll go next year too whether there’s an official event or not.

[Jim Heffelfinger]

If there is a national lockdown/restriction, (IMO should have been done in April) it will be about 6-8 weeks. Look at OZ and NZ , Taiwan, S Korea. This is like a loan - quick big pay off or long expensive compound interest. We are in the latter. I am still seeing chapter posts of running young eagles events with no masks in sight and food service with everyone handling the buffet utensils. I am in Sacramento and we just returned to purple - again. Montana and the Dakotas are in hospital overwhelm. Please be safe out there.... if not for yourself then for your neighbor.

[FlyingRon]

I didn't used to get flu shots but my daughter made it clear early on that we weren't going to be able to see the grandbabies without a flu shot and DPT. Fortunately, I had cut my hand a few months earlier and ended up getting stitches at the doc-in-a-box. They didn't have any straight tetanus shots to give me, so I got a DTaP. Our local supermarket gives out flu shots and gives you a $10 gift card so you can buy yourself a lollipop afterward.

I'll probably go and get a shingles vaccine when I have time. I have had chicken pox as a kid and my wife has had shingles as an adult and there are some bad side effects that do crop up.

The damage to sense of smell is enough to scare me into being careful with COVID if nothing else. I'm a certified wine judge and am probably sitting on over $100,000 of wine and don't want to risk not being able to enjoy those.

[Airmutt]

The truth is whatever public health mandates exist come next Spring could take the decision to hold AV 2021 out of EAA’s hands.

Last month the governor reinstated mandates citing increasing infection and death rates amongst various age groups. Of course there were no goals provided for the cancellation of this order. One of the mandates restricts building occupancy to 25%. This alone IMO would make conducting AV difficult at best. Wanna bet it’s still in place come April-May time frame?

FYI, I did the shingles vaccine when I turned 50 years ago, it was no big deal.

[robert l]

I'm still planning to go, and like so many have said, we won't know until they let us know. But untill then, it's full speed aheads!
Oh, Airmutt: FYI, I did the shingles vaccine when I turned 50 years ago, it was no big deal. That's before they wanted to implant a chip in everyone !!! Lol
Bob, we don't need no stinkin" chip !

[krw920]

Many thanks for providing these facts and figures, Ron. :thumbsup:


I read with alarm that hospitals in our collective second home, Wisconsin, are approaching a tipping point due to the high volume of Covid-19 patients. My best wishes to everyone in the state, and the USA generally, during this medical emergency.

George
My daughter works for one of the hospitals that is reaching a "tipping point". She said one of the biggest reasons for that is the nursing homes in WI are not allowing ANY new patients into their care from the hospitals. So patients that may have stayed in the hospital for just a few days and then went to a nursing home for recovery are no longer able to do that. Hence a bed in the hospital stays full for longer.

[rwanttaja]

My daughter works for one of the hospitals that is reaching a "tipping point". She said one of the biggest reasons for that is the nursing homes in WI are not allowing ANY new patients into their care from the hospitals. So patients that may have stayed in the hospital for just a few days and then went to a nursing home for recovery are no longer able to do that. Hence a bed in the hospital stays full for longer.
That's part of the cascading effect of the pandemic. Hospitals are not only occupied with COVID infectees, they still have to handle "normal" emergencies and the load on resources is increased. In at least one state, they're requiring infected doctors and nurses to keep working...they're all they have. "Regular" surgery, even stuff like cancer surgery, is being postponed because the hospitals can't handle it.

My 95-year-old Dad, in a nursing home, is having some mental health issues due to loneliness....since March, outside visits are limited to one person, one hour a week, and most of the other residents are staying away from the group areas. Looking at the stats for Minnesota (where he lives), I don't think his situation will improve soon.

8745
(from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/minnesota/)

News report today said that about half the population says they won't get a vaccine, when it's available. So if major events (like AirVenture) require vaccination to attend, that's going to be a huge PR problem.

Ron Wanttaja

[malexander]

Well, we went this year and had a great time even though it was cancelled. We’ll go next year too whether there’s an official event or not.


Glad to have met you guys. We'll do the same.

[Eric Page]

My 95-year-old Dad, in a nursing home, is having some mental health issues due to loneliness....since March, outside visits are limited to one person, one hour a week, and most of the other residents are staying away from the group areas. Looking at the stats for Minnesota (where he lives), I don't think his situation will improve soon.
As someone with elderly parents myself, I'm very sorry to hear this, Ron. Apart from the deaths it causes, the isolation and loneliness, particularly of elderly and vulnerable people, has to be the cruelest part of the pandemic. I hope your Dad can get some effective help, and more meaningful visits from family and friends, very soon.

[Auburntsts]

Glad to have met you guys. We'll do the same.

Us too—sounds like a plan!

[N3kf]

Darn, been a while since I visited the group. Just thought wonder if anybody is thinking about Osh21. Yikes, quite a bit to read.

I'll stay optimistic, but this thread sure put a damper on that.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

[CHICAGORANDY]

Darn, been a while since I visited the group. Just thought wonder if anybody is thinking about Osh21. Yikes, quite a bit to read.

I'll stay optimistic, but this thread sure put a damper on that.

Covid 19 has put on damper on "Life as we used to know it" to be sure. In truth my sole optimism as a 71yr old retiree for living a 'new normal' anytime before I eventually die arises from appreciating the sheer talent and brilliance of pharmaceutical researchers and their highly profit based companies who WILL develop VERY profitable, full functioning vaccines and other palliatives to combat this disease and its symptoms.

I get a flu shot every year and thanks to that limited protection and great symptom relieving meds I really don't 'worry' about the flu killing me or putting me on a ventilator in an ICU. When the same can be said for this new virus? Life and society at large WILL blissfully move on and internationally attended events WILL again happen...... along with schools, restaurants, movie theaters, sports arenas etc.etc.etc. being allowed to function.

[robert l]

Covid 19 has put on damper on "Life as we used to know it" to be sure. In truth my sole optimism as a 71yr old retiree for living a 'new normal' anytime before I eventually die arises from appreciating the sheer talent and brilliance of pharmaceutical researchers and their highly profit based companies who WILL develop VERY profitable, full functioning vaccines and other palliatives to combat this disease and its symptoms.

I get a flu shot every year and thanks to that limited protection and great symptom relieving meds I really don't 'worry' about the flu killing me or putting me on a ventilator in an ICU. When the same can be said for this new virus? Life and society at large WILL blissfully move on and internationally attended events WILL again happen...... along with schools, restaurants, movie theaters, sports arenas etc.etc.etc. being allowed to function.

Well I guess living in a, very, small town has it up side, (I wouldn't have it any other way). I'm 74 and my life hasn't changed at all, we get together with family, shake hands and hug, no mask, but if someone wanted to wear one, that's fine too. I still get together with the group at the airport, no hugs though, mainly fist bumps, and we sit in the same room and eat pizza from the same box, or go out to a restaurant and all sit together, normally. Shopping at the big box stores, and the little home town hardware stores, for the most part is the same. If the store has a sign that requires a mask, I generally put one on, sometimes I will take if off after seeing the majority of people not wearing one. I see people wearing mask in their cars, ridding bicycles and walking alone and no one is within 50 feet of them. I believe the virus is real but I don't consider it, "The Plague" and I do take some precautions, same as I would for the flu, but a vaccine that's been rushed through, I think I'll hold off on that. The fact that Bill Gates is pushing for everyone to get vaccinated makes me wonder, what does he know about immunology??? BUT, if A/V 2021 is on, I plan on being there, if I have to sign a waiver, so be it.
Bob

[Jim Heffelfinger]

"Well I guess living in a, very, small town has it up side, "......... Heath Springs, SC pop ~1000, Lancaster County pop ~ 100k 3,095 cases with 19 added in the last day, 64 deaths, You are indeed isolated a bit but so was No and So Dakota and Wyoming. As you know many of the current cases are from gatherings of friends and family. Be safe Bob. Hope to see you a AV__(?)

[mbalexander]

Well I guess living in a, very, small town has it up side, (I wouldn't have it any other way). I'm 74 and my life hasn't changed at all, we get together with family, shake hands and hug, no mask, but if someone wanted to wear one, that's fine too. I still get together with the group at the airport, no hugs though, mainly fist bumps, and we sit in the same room and eat pizza from the same box, or go out to a restaurant and all sit together, normally. Shopping at the big box stores, and the little home town hardware stores, for the most part is the same. If the store has a sign that requires a mask, I generally put one on, sometimes I will take if off after seeing the majority of people not wearing one. I see people wearing mask in their cars, ridding bicycles and walking alone and no one is within 50 feet of them. I believe the virus is real but I don't consider it, "The Plague" and I do take some precautions, same as I would for the flu, but a vaccine that's been rushed through, I think I'll hold off on that. The fact that Bill Gates is pushing for everyone to get vaccinated makes me wonder, what does he know about immunology??? BUT, if A/V 2021 is on, I plan on being there, if I have to sign a waiver, so be it.
Bob


Same here....couldn't have said it any better myself. I'm a 61 y/o plumber/electrician. The only thing that's changed for me is, I've never busier than I am right now.

[robert l]

Jim, I'm not a dare devil, but I don't think everybody I see is a Covid carrier either. I am almost positive I had Covid last January, really bad for about 2 weeks, but I never thought I was goning to die. Getting sick occasionally is part of life and we just deal with it. There are a lot of things in this world that can kill you and people die everyday from them, but my focus is on living. I finally own an airplane that I can fly anytime I want, so I think more about living and enjoying what time I have left on this earth, and sky, than I do about dying. mbalexander, glad you have plenty of work, more money for A/V! Perhaps we will meet up at Oshkosh next year.
Bob

[Airmutt]

Bob, the good news you probably didn’t have COVID back in January. The virus was just being detected in December/January and all those cases were associated with air travel. Community transfer didn’t really take hold until late January/February and that started on the west coast.

Not sure I agree with your small town theory. We have a cabin in Wisconsin and the county population is just over 50k yet the number of deaths has skyrocketed to over 110. Don’t know why. Is it lack of access to medical treatment, the age demographics of the population or something else?? Just glad we closed up and headed south before things got out of control.

[rwanttaja]

Bob, the good news you probably didn’t have COVID back in January. The virus was just being detected in December/January and all those cases were associated with air travel. Community transfer didn’t really take hold until late January/February and that started on the west coast.

Not sure I agree with your small town theory. We have a cabin in Wisconsin and the county population is just over 50k yet the number of deaths has skyrocketed to over 110. Don’t know why. Is it lack of access to medical treatment, the age demographics of the population or something else?? Just glad we closed up and headed south before things got out of control.
Probably a byproduct on how hard COVID hit the more-populous states. All the emphasis in the first three months was how bad it was in New York, New Jersey, California, etc. It certainly was possible that those in more rural environments saw COVID as a heavy-population issue.

Combine that with rural areas being more conservative, and many people believing that wearing masks/social distancing was something only liberals did. This is basically what I think happened in North Dakota, my home state, and is probably why it currently leads the world in the number of infections vs. population size.

This is interesting. It gives a time/history of individual states' COVID rates, stepping through day-by-day since June. Each state's bar indicates its political bent.

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

Couple that, sadly, with less medical infrastructure in rural areas. Living in the Seattle area, I've got three major hospitals within 15 minutes of me, and massive medical resources within the county. Rural America has problems retaining medical staff (can't pay off student loans at a small country hospital) and the facilities themselves are smaller. So when it DOES hit, they can't handle it as well.

Ron Wanttaja

[DaleB]

North Dakota, my home state, and is probably why it currently leads the world in the number of infections vs. population size.
To be fair, though, that only takes -- what, a dozen cases?

:) I kid, I kid!!!

[rwanttaja]

North Dakota, my home state, and is probably why it currently leads the world in the number of infections vs. population size.To be fair, though, that only takes -- what, a dozen cases?
And a six-pack.

Of Copenhagen. :-)

Ron "Uf Da" Wanttaja

[streffpilot]

Am I the only one here who just wants to know one way or another? It's the uncertainty that is most annoying.

[FlyingRon]

Am I the only one here who just wants to know one way or another? It's the uncertainty that is most annoying.
Come back at the end of May and we'll let you know :)

[Jeff Point]

Come back at the end of May and we'll let you know :)
Gee Ron that's kind of pessimistic. This year we knew by the beginning ​of May. ;)

[streffpilot]

Come back at the end of May and we'll let you know :)


More like.....In August, I'll tell you what happened. I don't really expect there to be an Osh this July in all reality. Sadly.........

(and my kids are going to be more pissed than I will be)

[azmedic85355]

I’m not holding my breath


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[robert l]

I'm not holding my breath either, but, I'm still making plans to go.
Bob

[CHICAGORANDY]

I have my humble motel room safely booked and the Tram Bosses know my conducting schedule availability as always so I 'plan' on being there.... just like I 'planned' for this year. Global availability of a viable vaccine may well be key to the AirVenture decision so I have my doubts for 2021. I have NO idea if there will be sufficient doses available for all the people in the USA, let alone all who would normally travel to Wisconsin from the rest of the globe.

[FlyingRon]

just like I did last year.
So did you just ride around in the back of a city bus making bad jokes or what?

[streffpilot]

So did you just ride around in the back of a city bus making bad jokes or what?

He saves the good jokes for the city bus...we get the bad ones..........

I really hope it happens this year. I'm of the younger variety of airplane geeks, so my family and I will be there if it's open.......but I do understand that others will have to make a different decision based on their own health status.

[rwanttaja]

The national authorities say that anyone that wants a vaccination should be able to get one by June. At that point, one can assume that anyone who DOESN'T get vaccinated is accepting the risk. That's close enough to EAA's decision point that they should be able to judge whether to schedule the show.

Be interesting to see what happens to Sun-N-Fun, though.

Ron Wanttaja

[streffpilot]

I'm expecting SNF to cancel. I've actually never been, but I'd be sad to see them cancel. OSH is an unknown. If I had an extra dollar, I'd probably put it on the cancel side, but I'd risk 99 cents on the go side.....

[Airmutt]

I was actually surprised that EAA made the statement this far out. Personally I don’t think the vaccine availability/acceptance is going to happen in time to reduce the COVID numbers to permit large crowd events. Will also be interesting to see just where Wisconsin’s governor comes down on this issue next Spring. He could play the role of the great spoiler:(

[robert l]

Pretty soon we may be meeting in basements and barns like the French Underground.
Bob

[CHICAGORANDY]

So did you just ride around in the back of a city bus making bad jokes or what?

I think I've correctly corrected my incorrect sentence to make a little more sense? But..............

If I have $5 in one pocket and $5 in the other pocket, what do I have?

Someone else's pants on.

or.....

How do you know if it’s a bull or a milk cow?
It’s either one or the udder.

or......

What do you call a can opener that doesn’t work?


A can’t opener!

and finally.... for now.....

My technology impaired friend told me they are finally going to get into those new-fangled 'computer things' they've been hearing about for decades now and went out on their own and bought themselves an Apple.

I asked "What kind?"

They told me "Granny Smith.".... It's gonna be an uphill climb......

[CarlOrton]

Pretty soon we may be meeting in basements and barns like the French Underground.
Bob

Isn’t that where EAA meetings started?!? Well, at least the basement part.

[rwanttaja]

I was actually surprised that EAA made the statement this far out. Personally I don’t think the vaccine availability/acceptance is going to happen in time to reduce the COVID numbers to permit large crowd events.

Availability is certainly up in the air right now; we're being told that everyone who wants the vaccine will be able to get it by June, but A) These are government people talking, and B) Their lips are moving.

Acceptance? Hmmm. I think we'll see some legislative action to prevent lawsuits if one catches COVID after refusing a vaccine. I think the push will be on to vaccinate everyone WORKING at AirVenture, but other than clear warnings, they probably won't require visitors to be vaccinated.

The problem EAA has is trying to estimate attendance. There are still going to be a lot of people reluctant to join in large groups, and we still don't know when the international travel bands will end.


Will also be interesting to see just where Wisconsin’s governor comes down on this issue next Spring. He could play the role of the great spoiler

Once a vaccine is generally available, I think the push towards "normalcy" is going to overwhelming. The rates will start dropping, and the states will re-open. Hopefully, it'll be timed well enough so that the vaccine prevents another spike.

Ron Wanttaja

[Jim Heffelfinger]

Have to agree with Ron. We could have distribution starting this month based on approvals at FDA. CDC just put out a plan of distribution - and without "administration involvement" it actually might happen. Based on that it looks like the general population [US] might have full access by June/July My concern is the international travelers access and the seemingly 30% of the US population that is currently apposed to getting it. That places us at fall before enough herd immunity protects those not vaccinated. I have family at J&J who are a bit further down the curve but are testing a vaccine that is single dose and not requiring super freezers that will be much easier for distribution. I am infinitely frustrated that this pandemic was so egregiously dismissed here in the US.

[robert l]

Isn’t that where EAA meetings started?!? Well, at least the basement part.

OK, But I was thinking more along the lines of, The Gestapo! Too many people gathering in one spot, are y'all conspiring against the government, are y'all breaking the law in there, come out with your hands up !!!
Bob

[Airmutt]

Your papers, please. .....Mein herr your papers are not in order!

[GeorgeP]

... That places us at fall before enough herd immunity protects those not vaccinated...
G'day Jim and other EAAers.

I don't believe that any of the manufacturers of the current crop of vaccines are claiming that their vaccine will prevent infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, just that it will prevent severe, and potentially life-threatening, illness after infection. That is, anyone who is vaccinated can still be infected by the virus and spread it to others. I understand that herd immunity will only be achieved once a vaccine can prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. As I have previously stated, I'm not a virologist, so I'd be happy to be corrected by anyone who is qualified.

Sadly, I think that it is highly likely that Osh. '21 will be cancelled. I hope that you all stay safe and healthy.

Cheers from Australia.

[rwanttaja]

G'day Jim and other EAAers.

I don't believe that any of the manufacturers of the current crop of vaccines are claiming that their vaccine will prevent infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, just that it will prevent severe, and potentially life-threatening, illness after infection. That is, anyone who is vaccinated can still be infected by the virus and spread it to others. I understand that herd immunity will only be achieved once a vaccine can prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. As I have previously stated, I'm not a virologist, so I'd be happy to be corrected by anyone who is qualified.
Pfizer press release:

"Primary efficacy analysis demonstrates BNT162b2 to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose;170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group"

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

Perhaps you're thinking of the report on the effectiveness of the Moderna vaccine. They report a similar effectiveness of around 94%, PLUS the remaining 6% who did develop COVID had mild cases rather than severe ones.

"Vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 was 94.1%; vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 was 100%"

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study

Ron Wanttaja

[GeorgeP]

Hey Ron, many thanks for your response and the hyperlinks 👍

Apologies if my previous post was so poorly written that the intended message was not clear. My Year 9 English teacher would be very disappointed with my performance.

Covid-19 is the disease that results from a SARS-CoV-2 virus infection. The vaccines will prevent the disease developing after someone one is infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. I cannot recall any of the manufacturers claiming that their vaccine will prevent the virus from infecting a vaccinated person.

Stay safe.

[rwanttaja]

EAA is going to have quite a headache in handling this, even with a vaccine. Will attendees be required to be vaccinated? What proof will they need to show?
The CDC has released information as to the cards those receiving vaccines will be issued:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/health/covid-19-vaccination-kit-record-card/index.html

Of course, they'll be easy to forge....

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

My doc told me it would be probably be May/June timeframe for the average folks to get a vaccination.
So what is the timing between doses? Can’t seem to find the answer on that. Interesting that the card had lines for up to four entries. Are they telegraphing something we don’t know? Also reading that several carriers and the IATA are kicking around the idea of a vaccination passport for international traveler.
The real question is this all gonna happen in time to save AV2021.

[steve]

Given that most EAA'ers are members of the Silent and Boomer generations, we will be vaccinated by 1Q 2021. Let's hear it for Silent-Boomer-Venture '21. ;););)

[Lindberg]

Yeah, the SICKEST my dad and brother EVER got, was the time they got a flu shot. They both swore up and down, that in order to have died, they would've had to have gotten better. I've never had a flu shot. That's how I thought until I caught the swine flu many years ago. It was the sickest I have ever been. Now, I get a flu shot every year and have never caught the flu. I'll be ready for the coronavirus vaccine as soon as I can get it. I'm 73 years old now and want to see few more AirVentures (have never missed one since 1985) before I fly West. And, NO, I did not miss one this year because they did not have one to miss, but I still bought the T shirt.

[Jim Heffelfinger]

The speculation on all of this is whether national is willing to roll the dice hoping for distribution and effectiveness by mid July. In addition, are we able to have enough early birds to get the grounds and facilities up to par starting in June? The most recent relief act includes exemption from liability litigation for businesses - the one that will be in McConnell's hands. It will not be an easy decision. I was able to make AV19 and feel lucky at that.

[GeorgeP]

...So what is the timing between doses? ...The real question is this all gonna happen in time to save AV2021.G'day DaveI believe the period between doses is 21 days and that full protection occurs seven days after the final dose. The answer to your second question is, "probably not."

[Airmutt]

Thanks George!
I just read an article that suggests that we ultimately go to a three dose regimen. Second shot one month after and the third six months after. Yikes!
Don’t know how it’s gonna go down in your country but with our mobile society getting the second shot is just going to be an administrative nightmare. I’ve also read that full immunization can take anywhere from several days to a couple of weeks. It all depends on the individual; that’s typical for most immunizations. Of course during that time you’re still vulnerable. Great......

[Kyle Boatright]

G'day DaveI believe the period between doses is 21 days and that full protection occurs seven days after the final dose. The answer to your second question is, "probably not."

Maybe it won't be the full enchilada Airventure, but I think a reasonable facsimile of the event will take place. By June/July, anyone who wants to be inoculated will be, and if you aren't vaccinated, YOU get to decide whether to attend. By then, vaccinations and herd immunity will have greatly reduced the number of infected people and really reduced the spread rate.

[GeorgeP]

Thanks George!
I just read an article that suggests that we ultimately go to a three dose regimen. Second shot one month after and the third six months after. Yikes!
Don’t know how it’s gonna go down in your country but with our mobile society getting the second shot is just going to be an administrative nightmare. I’ve also read that full immunization can take anywhere from several days to a couple of weeks. It all depends on the individual; that’s typical for most immunizations. Of course during that time you’re still vulnerable. Great......
No probs. What I omitted was the word, average. Full effect of the vaccination will occur on average seven days after the second shot. One, two, four or six shots, I'll still be getting the vaccination.


Maybe it won't be the full enchilada Airventure, but I think a reasonable facsimile of the event will take place. By June/July, anyone who wants to be inoculated will be, and if you aren't vaccinated, YOU get to decide whether to attend. By then, vaccinations and herd immunity will have greatly reduced the number of infected people and really reduced the spread rate.Many people and media organisations mention herd immunity, but I cannot understand how that will ever happen. None of the manufacturers is saying that their vaccine will prevent the virus infecting (entering) your body; only that the vaccine will prevent/minimise Covid-19 disease after the virus enters your body. I prefer a three-course meal, so if it's only the appetiser being offered by the EAA, I'll wait for full service. ;) :D Hopefully by 2022.

[Airmutt]

I’m with you, I intend to get it regardless the number of doses. I just mentioned it because I believe too many people (not necessarily this forum) think: “A shot on Monday, free to travel the world on Friday.” When in reality the immunization process is more like a month. Couple that with availability of the vaccine to the masses and the timeline to impact AV2021 and most major summer events starts to get very

[Kyle Boatright]

Many people and media organisations mention herd immunity, but I cannot understand how that will ever happen. None of the manufacturers is saying that their vaccine will prevent the virus infecting (entering) your body; only that the vaccine will prevent/minimise Covid-19 disease after the virus enters your body. I prefer a three-course meal, so if it's only the appetiser being offered by the EAA, I'll wait for full service. ;) :D Hopefully by 2022.

By then, 20% (maybe more, maybe less depending...) of the populace will have natural immunity, having contracted the virus. That *helps* reduce spread. Everyone else will have had a chance to be vaccinated. We'll be at (sort of?) steady state post-covid, where you either got it, got inoculated, or chose not to get the vaccine. That's gonna be the situation until the end of time, or a better medical solution comes about... So move ahead, I say. ;-)

[robert l]

Well, like I said, I'm still making plans for A/V 2021 regardless. And since we're talking about Covid vaccines and such, I thought I would just throw this out there.
https://youtu.be/lkGB1-YFn1Q
And on a side note, my wife is going flying with me today for the first time !
Bob

[CHICAGORANDY]

I almost forgot to mention .....

The price of a piece of apple pie in Jamaica is $2.00

The price of a piece of apple pie in the Bahamas is $2.50

These are the pie rates of the Caribbean!

[Airmutt]

Ooooooh or should it be arrrrrrgh???

[rwanttaja]

I almost forgot to mention .....

The price of a piece of apple pie in Jamaica is $2.00

The price of a piece of apple pie in the Bahamas is $2.50

These are the pie rates of the Caribbean!

This is the keyboard they use to take your order.
8748
I think AV2021 will happen, but at a somewhat reduced scale. After the financial losses of 2020, EAA will need to be careful not to over-estimate the attendance in 2021.

Ron Wanttaja

[PaulDow]

I see the 2021 Paris Air Show is already cancelled (June 21 - 27).
I think, as we saw last year, the big deciding factor for our convention isn’t the actual event, it’s whether the preparation can take place.

[rwanttaja]

AVweb weighs in....

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/a-normal-airventure-for-2021-dont-count-on-it/

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

Well, it looks like we’re all in for another six months of wait and see. I’ll think I’ll be holding off on buying my advanced tickets for a while.

[Lindberg]

I am still planning on going to AV2021, but my gut feeling is that it will be cancelled again. Please, God, make me wrong..... Nevertheless, I never thought that they would have a vaccine with 95% efficacy now either. Roll up your sleeves, soldiers, it's here.

[Jim Heffelfinger]

Pfizer and Moderna early out the gate but J&J catching up with a single dose and normal refrigeration will be an influencer. Doses from Pfizer will cover such a small number of our first responders/clinicians and those in long term care. The VA [my provider] has been scrambling for an early supply but natural human greed will show its self again on an international stage. We will watch as the élite will have first dibs.
We will know more in March as the distribution system will have known numbers.

[Lindberg]

Unless they speed up the COVID-19 vaccinations, you can kiss AirVenture 2021 goodbye. Yet, somehow, someway, I think that the vaccine availability will explode in just a few more days.

[robert l]

Unless they speed up the COVID-19 vaccinations, you can kiss AirVenture 2021 goodbye. Yet, somehow, someway, I think that the vaccine availability will explode in just a few more days.

My wife and I are just getting over Covid and at the present time have no plans to get the vaccine.
Bob

[FlyingRon]

Unless they speed up the COVID-19 vaccinations, you can kiss AirVenture 2021 goodbye. Yet, somehow, someway, I think that the vaccine availability will explode in just a few more days.

Doubtful. Even if Biden invokes the Defense Production Act, it will take time to ramp up. His other strategy was to release the allegedly stockpiled second dose reserve, but it turns out that was already gone.

[Jim Heffelfinger]

My wife and I are just getting over Covid and at the present time have no plans to get the vaccine.
Bob

Bob, Hope you guys will have a full recovery.

[Jim Heffelfinger]

Johnson&Johnson about ready for approval. No special refrig and single dose. Unknown how many doses are in stockpile and what their manf rate is.
Even if #46 can get the numbers of doses and implement his plan that gives us 100 million by the first of May. Way less than the 70% needed for herd. International attendees - totally unknown.
The rollout chaos and conflicting information from the last year will take some time to actually have good data on where we are now. We are now seeing clusters internationally for areas once under better control. New variant will be a study in adaptation and a dominant strain very quickly. Data on efficacy of vaccine against this variant is still out
As to the thread - Yes, we will VERY unlikely see a AV21.
Everyone remain healthy and do your part to help others to remain so.

[Lindberg]

Johnson&Johnson about ready for approval. No special refrig and single dose. Unknown how many doses are in stockpile and what their manf rate is.
Even if #46 can get the numbers of doses and implement his plan that gives us 100 million by the first of May. Way less than the 70% needed for herd. International attendees - totally unknown.
The rollout chaos and conflicting information from the last year will take some time to actually have good data on where we are now. We are now seeing clusters internationally for areas once under better control. New variant will be a study in adaptation and a dominant strain very quickly. Data on efficacy of vaccine against this variant is still out
As to the thread - Yes, we will VERY unlikely see a AV21.
Everyone remain healthy and do your part to help others to remain so. I hope your are right. I have only missed one AirVenture since my first one in 1985 and that was AV2020. I flew in and camped for 25 years. I have made my dorm reservations at UW-OSH, and I have scheduled my COVID-19 vaccinations. I am planning on going, but I hear voices and those voices tell me to plan on being disappointed. So, I will hope for the best and plan on the worst. Another thing to consider is that they should soon know if the vaccination also prevents the spread of the virus. If that is the case then there might be a requirement to have been vaccinated to attend large public gatherings. Whatever. If it means that I would have to be vaccinated with a 10 inch needle in each of my gluteus maximus muscles in order to attend AV2021, I will be one of many standing at the bars rather than sitting.

[robert l]

Bob, Hope you guys will have a full recovery.

Thanks Jim, My wife went back to work last Thursday, 1/14 after 10 days of quarantine, she's a nurse at the hospital that was ground zero for S.C. I'm a good bit older that she is so I don't work anymore. Well, I don't get paid anymore but I stay busy. We both agreed we have been much sicker in the past, although this was no picnic either, but we are probably back to about 90% now. I need to get back to the airport and visit the usual crowd and get some flying in, that 150 isn't going to fly itself. Lol. We do take a fair amount of precautions but we refuse to live our lives in a bubble. I appreciate the well wishes and hope everyone here stays safe and can get back to normal as much as possible.
Bob

[Dave Stadt]

Latest projection I heard from our suburban Chicago county health department is it will take most of 2021 to get all that want to be inoculated inoculated. Even if the vaccine was available, which it isn't, the logistics are daunting and no one in the multiple layers of government that are in charge have ever dealt with anything approaching this scale.

[Kyle Boatright]

Latest projection I heard from our suburban Chicago county health department is it will take most of 2021 to get all that want to be inoculated inoculated. Even if the vaccine was available, which it isn't, the logistics are daunting and no one in the multiple layers of government that are in charge have ever dealt with anything approaching this scale.

Too many fiefdoms. As disastrous as this thing is, I'm sure there are plenty in the private sector who could put an effective plan together and get this thing rolling in the right direction (maybe not the *perfect* direction) very quickly.

All of this planning and preparing should have been done months ago. The Allies didn't plan D-day on the fly. There was a huge amount of planning done, at a very detailed level, beforehand.

This is much simpler, but the scale is huge. The planning and logistics should have been figured out to a very high level of detail before Thanksgiving.

[Airmutt]

Well I am beginning to feel more optimistic about AV2021.
Georgia has started vaccines for anyone 65 and older. Last week I actually got into the North Georgia Public Health District after dialing a mere 217 times only to get told that my county was booked and not taking anymore reservations. I politely hung up and then realized that I should have asked for an out of county location, cr#p! So today I got thru and asked for another location and was assigned the same date that I have jury duty (really I'm not making this up) and they would not give me another date. So I hung up and tried 2.5 hours later and got thru.....much to my surprise. I now have a reservation a week from today and its even earlier than my jury date. Oh, I also purchased my AV 2021 tickets. ;) Still on the fence as to whether I want to camp or commute in daily. Leaning towards camping this year.

I am astounded that a 6 county health district has only one telephone line for scheduling COVID tests and vaccines. What were these people thinking??? The NGPHD website has been crashed for about two weeks now just due to lack of bandwidth. Can't believe the state and local governments have had almost a year to prepare for this moment and they act like it just popped up yesterday. It could be worse, I hear that Wisconsin is only administering the vaccine to the general public only if you're 75 or older.

[Eric Page]

I was pleasantly surprised to learn that the VA called my Dad a few days ago, unsolicited, to schedule his shots. He's 83 and has some compromising conditions, so we're thrilled that he's on the books so quickly; he gets the first jab tomorrow. Every once in awhile the VA gets it right.

[Sam Oleson]

Hey everyone -- just a follow-up to some of the comments made about the likelihood of AirVenture 2021 happening. We are planning for AirVenture 2021 to take place. There will likely be some COVID-19 precautions/restrictions in place (i.e. social distancing, capacity limits indoors, extra sanitization, etc.), but we are going full-steam ahead on AirVenture 2021 planning. We'll be announcing some of our plans in terms of COVID precautions within the next few weeks, though those plans may change as the event gets closer. Updates will be announced on EAA.org, in eHotline, as well as our primary social media pages such as Facebook and Twitter. Hope to see many of you in Oshkosh this summer!

[Lindberg]

That's encouraging. My room reservations are made and I will be bringing more sanitizer. Maybe some Depends.......

[skyfixer8]

Thanks for update Sam. As a tram operator, it will be interesting to see how transportation will be handled if the event goes forward

[Airmutt]

Thanks Sam. Pending some major setback, I think its going to boil down to a couple of issues.
First, just how comfortable will people be traveling and attending AV even with protocols in place. The question in my mind is will the rollout of the vaccine to the general public come in time to provide that confidence. Opinions tend to fall into two camps without many in the mid ground. I guess advance ticket sales will be a good measure for attendance estimates.

The second is what impacts will the protocols have on attendee experience. Unfortunately AV is a cluster of social gathering nightmares for y'all: buses, trams, interview circles, exhibit halls, restrooms, workshops, food courts, etc. Some things are easy to fix like more porta-potties or increased dining spaces. I doubt EAA can or will add more tram cars simply due to expense and the time line. Same can be said for the new Gray Lot bus terminal. What's going to happen when an attendee can't get into a venue because of occupation limits. You know somebody is going to complain that they paid for full access and got turned away from a venue. What then?

Quite honestly I don't envy you guys. Y'all have to make some tough decisions and no matter what is decided somebody is going to be unhappy. I think that is going to be the one true given.

[Bill Berson]

Hey everyone -- just a follow-up to some of the comments made about the likelihood of AirVenture 2021 happening. We are planning for AirVenture 2021 to take place. !

Does that mean the decision was made now? Or will the decision be made on May 1st?

[Kyle Boatright]

Does that mean the decision was made now? Or will the decision be made on May 1st?

Nothing is final until you snap on your arm band and go through the gates. ;-)

Honestly, they could pull the plug the day before the event is scheduled to start. It would be awfully inconvenient, but you do what you gotta do.

[Lindberg]

If they have AV2021, I'm going with the expectation that is will be a bit more restrictive or "scaled down." Most of us are now "conditioned" to this damn plague and we understand. Some will be disappointed because it is not going to be AirVenture as usual. I don't want to miss another AirVenture, even if it means a "scaled-down" version. What I really missed last years is seeing some of my long time friends from all over the US and some locals also. I also missed staggering around all those many aircraft that I have seen so many times. That's all I need from AirVenture and I'll take it anyway I can get it. AV2021 is about 6 months away. I am hopeful that IF the COVID-19 vaccine is all that they say it is, most of those who go will have been vaccinated and the risk of severe illness or death will be minimal. If I were one who did not get the vaccine, I believe I would not go.

[CHICAGORANDY]

That's kinda where my brain is right now.

I do still have a motel reservation - IF the mom-n-pop motel financially can stay open till July of course. Somehow or another without my meaning to I've turned 72 and won't risk a lengthy hospital ICU stay so unless I and a whole lot of folks get vaccinated twice by the end of June (assuming the two-dose requirement and full efficacy not happening until 2 weeks after the last dose) I will likely force myself to stay home. The notion of conducting my tram while sitting a couple feet from the huddled masses while also sharing a microphone with my fellow conductors sounds like a surefire way to get infected with any airborne disease.

There is IMHO exactly zero way to hold or attend AirVenture while maintaining 6' social distancing, so that mandate will need to be removed before opening day as well.

[Airmutt]

Unfortunately I don’t think social distancing will be gone by July. Its going to force EAA to rethink a lot of things. I would not be surprised to see some venues and services severely drawn down or even cancelled. I think tram services fall into that category.
It will be interesting to see how SNF plays out. I’m sure EAA will watch closely and adjust accordingly.

[CarlOrton]

Just writing down a few thoughts for cathartic reasons.

Here in TX, I really don't have any authoritative knowledge of what's going on. I read stories about doses going unused because of the logistical challenge in dispensing. Things like long prep times, etc., resulting in sometimes insufficient doses being available. At the opposite end, we prep too much and have to either discard or put out an Ollie Ollie All in Free call to stick the leftovers in an arm, any arm, regardless of "class".

That said (and I wasn't griping - was just citing that it's a bigger challenge than having doses just sitting there...), we're pushing up against a drop-dead date of - what - May 1st for a go/no-go decision?

Even if we (EAA) manage to continue with AV2021 by imposing "new" crowd measures, this is gonna be hard, folks. Look at those sporting events that have been held during the past few months (here in TX, $$$ is king, so bring the Rose Bowl, the National Finals Rodeo, the World Series, etc). Yeah, you wear a mask to get in the door, but it's hard to whoop it up for your team wearing a mask, so off it comes. As an example, for the Rodeo finals, Ft Worth obtained 30,000 test kits. Only 724 attendees used the tests. Of those, 13%, THIRTEEN PERCENT, were positive. A LOT of attendees did not use the masks.

Just a quick thought about distancing at AV, and it's gonna be a nightmare. We'll have to double the number of volunteers to be the Safety Patrol.

Think about it. I volunteer in the workshops. I'm standing there across a 2' table with 2-3 folks on the other side, trying to learn how to work metal. We're standing there 30 minutes or more depending on the person's skill. WELL within the 6' limit. We frequently have to get closer to demonstrate the intricacies of the process.

Then there's the exhibit barns, A, B, C, & D. For in-demand products, there's usually a crowd of 5 or so huddled pretty close to hear the salesman tell another client about the product. It's noisey, so you have to strain to hear. Even if a lower-tiered product, 2-3 folks in the same party will crowd the vendor to hear what their buddy is asking.

Bottom line is that aside from walking around airplanes (a great event anyway!), there's not a lot of space to conduct a lot of business. Unfortunately, I was not a member in the early days when it *was* basically members-only who were allowed greater access. Not trying to be a snob, but maybe we need to go back to that. But then again, EAA NEEDS the money from 150,000/day attendance. And I most assuredly want EAA to prosper.

Then again, if we use 6' distancing for concession lines, the donuts and 1' tall ice cream cones will have lines stretching all the way to the North 40!

At this point, I'll be there. I don't yet have my vaccine (over 65), but I have great genes, the "correct" blood type and a good immune system. This'll probably do me in....

[bmckinney]

How did AV handle the H1N1 outbreak in 2009? There were 60 million US cases that year. It was highly contagious.

[rwanttaja]

How did AV handle the H1N1 outbreak in 2009? There were 60 million US cases that year. It was highly contagious.

How many fatalities? Were they near 400,000?

(hint: No.)

Ron Wanttaja

[bmckinney]

Not going to get into your fatality number as that is suspect based on reporting, but that is not the point.

The question was did AV do anything different for sanitization or change up anything that year? 1/5 the US population got H1N1, and it was a tough sickness if you got it.

[Jeff Point]

How did AV handle the H1N1 outbreak in 2009? There were 60 million US cases that year. It was highly contagious.
I don't recall the exact year, but some time around a decade ago they started to put in lots of hand sanitizer stations around the eat spots, in the port-johns and other such places. I don't know if it was in 2009 or had anything to do with H1N1 but it was around that time.

Other than that I don't recall them doing anything differently.

[bmckinney]

Thanks Jeff. You are probably correct about that. I know around here in MN they took some preventative measures similar to that in restaurants and activity-based locations when H1N1 was raging. They did cancel some of our kids activities for about a week and school attendance would get to just 7-8 students in class when it would sweep through an area.

[rwanttaja]

Not going to get into your fatality number as that is suspect based on reporting, but that is not the point.
It's exactly the point. Reactions should be based on lethality, not on mere contagion rate. I'd expect organizations to react differently to green-arm cooties with a near-zero rate of deaths that a pandemic that has killed one out of a thousand Americans.

Basically the same CDC providing the statistics on H1N1 as is providing the same data on COVID. If the death rate for COVID has been inflated by a factor of four, it's STILL killed almost ten times as many people in a year that H1N1 did.

Ron Wanttaja

[bmckinney]

I meant to say that my original post was not to discuss the sickness. Everyone has a different opinion. I was just asking did AV take precautions in the past for other sizeable outbreaks.

[rwanttaja]

I meant to say that my original post was not to discuss the sickness. Everyone has a different opinion. I was just asking did AV take precautions in the past for other sizeable outbreaks.

The only outbreak of similar lethality was the Spanish Flu over 100 years ago; EAA wasn't around then. The polio outbreaks in around 1955 come to mind, but considering EAA didn't even have a magazine until three years later, I doubt the conventions were that big.

Again, the 2009 H1N1 outbreak was infinitesimal in size vs. Covid. We're talking less than 15,000 deaths vs. over 400,000 in a single year, and Covid is not done yet. In a single year, Covid deaths have matched the number of US deaths in World War 2.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

I just don't understand what your point is. Are you complaining about EAA's lack of precautions back in 2009? Or are you claiming that EAA should not do ANYTHING beyond what they did in 2009? What has EAA's reaction to a much less lethal outbreak ten years ago have to do with the current situation?

Ron Wanttaja

[bmckinney]

Jeff gave me an answer that made sense. AV apparently may have taken some precautions when a new sickness seemed to be going around.

For the numbers, unfortunately, it's impossible to relate the two. The recording methods were different. For COVID, ANY trace of it (tested or not, and even if you had just maybe been near someone with it - MN) at death was counted as a COVID death. CDC indicates that only 6% of the total (322k as 1/9/2021) were COVID-Only (19,000). The remaining 303,000 had 1 or more comorbidities, with the average being 2.9 other conditions. In 2009, the 15,000 is H1N1-Only. They didn't add any additional counts due to other conditions like they did for COVID. 60 million cases would definitely increase that number significantly.

[DaleB]

For COVID, ANY trace of it (tested or not, and even if you had just maybe been near someone with it - MN) at death was counted as a COVID death. CDC indicates that only 6% of the total (322k as 1/9/2021) were COVID-Only (19,000). The remaining 303,000 had 1 or more comorbidities, with the average being 2.9 other conditions. In 2009, the 15,000 is H1N1-Only. They didn't add any additional counts due to other conditions like they did for COVID. 60 million cases would definitely increase that number significantly.
Got a reference for that? It's interesting, if accurate...

[bmckinney]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Just above table 3. Comorbidities section. Shows breakdown.

[Airmutt]

You said: CDC indicates that only 6% of the total (322k as 1/9/2021) were COVID-Only (19,000). I went and read your reference and.... it does NOT state that 6% died from COVID only, it states that for the cause of death for 6% listed COVID only. All that means is the comorbidity for those 6% is indeterminable.

[rwanttaja]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Just above table 3. Comorbidities section. Shows breakdown.

Good data, thanks. Is there an equivalent one for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic? I'd like to get confirmation that comorbidities are NOT included in the 2009 CDC tally of US deaths. Doing searches on "H1N1 comorbidities", they were obviously being considered...

"Results
Of the 272 patients we studied, 25% were admitted to an intensive care unit and 7% died. Forty-five percent of the patients were children under the age of 18 years, and 5% were 65 years of age or older. Seventy-three percent of the patients had at least one underlying medical condition; these conditions included asthma; diabetes; heart, lung, and neurologic diseases; and pregnancy. Of the 249 patients who underwent chest radiography on admission, 100 (40%) had findings consistent with pneumonia."

"Hospitalized Patients with 2009 H1N1 Influenza in the United States, April–June 2009," New England Journal of Medicine, November 2009.

I remember "Swine Flu" in 2009, what I don't remember is massive overflows in emergency rooms, temporary hospitals being set up in sports stadiums, or reefer trucks being deployed to temporarily store the dead.

Ron Wanttaja

[Lindberg]

Is the COVID-19 vaccine effective in protecting the people who get the vaccination or not? If those who get the vaccination are protected after the appropriate time following the second vaccination, then there should not be a great risk for you from those who may be carrying the virus. After all, the vaccination is to protect the receiver of it. If that is the case then those who get the vaccination should feel relatively safe. Those who don't are at risk.

[Kyle Boatright]

Is the COVID-19 vaccine effective in protecting the people who get the vaccination or not? If those who get the vaccination are protected after the appropriate time following the second vaccination, then there should not be a great risk for you from those who may be carrying the virus. After all, the vaccination is to protect the receiver of it. If that is the case then those who get the vaccination should feel relatively safe. Those who don't are at risk.

You're absolutely right. The vaccine mostly protects you from having moderate or worse symptoms. It isn't certain that it prevents you from contacting the disease or being a carrier.

Which means you *might* still be a transmission vector to the unvaccinated. And there will be several flavors of unvaccinated. The "not gonna" crowd plus some people who will be excluded for various reasons (age, potential for negative reactions, whatever).

So there is likely to be a push for some time after mass vaccinations to mask and distance. I get it, but yuck.

[Roger Janssens]

I wonder what (conspiracy) theories people will come up with to explain away the excess death statistics: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

If there's any way the US borders will be open for visitors by the summer I intend to be at AV2021. No problems wearing a face mask all week; I'm happy to leave the posing to others. Plus I'll be near the South 40 to photograph arrivals anyway - even in non-COVID-times I always need to be well away from the (loud)speakers to maintain sanity.

I am wondering what measures will be taken at Camp Scholler, however. I really can't see 60 or so people using the showers or the washbasins at the same time, not when there is a virus like this one around. I suppose I'll have to start looking into renting an RV.

Keep safe,

Roger

[BeagleOne]

Well, I'm sure I'll get bashed for this, but I hope the fly-in is held with as few restrictions as possible. You can't eradicate an airborne virus, and this one, while very contagious, has an extremely low death rate. And while I feel awful for the people who have died and their families (particularly the people in nursing homes who were basicaly murdered), that death rate is suspect because of all of the misclassification, AND it does not account for the people who have had the virus but didn't feel badly enough to seek medical care. Most of us have been exposed to it at this point. If someone has health issues that put them at risk, then they should do what the need to do to avoid the virus. If someone doesn't want to go out, then stay home. If someone feels safer in a cloth mask, wear one. If EAA requires masks on their property, I would comply. But please don't cancel.

[robert l]

I am wondering what measures will be taken at Camp Scholler, however. I really can't see 60 or so people using the showers or the washbasins at the same time
Just don't shower, people will keep their distance !
Bob

[Kyle Boatright]

You can't eradicate an airborne virus, and this one, while very contagious, has an extremely low death rate.

Maybe you and I see things differently. By the end of this thing (this fall, maybe?), something like 1 1/2 of every thousand Americans will die from this. And that's over the course of a year, year and a half. Relatively speaking, it is a big deal. Certainly the worst pandemic the US has seen in 100 years.

[FlyingRon]

I suspect the prevelence of so-called "co-morbidities" is higher in the Oshkosh attendance than the population as a whole. We already know we lost one of Vintage's long time volunteer and had several more (including one who was a frontline nurse in her "day job") get it and suffer. Just because someone has some other condition doesn't mean they deserve to die because of a bunch of self-centered jerks who think they're invincible.

[Auburntsts]

Look we’re not going to change peoples minds here. Go—don’t go; Whichever choice makes sense for you. If it’s on I’m going. I went to OSH last year even though the show was cancelled and might do the same this year.

Truth in lending I wear a mask only where required and I do so mainly so proprietors don’t get into trouble, but to be honest I think it’s effectiveness in places like restaurants is dubious at best. I do not plan to get the vaccine but I haven’t gotten a flu shot either since I left active duty in 2008. Oh and I’m pretty well informed as I’m involved in the procurement and distribution of the vaccine for all of DoD.

[Kyle Boatright]

Look we’re not going to change peoples minds here. Go—don’t go; Whichever choice makes sense for you. If it’s on I’m going. I went to OSH last year even though the show was cancelled and might do the same this year.

Truth in lending I wear a mask only where required and I do so mainly so proprietors don’t get into trouble, but to be honest I think it’s effectiveness in places like restaurants is dubious at best. I do not plan to get the vaccine but I haven’t gotten a flu shot either since I left active duty in 2008. Oh and I’m pretty well informed as I’m involved in the procurement and distribution of the vaccine for all of DoD.

Got any um.. excess doses? I'm thinking a guy could make big bucks with a booth in the flymart at SnF... Just sayin'. ;-)

[Wsquare]

Sun-N-Fun has been announced as "GO" for this year. Roger (from Belgium), no problem, just fly into Mexico and walk across the southern border - it will be wide open. Plus, you won't have to take any CV-19 tests and prove negative results (which would be required if you were to fly into the U.S.).

[Airmutt]

Wonder if they will be doing temp checks as a requirement for entry????

[steve]

I heard the Reno Air Races are GO for this year.

Just wondering out loud, will attendees be required to show either 1. proof of vaccination or 2. proof they had the virus?

[Airmutt]

Reno’s biggest problem was lack of cash. Never been but I would think hey have plenty of room to space out spectators.
Proof of having had the virus only gets you a gold star and a cookie. Post virus antibody immunity varies amongst individuals....generally for a period of around 3 months. Neither having COVID or the vax is a bullet proof guarantee. I’m of the opinion that we will be living with COVID vax booster shots for the rest of our lives sans some major medical breakthrough.

[Mayhemxpc]

Got any um.. excess doses? I'm thinking a guy could make big bucks with a booth in the flymart at SnF... Just sayin'. ;-)

That reminds me of something I saw at Roberts International Airport, Monrovia, Liberia. The Ministry of health had a booth checking for Yellow Fever vaccinations. This is still big in Africa. No vaccination card? No problem. For 25 Liberian Dollars (about a quarter US) you can have your very own yellow card stamped by the Liberian MoH as Yellow Fever vaccinated.

Now, I am not saying that the same thing will happen with COVID...not here anyway

[GeorgeP]

Well, I'm sure I'll get bashed for this, but ...

1. You can't eradicate an airborne virus...

2. If someone feels safer in a cloth mask, wear one...

Fear not, no-one will ‘bash’ you on this forum; we’re all here for the aircraft and the camaraderie. :D A couple of responses to your questions/statements:

1. Taiwan, Viet Nam, Singapore, New Zealand and my country, Australia.

2. Wearing a mask protects others as well as oneself. A civic duty, if you will. It is the behaviour practised in most civil societies.

Sadly, Osh 2021 is off my calendar because of the CoViD-19 pandemic plus Australia’s border will not be open until later this year, well after the conclusion of Oshkosh. Perhaps in 2022, when most us have been vaccinated. Stay safe and healthy everyone and I’ll see you at Osh 2022. :D

[Lindberg]

Sadly, Osh 2021 is off my calendar because of the CoViD-19 pandemic plus Australia’s border will not be open until later this year, well after the conclusion of Oshkosh. Perhaps in 2022, when most us have been vaccinated. Stay safe and healthy everyone and I’ll see you at Osh 2022. :D Damn! Oshkosh ain't Oshkosh with no Aussies.

[GeorgeP]

Damn! Oshkosh ain't Oshkosh with no Aussies.We'll be back; I need to attend one more and then I'm done. Stay safe.

[streffpilot]

2. Wearing a mask protects others as well as oneself. A civic duty, if you will. It is the behaviour practised in most civil societies.

I HAAAAATE this argument. If I’m not sick, I can’t spread the virus. Therefore no need to wear the stupid face diaper. Your health is NOT my civic duty.

Also, if masks work so well, how did I get the virus from someone who wears her mask everywhere? Just stop with this nonsense already.

If YPU feel safer wearing one, go for it.

[rwanttaja]

I HAAAAATE this argument. If I’m not sick, I can’t spread the virus.
The problem with Covid is that you don't *know* if you're sick. There can be 3-5 days where you're infectious and don't realize you have it.

Are masks perfect? Of course not. But they do reduce the rate of re-infection.

Ron Wanttaja

[streffpilot]

The problem with Covid is that you don't *know* if you're sick. There can be 3-5 days where you're infectious and don't realize you have it.

Are masks perfect? Of course not. But they do reduce the rate of re-infection.

Ron Wanttaja

That was not the case when I got it. Exposed Sunday. Monday I knew I was in for some fun.

My point stands. If you don’t have it, you can’t give it. With rapid testing, if you want to know, you can.

If you have it, you have it wether you feel it or not. My personal opinion is that everyone who is going to get it will get it.

[rwanttaja]

That was not the case when I got it. Exposed Sunday. Monday I knew I was in for some fun.

And other people react differently. Some have a longer asymptomatic time. It also hits people differently. You recovered from Covid...does that mean you don't believe ANYONE has died from it? Shouldn't precautions be based on protecting the most number of people?


My point stands. If you don’t have it, you can’t give it. With rapid testing, if you want to know, you can.
Few of us are politicians or football players; we don't get tested every day. The most-common guidance is to get tested IF you think you have it...by which point, it's really too late, as far as protecting anyone else.

Ron Wanttaja

[streffpilot]

You recovered from Covid...does that mean you don't believe ANYONE has died from it? Shouldn't precautions be based on protecting the most number of people?



Of course not......but let's be honest, people die from sicknesses all the time. This one hit us hard, and seemingly fast. Combined with the fact that from all indications, nobody's immune system had seen it before, it is unavoidable that people would die from it.....I'm not trying to be harsh here, but from a facts point of view.

If I thought that wearing a mask would actually save the actual people I passed by in the store, etc, sure, I'd wear one. Maybe it's my rural life, but I just don't buy into the "if it saves just one life" way of thinking. If that was the case, they wouldn't have sent Covid patients to nursing homes.....That was an action that directly killed people (and I believe more people than would ever have been killed if nobody wore a mask).

Look, I'm not wishing that anyone gets sick, or God forbid, dies, but there needs to be a balance between personal freedom and personal responsibility for one's own health.

Anyway, However this all works out, I wish you all good health, and a great Airventure this year! (I'm staying slightly optomistic on that last one)

[Kyle Boatright]

My point stands. If you don’t have it, you can’t give it. With rapid testing, if you want to know, you can.

Not correct. First hand knowledge here. My son is in elementary school and has been in the classroom all day, every day this school year (with everyone wearing masks). We were notified a week and a half ago (a Saturday) that his teacher was COVID positive. Our whole family got rapid tested that day. All of us came up negative.

To be sure, we had him re-tested (both tests) on Monday (two days later). The rapid test was positive and the longer test result came back positive on Wednesday.

So, there can definitely be a lag period between when you catch the virus and when you will start testing positive.

BTW, he's doing fine, locked away in his room playing video games for 10 days with us shoving food under the door...

[rwanttaja]

If I thought that wearing a mask would actually save the actual people I passed by in the store, etc, sure, I'd wear one.
Medical masks have been used to minimize transmission of disease for over 100 years; there are pictures of doctors in the Civil War era wearing them. Until a year ago, there was no controversy....NONE....about the use of masks to reduce the effect of contagious diseases. Seems to me that millions of medical professionals would have been eager to get rid of them, otherwise.

(Good article at:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31207-1/fulltext


Maybe it's my rural life, but I just don't buy into the "if it saves just one life" way of thinking.

How analogous is your rural life to the AirVenture environment? Do you think a crowded, public venue requires more precautions than a lifestyle that meets, say, two strangers a day?


Look, I'm not wishing that anyone gets sick, or God forbid, dies, but there needs to be a balance between personal freedom and personal responsibility for one's own health.
I am absolutely fascinated. I've been to many businesses over the years that have signs saying, "No Shirts, No Shoes, No Service." Please explain to me why THIS is not a threat to my personal freedom, while wearing a mask is.

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

Hey I’m totally happy that I got my first vaccine dose (Moderna) today. Had to drive an hour up into north Georgia but it was worth it. As difficult it was to get scheduled I was surprised how low the foot traffic was. There were 9 station in my area but only 3 including myself were in use. In and out in less than 20 minutes and 15 of that was just sitting after the injection. Treated myself to some good BBQ for lunch and stopped at a couple of vineyards on the way back. All in all not a bad day. :thumbsup::thumbsup:

[mazdaP5]

BTW, he's doing fine, locked away in his room playing video games for 10 days with us shoving food under the door...

A lot of pancakes and pita bread.

[Kyle Boatright]

A lot of pancakes and pita bread.

Tortillas, fruit rollups (unrolled, of course), thin sliced sandwich meat. A 10 year old's dream.

[krw920]

There were 9 station in my area but only 3 including myself were in use. In and out in less than 20 minutes and 15 of that was just sitting after the injection.

That is the biggest problem, they set up facilities to handle a bunch of people, then put restrictions on who can use them. So not enough people know, so the capacity then goes unused. Not saying I have a good answer, but there has to be a better way!

[Airmutt]

Kyle your right about the testing.
One of our daughters, her husband and both kids got exposed during a family Christmas party. As soon as they found out they went and got tested. All came back negative. Mom and dad felt crummy for a few days but her husband’s condition worsened and a second re-test came back positive. My daughter subsequently got the antibody test and yep she had it too. The kids weren’t impacted.
Over here in Cherokee county the schools closed for short period not because of the kids but lack of teachers and subs. What does that tell ya??

[FlyingRon]

Some people contract it (and spread it) entirely without personal symptoms. Sort of a COVID Marys.

[Lindberg]

Some people contract it (and spread it) entirely without personal symptoms. Sort of a COVID Marys.Perhaps one of the the best arguments for getting the vaccination.

[Ronald Franck]

What are masks good for? Not as many people are spitting onto the sidewalk anymore. Thank you, masks. A lot less people are smoking from their car to the store enterance. Thank you, masks. Other than that.....not much use.
First, there are no standards as to what is a effective, useful mask. Anyone with a sewing machine can hack one out of what ever material they have on hand. Then there are those folks who don't wear them effectively. How often have you seen the nose fully exposed? I've even seen folks walking around the store without a second thought with the mask drapped around their chin. If your glasses fog over......it ain't working. Face sheild? Useless except for stopping a direct sneeze or cough. Loose fitting mask? Your hand is constantly readjusting the mask and then any germs on your mask get transferred to your hand and in turn transferred to evey thing you touch. I find it humorous that a store clerk will sanitize the stylus and touchpad between customers but no one is sanitizing the door knob or shopping carts and the sanitizing station is empty of wipes.
I so look forward to not having to wear a mask, even if I do wear shoes and a shirt.

[rwanttaja]

What are masks good for? Not as many people are spitting onto the sidewalk anymore. Thank you, masks. A lot less people are smoking from their car to the store enterance. Thank you, masks. Other than that.....not much use.
First, there are no standards as to what is a effective, useful mask. Anyone with a sewing machine can hack one out of what ever material they have on hand. Then there are those folks who don't wear them effectively. How often have you seen the nose fully exposed? I've even seen folks walking around the store without a second thought with the mask drapped around their chin. If your glasses fog over......it ain't working. Face sheild? Useless except for stopping a direct sneeze or cough. Loose fitting mask? Your hand is constantly readjusting the mask and then any germs on your mask get transferred to your hand and in turn transferred to evey thing you touch. I find it humorous that a store clerk will sanitize the stylus and touchpad between customers but no one is sanitizing the door knob or shopping carts and the sanitizing station is empty of wipes.
I so look forward to not having to wear a mask, even if I do wear shoes and a shirt.

Ideally, everyone would wear an effective, properly-fitting mask, but in real life that's never going to happen. But you can find plenty of both scientific evidence and anecdotal accounts (e.g., videos showing how even simple masks catch exhaled air) showing that they do work. In the real world, they're not 100% effective, but little is. About 25% of homebuilt accidents result in a fatality, despite seat belts and shoulder harness. Is that an argument for NOT wearing seat belts?

I fully agree they're a PITA, but use is getting almost automatic. Pull up into the grocery store parking lot, grab a mask from the center console, slip it on. Back when this first started, you couldn't find masks for love nor money, so I actually DID take some old pajamas from the rag box and whip out the thirty-year-old sewing machine. Result wasn't pretty. Commercial versions are much more available now.

At the beginning of the pandemic, they didn't know how the contagion spread, so we got warnings about wearing gloves and not touching surfaces. Now, it's understood to be airborne, and they're less concerned about transmission by touching surfaces. I was actually able to buy a can of Lysol last week.

One good thing is that the medical profession has improved its knowledge on how to treat it, and the survival rate is improving. Have a biweekly zoom meeting with fellow retirees from my old organization... all old [censored] like me. About a third of them have caught it (and their wives, and their adult kids, etc.). All have survived it, though one still lacks a sense of taste or smell (long-hauler). Best comment was from one of the newest sufferers: "Zero stars. Would not recommend."

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

We’re they Star Wars or Batman PJs ������

[rwanttaja]

We’re they Star Wars or Batman PJs ������

Fireball XL5. They *were* getting a bit tight in the waist....

Ron "Okay, Venus?" Wanttaja

[FlyingRon]

Fireball XL5. They *were* getting a bit tight in the waist....

Ron "Okay, Venus?" Wanttaja
Cool. I had a Fireball XL5 lunchbox in the first grade.

[rwanttaja]

Cool. I had a Fireball XL5 lunchbox in the first grade.

What, you mean you don't have it any more? :-)
8798
(Actually, my wife got this for me for Christmas a few years back.)

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

Sorry guys but as a kid I just couldn’t get into the puppets but boy I didn’t miss an episode of Johnny Quest. Now that was must see Saturday morning TV!!
FYI, I like your Robin Hood mug.

[Kyle Boatright]

Sorry guys but as a kid I just couldn’t get into the puppets but boy I didn’t miss an episode of Johnny Quest. Now that was must see Saturday morning TV!!
FYI, I like your Robin Hood mug.

That's Toby from 12 O'Clock High!

[rwanttaja]

That's Toby from 12 O'Clock High!

Yup. Behind the lunch box you can the the top of a frame. It holds an original lobby card for the movie (basically a small version of the poster).

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

To be more correct, Toby is the style which could be a face or a full figure. The character is Robin Hood. Even repos of this piece are pretty pricey. Still pretty cool and an awesome movie.

[melann]

Sorry guys but as a kid I just couldn’t get into the puppets but boy I didn’t miss an episode of Johnny Quest. Now that was must see Saturday morning TV!!
FYI, I like your Robin Hood mug.

I love hearing from young whipper-snappers that had TV when they were a kid!

[Lindberg]

I love hearing from young whipper-snappers that had TV when they were a kid!Our family first TV was in Ft. Sill, OK (station in Lawton) in1955. went to Germany in late 1956......No television. returned to the states in 1959. The world had changed.

[robert l]

Our family first TV was in Ft. Sill, OK (station in Lawton) in1955. went to Germany in late 1956......No television. returned to the states in 1959. The world had changed.

The first TV I ever saw had a screen of 7 inches, and it was black and white, well, more of a greenish color and not very clear. It belonged to one of my mothers sisters. Had to be the early 50's, also, it was about half the size of a refridgerator!
Bob, I might be old, but I'm slow !

[FlyingRon]

We had a (probably 19") B&W Zenith because my grandfather was a TV repairman (among other jobs) and declared them the best. All VHF. Years later we got a "non-clicking" UHF version of the same TV. We were about the last one to get a color TV that I knew growing up. We got a Motorola Quasar (works in a drawer, which was a laugh because the tech just took the drawer back to the shop). I remember we got it right before the Apollo 11 landing (which the space walk was B&W anyway which sort of negated the benefit).

Because my gramps was a TV guy, he gave me an ancient Philco for my bedroom around the same time. I opened the back up and connected the speaker to a switch and wired up headphones to it so I could silently watch TV when I wanted. I pretty much watched non-stop coverage of the Apollo mission from my room with the headphones on at night.

[Airmutt]

Now that stirs memories of going with my dad to use the tube tester. I was too young to understand the science. I had quite a collection useless tubes, but they looked cool. My dad worked for Shell Oil and spent a lot of time at the Cape Canaveral and came back with tons of NASA literature. All of those tubes would become the brains of my cardboard space capsule.:)

[melann]

Now that stirs memories of going with my dad to use the tube tester. I was too young to understand the science. I had quite a collection useless tubes, but they looked cool. My dad worked for Shell Oil and spent a lot of time at the Cape Canaveral and came back with tons of NASA literature. All of those tubes would become the brains of my cardboard space capsule.:)

Now that stirs my memory. I still have a tube tester out in the shop if anyone needs to borrow it.

[rwanttaja]

What, we're complaining about the good old days when home electronics could be repaired by the owner? Next we'll be waxing nostalgic about when all you needed to work on your car's engine was a set of wrenches and a timing light, you could wash a pair of jeans without them falling apart, and once you bribed a politician they STAYED bought.....

Ron "And get off my lawn" Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

Complaining heck! My cardboard capsule just took me and my faithful dachshund Fritz to the planet Mongo and back. And no airworthiness inspection or paper work required;)

[Wsquare]

Back to the topic. I see where Mr. Pelton says AirVenture 2021 is “GO”, in the latest issue of Sport Aviation. They are working on all aspects of the event to meet the needed health and safety requirements. Great news.

[Auburntsts]

Back to the topic. I see where Mr. Pelton says AirVenture 2021 is “GO”, in the latest issue of Sport Aviation. They are working on all aspects of the event to meet the needed health and safety requirements. Great news.

Well I'll say I'm cautiously optimistic knowing that they can pull the plug basically at anytime between now and then. Granted the closer we get to the event the harder and more expensive a cancellation will be, but there's just too many variables to call it a slam dunk this far out. That said I'm planning to go and have been all along. As I've said before we to Osh last year even thought event itself was canceled. Might do so again....

[Airmutt]

Hey Todd, It’s a “GO” all in a state that STILL wants all large gatherings and festivals cancelled and wants out of state and even instate travelers to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival at their destinations. Kinda the proverbial elephant in the room that no one is talking about??

[Auburntsts]

Hey Todd, It’s a “GO” all in a state that STILL wants all large gatherings and festivals cancelled and wants out of state and even instate travelers to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival at their destinations. Kinda the proverbial elephant in the room that no one is talking about??

I’m not holding my breath, just keeping my fingers crossed. I don’t know of any mandatory traveler quarantine in Wisconsin (there for sure wasn’t one back in July) and their state assembly just repealed their mandatory mask mandate. So if it doesn’t get any worse seems the odds are trending up. Not declaring victory yet, but with Sun-n-Fun a go, I’m thinking positive.

[Airmutt]

You’re right; we were up there from June to mid October. Not much was really opened. The museum didn’t open until the first week of August. My comment was really just to note that the state and local governments still have a hand in the game.

[rwanttaja]

I’m not holding my breath, just keeping my fingers crossed. I don’t know of any mandatory traveler quarantine in Wisconsin (there for sure wasn’t one back in July) and their state assembly just repealed their mandatory mask mandate. So if it doesn’t get any worse seems the odds are trending up. Not declaring victory yet, but with Sun-n-Fun a go, I’m thinking positive.

I think EAA is betting on improvement and reduction in restrictions. The trend is looking good, especially once vaccine production/distribution catches up. If SnF goes on schedule, EAA would have a hard time cancelling AirVenture.

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

I see that EAA has just posted some info on COVID and AV. No concert, no large dinner gatherings like YEs and Lifetime members. And just for grins and giggles the WI state legislature just overturned the gov’s mandatory mask mandate and he in turn declared another medical emergency.

[rwanttaja]

I see that EAA has just posted some info on COVID and AV. No concert, no large dinner gatherings like YEs and Lifetime members.

Here's the link:

https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-news/eaa-airventure-oshkosh/02-04-2021-a-new-era-airventure-planning-through-unknowns

Key points:
- Masks encouraged but not mandatory
- Not required to be vaccinated
- Fewer exhibitors indoors
- A number of events where social distancing would not be possible have been cancelled
- High demand forums/presentations will be scheduled more than once

Ron Wanttaja

[CHICAGORANDY]

Anxiously awaiting word on how/if the trams will be operating. Can't social distance on one to be sure, but open air IS better than sitting on an airliner..... or even a school bus.

[Lindberg]

Five months and abut wo weeks until AV2021. There should be many millions more vaccinated by then. That has to be a good thing IF the vaccine is as effective as they say it is. If I were not vaccinated, then I would not go. I will feel more comfortable and safer after I have been fully vaccinated. Certainly, by then, we will have a better picture on this.

[Kevin O'Halloran]

Got my second shot two weeks ago
Planning on being in Oshkosh for a week in may to volunteer
Sure the grounds are going to need a lot of work
The formation groups are still planning on coming in July
We are rethinking some of the parties and get togethers
Going to be a different year--I still can't wait !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[skyfixer8]

I am wondering how Oshkosh will look with all electric planes and vehicles since our new adminsistration is pushing to get rid of fossil fuels. Fuel prices going higher, who could afford even a trip around the circuit ?

[robert l]

Skyfixer8, I can see it now, the airport is cluttered with windmills, planes dodging the big blades while trying to get in the pattern. Charging stations, how many can they accommodate at one time, what's the waiting time to charge a big twin, and will my little 150 be pushed to the back of the line? Personally, I like to hear that engine up front, or behind, I like the sound of my truck muffler and when I had my motorcycle, I liked the sound it made. The only silence I want to hear is when I've got the runway made and I throttle back to idle, sweet, other than that, I like the rumble of housepower, whether it's 4 wheels, two wheels, two wheels and one little wheel or 3 wheels. At 74, I don't think I'll have to worry about that, but I feel for the generations that follow. In my heyday, muscle cars were the thing, ah, the good ole days, loud mufflers, straight pipes, floor shifts, Big Daddy Roth, we had it all.
Bob, I will not be quiet !

[Airmutt]

CR, I suspect that tram occupancy will be reduced to 50 or even 25-30 percent with frequent wipe downs. But for ever action there is a reaction which would be even more people queueing up for a ride. So where do you find the space to social distance all those folks?
EAA has a lot of detail as to work thru between now and July. There are a lot of tough decisions to be made, some are bound to be unpopular.

[Lindberg]

Maybe they could relax some of the bicycle restrictions, except anywhere near aircraft. I used to fly my Dahon bicycle and ride from the North 40 to the gate near Warbirds. It saved a lot of walking and I never rode the bus. I know that letting bicycle in could present risks, but they could be kept away from aircraft. Of course, not everyone would have a bicycle, but for every bicycle there was it would mean one less in a bus. Then again, this might not be a good idea. Forgetaboutit.......

[skyfixer8]

I hope I will be able to afford the gas for the 200+ mile trip with my GMC Sierra pulling my glamper to Oshkosh

[skyranger]

I live in Alabama but Fl is just down the road a few miles . We were in Panama City yesterday and everything was back to normal but everybody was wearing a mask including the wife and I . We went to several craft stores , ate at a Bar B Q and every table was full . The schools in our part of Alabama are all open with a case here and there but no worse than the flu season . And it seems like nobody has the flu !

[rwanttaja]

So far, Covid is operating on about a five-month cycle:
8802
(from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

It remains to be seen how this is affected by rising vaccination rates, more-stringent Federal policies, and the rise of more-contagious strains.

*If* the five-month cycle is kept, we should be seeing another peak in the May timeframe...right when EAA needs to be making its final decisions.

You'll note from the above that each subsequent outbreak has been significantly worse than the previous one. This is a trend we definitely want to break. Likely, vaccinations are going to pay off, here.

Ron Wanttaja

[provoshane]

How early do you have to get to Camp Scholler to realistically get a generator spot?

[Airmutt]

Reservations for Camp Scholler start on July 2nd. Never done an improved site but I would guess they go fast.

[robert l]

How early do you have to get to Camp Scholler to realistically get a generator spot?

There are areas that you can use a generator 24/7 I think. A lot of the BIG motor homes park out there if they aren't in a water and electric site.
Bob

[Lindberg]

I hope I will be able to afford the gas for the 200+ mile trip with my GMC Sierra pulling my glamper to Oshkosh 200 miles? Ha! How abpout 1405 miles F-150 pulling a Harley Davidson Road King Classic on a trailer. Pray for favorable winds.

[mbalexander]

200 miles? Ha! How abpout 1405 miles F-150 pulling a Harley Davidson Road King Classic on a trailer. Pray for favorable winds.



Leave the pickup at home and ride the motorcycle......................oh wait............ it's a Harley...never mind.:D I've ridden my Goldwing from Oklahoma City to OSH a couple of times.

[Lindberg]

Leave the pickup at home and ride the motorcycle......................oh wait............ it's a Harley...never mind.:D I've ridden my Goldwing from Oklahoma City to OSH a couple of times. Goldwing? Do I smell rice? Nevermind. And, Buy the way, I don't trailer to Sturgis. I trailer my beautiful 2003 Roadking Classic from Melbourne, FL to the eastern border of Minnesota, where I leave my beautiful Harley Davidson Roadking Classic along with my wife at her sisters wherby I then drive om truck to Oshkosh for AirVenture (and yes, I have rode my Harley Davidson Roadking Classic, made in Wisconsin, by Americans, in the past, after I sold my Cessna. After AirVenture I return to Minnsota and Ride out to Spearfish on my Harley Davidson Roadking Classic. Some years I even ride further to Cheyenne, WY. My return ride is often, including this year to Fargo, ND to visit my grandson. Not bad for a 74 year old nordic American, huh? Riding from Melbourne, FL to Minnesota is not a great ride. I know cuz I have been there and done that. BTW: My first Harley was a 1954 Harley Hummer when I lived in Oklahoma (your part of the country) Ft. Sill, OK, just a nice short ride from Whichita Falls, TX. Hope you get to AirVenture safely this year. For me now it is a gamble.

[Ronald Franck]

Maybe it's a little too early to ask but just wondering if EAA has made a decision on whether selected Chapters will be putting on the Pancake Breakfast fund raisers at the Chapters Pavillion during AV2021?
.....and will EAA be providing meals at the volunteer kitchen prior to opening day for those who are working early?
.....and will Operation Thirst be delivering drinks and sandwiches around the grounds?

As for masks and vaccinations.....none for me, thank you. If you feel at risk or afraid you'll catch the dreaded Covid you might want to sit this one out.
The particle size of the Covid virus is so small that the typical mask is entirely ineffective. It can stay airborne for up to 16 hours in a draftless surrounding so your 6 foot social distancing is a joke. It is recommended you not wear the same mask for longer than 2 hours. After that it becomes a petri dish for bacteria. It also cuts down your available oxygen level and increases your carbon dioxide levels. Does your mask ever feel "wet" after wearing it a short while? Yea, and that is akin to rubbing spit all over your mouth and nose. I could go on and on but hopefully you're starting to get the picture.
Most vaccines are brought to the market after years, I repeat years of clinical trials. If you're one of the early one innoculated with the available vaccines congratulations, you just voluntairily became part of the test group and if you do have a vaccine injury you are on your own. Big Brother has given their partners in crime, Big Pharma immunity from liability. Would you buy and fly a airplane from a manufacturer if that manufacturer couldn't be held liable for fault on their part?
We're being controlled with fear and kept in the dark with mis-information and outright lies and manipulated numbers.
Some will disagree with me, other may think I'm a fringe, wacko, conspiracy therorist and I'm OK with that. Just try to be as informed as you possibly can rather than swollowing the narrative being fed to us day and night on the boob tube.

[PaulDow]

In the February chapter information video, Charlie says they’re accepting applications from chapters to host the pancake breakfasts.
IDK about the other questions.

[Lindberg]

As for masks and vaccinations.....none for me, thank you. If you feel at risk or afraid you'll catch the dreaded Covid you might want to sit this one out.
ther than swollowing the narrative being fed to us day and night on the boob tube.

I will have been vaccinated buy AirVenture 2021, so I will have some protection from the Covid-19. I have been getting vaccinations all my life. I'll just do it again. Masks? I don't want no stinking masks. I don't need no stinking masks. However, if that's what it takes to go to AirVenture 2021, that's what I will do.

[Kevin O'Halloran]

Ron
Im a retired dentist--wore a mask and gloves for the last 35 years I worked
I Think Rush is a liberal.
I got vaccinated. My gut feelings,Science and My MD friends said smart thing to do
Had a 50 year old friend that felt like you did-- Died of covid--We had his funeral last week.
Can give you his widows number so you can call her and convince her that her husbands beliefs were correct
will be in Oshkosh in may for work week
then two weeks during airadventure
I'll be the one wearing a mask

[rwanttaja]

One of the saddest things about this pandemic is how mask-wearing has become politicized.

Kind of reminds me of the '70s, when the US mandated putting seat belts in cars. You had people buying new cars, and cutting the seat belts out in protest. They'd leave the buckle end in the receptacle to keep the warning chime from going off.

Ron "Stupidity kills...but not fast enough to really matter" Wanttaja

[Mayhemxpc]

Ron, I forgot about that. I knew some people that did that. They weren't all in the "hold my beer and watch this" crowd. Some of those seatbelts were somewhat less than mechanically reliable. The retraction mechanism would jam and some were notorious for not releasing, especially after an impact. But the technology quickly improved. Personally, I drove a 1973 VW. I always wore my seatbelt and made sure my passengers had theirs on -- but with no illusion that it would be of any significant benefit in a front end collision. What a great car! (Kind of like a Cherokee of the same vintage.)

Is wearing a mask going to keep me from getting the virus? I don't know, maybe yes, maybe no. Like most things, it depends. But I wear it where it is required to make other people comfortable. Like seatbelts, it is only a minor inconvenience. It does make talking over the intercom using the headset difficult.

[rwanttaja]

Personally, I drove a 1973 VW. I always wore my seatbelt and made sure my passengers had theirs on -- but with no illusion that it would be of any significant benefit in a front end collision. What a great car! (Kind of like a Cherokee of the same vintage.)
I had a '64 VW at first, then a '74. Still think of them as great little cars. Eventually I "worked up" to a 1974 "Thing." Now THAT was a POS. But when I listed it for sale, I had folks lining up...


Is wearing a mask going to keep me from getting the virus? I don't know, maybe yes, maybe no. Like most things, it depends. But I wear it where it is required to make other people comfortable. Like seatbelts, it is only a minor inconvenience. It does make talking over the intercom using the headset difficult.

When it gets below about 45 degrees, I wear a ski mask in my Fly Baby. It definitely does make communication more difficult. In some cases, though, I think it's just my face getting stiff from the cold.

The wife and I went out for V-day last night. It struck me how commonplace and routine mask-wearing had become in my part of the country. Wear it into the restaurant, take it off when the drinks arrive, put it back on to leave. Everybody was doing it as second nature.

I'll certainly be happy when it's no longer needed, but it's just a minor irritant, now.

Ron "Luke, I am your father" Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

Well the website page for weekend work parties does say they will be providing meals but encourages volunteers to camp. Watched the chapter video, sounds like EAA is betting on widespread vaccination by the time AV rolls around.

I was more excited to hear about the land acquisition and movement of the UL runway by 2023. That’s been kicking around for a couple of years, guess it finally came to fruition.

[Ronald Franck]

Ron
Im a retired dentist--wore a mask and gloves for the last 35 years I worked
I Think Rush is a liberal.
I got vaccinated. My gut feelings,Science and My MD friends said smart thing to do
Had a 50 year old friend that felt like you did-- Died of covid--We had his funeral last week.
Can give you his widows number so you can call her and convince her that her husbands beliefs were correct
will be in Oshkosh in may for work week
then two weeks during airadventure
I'll be the one wearing a mask
Kevin, and how often did you change out your mask? Did you wear it more than two hours at a time? Did you experience headaches after prolonged wearing?
Was your 50 year old friend the picture of health or did he have other medical issues contributing to a compromised immune system? Was he treated with Hydroxychloriquine and Zinc or perhaps Ivermectin? 70% of people who contract Covid -19 say they always or almost always wore a mask, so what's your point? I never inferred vaccines didn't work. It's that the current vaccines have absolutely no track record of long term side effects and I'm not risking my health just to be someone's lab rat. Oh, one other question. Do any of your medical doctor friends get any kind of monetary incentive from the pharmacutical companies for the vaccines they administer?

[rwanttaja]

Oshkosh 2021 checklist:

1. Chapter cap
2. Raincoat
3. Sunscreen
4. Tinfoil hat.....

Ron Wanttaja

[robert l]

Oshkosh 2021 checklist:

1. Chapter cap
2. Raincoat
3. Sunscreen
4. Tinfoil hat.....

Ron Wanttaja

You forgot hand sanitizer !

[Airmutt]

Is your tin foil hat conical or pyramid shaped:eek: Cuz it does make a difference. Just sayin.

And for Kevin, there are no scheduled work weekends in May or did I miss something??

[Kevin O'Halloran]

none scheduled yet
but was told they would find something for my crew to do
we are planning on staying a full week
were also told they would take our temp before we could enter the grounds
we will be staying at the hilton
My 50 year old friend had no other health issues--got sick--looked like he was recovering from a mild case--then went off the cliff a week later and died
know of several other people that are pilots that caught and recovered---but 6 months later are having trouble keeping their blood/oxygen level up
As of a month ago--there were no documented cases of a Dentist giving a patient Covid Or catching Covid from a patient
You will never convince a Dentist that masks don't help

[Auburntsts]

1. Camp ground reservation confirmed -- Check!
2. Rental RV Trailer reservation confirmed -- Check!

Now just waiting to see what happens with the event itself and any potential travel restrictions like mandatory proof of vaccination. For the moment I'm not planning to get the shot(s), but I don't get the Flu shot either and haven't since I retired from Active Duty in 2008. And no I'm not anti-vaccine, having been on the receiving end of many shots most of you never have, like the whole 6-shot series for Anthrax. I do wear a mask when requested or where it's mandatory. The bottom line is otherwise healthy people die every day from all kinds of otherwise mundane things, like the Flu--there's no guarantees in life. When your numbers up, its up IMO. Look I choose to live dangerously - I fly, ride motorcycle's, drink, and attend mass gatherings without a mask and that's all on me. To each his own--everyone has to weigh the risks for themselves and make the decision that's best for them. Hope to see you all there!

[rwanttaja]

Now just waiting to see what happens with the event itself and any potential travel restrictions like mandatory proof of vaccination. For the moment I'm not planning to get the shot(s), but I don't get the Flu shot either and haven't since I retired from Active Duty in 2008.
I think the possibility is essentially zero that EAA will require attendees to have proof of vaccination.

I think the possibility that EAA will require volunteers to have proof of vaccination is non-zero, but still highly unlikely. EAA needs the volunteers, and won't want to alienate some of them.

I think it's a higher chance that EAA will require vendors and their employees to be vaccinated. Depends on the availability of the vaccine.


Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

Doubt that anyone will be required to have been vaxed. It’s not something they can control o enforce. Availability and eligibility varies widely. My county got crushed by the demand and that was for individuals 65 and up. Folks are now driving for 1-2 hours to lesser populated counties.

[Kevin O'Halloran]

I worry about certain areas
Registration in the north 40 is almost all Canadians
if their country requires a two week quarantine when they return---most of those people will not show up

[Lindberg]

Ron

I Think Rush is a liberal.
I got vaccinated. My gut feelings,Science and My MD friends said smart thing to do
I'll be the one wearing a mask Right, Kevin. There is some evidence that masks stifle the spread. Whatever it takes is what I will do. I don't want to miss another AirVenture, so if I have to wear the damn mask, that is what I will do. I have little doubt that in time masks will be history. Nobody really wants to wear them and i don't really believe that masks are a way of controling people. When it becomes completely obvious that they are no long useful in anyway people will quit wearing them. Anyway, I too, will be wearing a mask at AirVenture 2021. You will recognize me as the one with the Initials "FB" on the mask.

[malexander]

I'm a plumber and electrician. I sometimes wear a mask when I do service calls.......to curb the stench in some of the nasty houses I have go in to. Otherwise, I don't wear them.

[Airmutt]

I worry about certain areas
Registration in the north 40 is almost all Canadians
if their country requires a two week quarantine when they return---most of those people will not show up

I’m guessing attendance will be around 85% of previous years. International visitors will be down even more. SNF might be a good yardstick. Will have to wait and see. Personally I don’t think the current vaccine distribution rate is going to be sufficient to change public (those 50 and older) opinion from shunning large public gatherings.

[FlyingRon]

I've had N95's on in public since I got home from Australia last March. It was pretty clear once you got around the political bull that the virus was transmitted by aerosolized droplets and the N95 was going to be pretty effective against that. I was fortunate that I'm sensitive to wood dust so I happened to have a couple of boxes of masks in my workshop. Margy had also bought some because we feared Australia would still be on fire when we go there (turned out it poured down rain while we were en route pretty much cleaning that up).

Even notwithstanding the mortality, my sense of smell is pretty darned important to me (I'm a wine judge and have a substantial amount invested in that), so I'm not risking things.

[Aviatrexx]

I've been saying for quite some time that I don't expect there to be an Airventure 2021. There are too many pre-req's that might be met if all the stars line up, but Vegas thrives on such sucker bets. Moreover, there is absolutely no reason to believe that the percentage of attendees who follow CoViD-19 protocols will be any greater than the population at large. Some will be inoculated but there is no data on whether that affects virus-shedding. Two weeks camping and volunteering is hard enough on the body.

The epidemiologists who are closest to the matter are saying that it will next fall before we might see a lower DefCon level. Even then, the risk of exposure won't be back to "normal" (zero) for a quickly-mutating deadly virus.

Alison and I decided several weeks ago that we would not attend, and notified our volunteer management. I have already received my "AV2021" t-shirt, so my collection is intact.

When Jack has to make the call, I hope he pulls the plug. We don't want to be responsible for an "Aviation Sturgis" super-spreader event.

[Lindberg]

I've been saying for quite some time that I don't expect there to be an Airventure 2021. You might be right, but I hope you are wrong. Today I received notice from the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, Housing for Airventure, where I now stay (camped North 40 for more than 25 years). They informed me that they are planning on AirVenture 2021 and what to do should I decide not to attend this year regarding refunds or extending it for 2022. In otherwords they believe that there will be an EAA AirVenture 2021. I am certain that they are in communication with EAA. Anything can happen, but I am planning on being there. Yes, I will be vaccinated (I have my first vaccination now and waiting for the 2nd) and I will bring my cattle prod, just for good measure.

[robert l]

With a recovery rate for Covid between 97% and 99.75% and the Pfizer Covid vaccine is 52% effective, I'll take my changes, no vaccine for me or my wife. We both had Covid in January and came through it pretty well, I'm 74 and she is 59. We live in a rural area and most people don't wear mask, even in big box stores and no one seems to mind. I don't believe it was ever as bad as it was made out to be but that's just my opinion. I may croke tomorrow, but if A/V is on, and I'm still kickin', I'm going. I may bring a mask with me, just in case, maybe.
Bob

[Airmutt]

I just took advantage of the option of having my wristband mailed to me. That’s a first and a proactive step to reduce he congestion around the main gate area.
All the stores around here have the obligatory mask required signage but it’s not enforced. Saw the same thing while up in Wisconsin last summer. I guess businesses meet the letter of the “law” to be open but in reality don’t want to alienate customs either. We can discuss he efficacy of masks until the cows come home, but the real question is EAA really going to enforce wearing them? Georgia jumped out pretty early and passed a law that protected businesses from COVID lawsuits. Not sure if Wisconsin has the same in effect. EAA is a pretty risk adverse organization. If planning on attending I would expect to be required to be masked (at least in certain areas) as a condition of attendance.

[Eric Page]

...the Pfizer Covid vaccine is 52% effective...
From the CDC website (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6950e2.htm?s_cid=mm6950e2_w):


The body of evidence for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was primarily informed by one large, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase II/III clinical trial that enrolled >43,000 participants (median age = 52 years, range = 16–91 years). Interim findings from this clinical trial, using data from participants with a median of 2 months of follow-up, indicate that the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was 95.0% effective (95% confidence interval = 90.3%–97.6%) in preventing symptomatic laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in persons without evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Consistent high efficacy (≥92%) was observed across age, sex, race, and ethnicity categories and among persons with underlying medical conditions. Efficacy was similarly high in a secondary analysis including participants both with or without evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.

You may be thinking of Johnson & Johnson (https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial); theirs is a single-dose vaccine and is less effective, but still not that bad.

[mazdaP5]

Alison and I decided several weeks ago that we would not attend, and notified our volunteer management. I have already received my "AV2021" t-shirt, so my collection is intact.

When Jack has to make the call, I hope he pulls the plug. We don't want to be responsible for an "Aviation Sturgis" super-spreader event.

I guess it's ok to cancel as long as your t-shirt collection is intact.

[Lindberg]

"Pfizer Covid vaccine is 52% effective, I'll take my changes, no vaccine for me or my wife."
Bob Hmm....I thought I read that Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were 95 % effective in about a godzillion articles. Whatever.....but if Buzz Aldrin get the jab, so am I. (I already have had jab #1 and waiting for #2.)

[PaulDow]

I guess another difference at this year’s event will be the line of military vehicles parked across the field will be replaced with a line of Oshkosh mail trucks.
https://nypost.com/2021/02/23/usps-unveils-new-sleek-looking-mail-trucks/
8809

[Eric Page]

Apparently appearance wasn't one of the criteria in the Postal Service's RFQ. I think the Pontiac Aztek (https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a14989657/pontiac-aztek-the-story-of-a-vehicle-best-forgotten-feature/) and Fiat Multipla (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_Multipla) just lost lost their shared crown as the ugliest vehicles ever made.

[rwanttaja]

I actually like it. It's a high box, so most carriers will be able to stand up inside. That makes it easier to work in as well as load. The huge windshield and the high seating position gives the driver great visibility forward for maneuvering in tight areas. Also, note that the *side* window are large as well, again giving the driver good visibility on the right side, especially important for a right-hand-drive vehicle in the US. More capacity to handle the increased volumes of e-business.

Most of the delivery trucks that show up at my house are foreign-made... Nissans, Mercedes, etc. According to another news story, there were just three companies left in the competition. A Turkish company partnered with an American one, one small company partnered with another small one, and Oshkosh. Given Oshkosh's history of supplying vehicles to the US military, it had a better shot at winning.

Interesting article from about eighteen months ago:

https://www.trucks.com/2019/10/21/post-office-fiddles-mail-trucks-burn/

Ron Wanttaja

[robert l]

I would hate to be the one cleaning the windshield !
Bob

[CHICAGORANDY]

Thanks for the chuckle - I take it the NY Post doesn't hire any copy editors with English language skills?

"The new design consists of a waste-high front hood" - I reckon it all depends on how high that waste is? - LOL

[Airmutt]

Well I guess new but ugly beats the tired old pieces of junk that rattle around the the Atlanta area. I’m thinking one might get a bit warm in the cab with the sun beating thru all that glass.

[Kyle Boatright]

Well I guess new but ugly beats the tired old pieces of junk that rattle around the the Atlanta area. I’mTHI thinking one might get a bit warm in the cab with the sun beating thru all that glass.

The NEW model will have A/C...

[ssteve1]

Thanks for the chuckle - I take it the NY Post doesn't hire any copy editors with English language skills?

"The new design consists of a waste-high front hood" - I reckon it all depends on how high that waste is? - LOL


Nice catch, but, I've given up all hope in the media policing themselves.

[MNWORD]

I've had N95's on in public since I got home from Australia last March. It was pretty clear once you got around the political bull that the virus was transmitted by aerosolized droplets and the N95 was going to be pretty effective against that. I was fortunate that I'm sensitive to wood dust so I happened to have a couple of boxes of masks in my workshop. Margy had also bought some because we feared Australia would still be on fire when we go there (turned out it poured down rain while we were en route pretty much cleaning that up).

Even notwithstanding the mortality, my sense of smell is pretty darned important to me (I'm a wine judge and have a substantial amount invested in that), so I'm not risking things. I guess this one is not risking anything either coming in from the South Pacific and the Far East!
https://cdn.planespotters.net/31759/n744ck-kalitta-air-boeing-747-446bcf_PlanespottersNet_1157027_e311e6326e_o.jpg

[Kevin O'Halloran]

does anyone know if the EAA chapter will have their consignment tent in the flymart this year?
have two years worth of stuff to put in there this year

[FlyingRon]

Apparently appearance wasn't one of the criteria in the Postal Service's RFQ. I think the Pontiac Aztek (https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a14989657/pontiac-aztek-the-story-of-a-vehicle-best-forgotten-feature/) and Fiat Multipla (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_Multipla) just lost lost their shared crown as the ugliest vehicles ever made.
Someone made the observation that it looks like it was designed by the Pixar Cars guys.

[Lindberg]

"Make no mistake----the event is on." Jack J. Pelton EAA CEO and Chairman of the Board. Is that an "Nuff Said" thing?

[FlyingRon]

I have an appointment for my first Fauci Ouchi on Sunday.

[Lindberg]

I had my first jab two weeks ago and my second coming up in two weeks. Nothing to it, but I have a couple of friends that told me their second jab made them a little sick the next day and then they were fine. Couple of other friends had no reaction at all to the second shot.

[robert l]

I'll be wearing the hat that reads, I didn't take the vaccine !
Bob

[FlyingRon]

I had my first jab two weeks ago and my second coming up in two weeks. Nothing to it, but I have a couple of friends that told me their second jab made them a little sick the next day and then they were fine. Couple of other friends had no reaction at all to the second shot.
I got a Shingrix shot a few weeks back, so I'm kind of primed for reactions.

[rwanttaja]

I've heard the biggest side effect of the Covid vaccine is that the recipient has to tell everyone he got the vaccine. :-)

Got my first one yesterday (Pfizer), actually had a bit of reaction to it that same afternoon. Headache, fatigue, etc.

I could thus say, "I'm not looking forward to the second dose," but I'd be lying. Bring it on!

Ron Wanttaja

[melann]

I've heard the biggest side effect of the Covid vaccine is that the recipient has to tell everyone he got the vaccine. :-)
Got my first one yesterday (Pfizer), actually had a bit of reaction to it that same afternoon. Headache, fatigue, etc.
I could thus say, "I'm not looking forward to the second dose," but I'd be lying. Bring it on!
Ron Wanttaja

Ann & I got our second Pfizer shot 2 days ago. No reaction either time other than Ann was a little tired. She normally has a bad reaction to the Flu shot, and won't take it.

[CHICAGORANDY]

I at long last found the Golden Ticket. Namely a confirmed appointment for my first dose of Covid vaccine in just a couple weeks. So.... Yay me! - lol I never for a second fretted over 'whether or not' I'd get the vaccine, just 'when the heck' would I finally be able to schedule the appointment. Vaccines work ( no duh ) and as a former embalmer and Army Vietnam Vet I can assure you I've had most of them at one time or another and now at 72 am still alive, reasonably healthy and able to tell the tale. Drugs iz good.

[2ndsegment]

The ones that replaced the jeeps way back were Chevrolet S-10 mini pickup chassis with Grumman aluminum bodies from their factory in Sterling on old US -12 (112). That is still our mail truck here. Personal note-I did the detailing on a Mercedes 190-D that one of the RFD mailmen used for right side of the road deliveries and scratched up the drivers side door. Great acceleration up to about 4 miles and hour and then very leisurely. PPS-I attended a Circuit Court proceeding in Michigan where we grade school kids watched Judge Bach (who later was one of my Bay City Times customers) preside over a case where an insurance company was suing a rural mail man for making a u-turn on a country gravel road and the insured , a salesman, plowed into him on the driver's side, T-bone style.