Contingency Planning - Return to the days of old?

[CarlOrton]

Hi, All;

Just sitting here before the days chores begin and I got to thinking....

I know National is still planning on Convention occurring as normal, but things are getting weird with the spike in new covid cases, states locking things down, etc. So, what if...

Let's say mid-May comes around, things are still bleak, and National decides to call it a year and forego Convention. But then, suddenly, by July 1st, the world is somewhat back to normal. Would it be impractical to have a flash mob convention/fly-in? Just whomever wants to fly in, camp under their planes or in Scholler, and just have a good ol' "nothin' but talkin' planes" type gathering? Maybe just a long weekend. This wouldn't take too much planning, as the "stuff" is already there - Wittman, Scholler, etc.

They can sell some T-shirts, cuz ya know they've already been ordered. We could throw together some forum speakers on the fly. The app or OSHFUN txt system could advise of forum updates, etc. MUCH much smaller than in recent years, but still it could provide an opportunity to provide the continuity, especially after 3 or so months of isolation.

I never had the experience of the earlier days of Oshkosh, Rockford, etc., but from what I've seen anecdotally, it was a more purer (scuse the grammar) event. I love the full blown Convention, but we've gotta have SOMETHING, don't we?!?

[Kyle Boatright]

Hi, All;

Just sitting here before the days chores begin and I got to thinking....

I know National is still planning on Convention occurring as normal, but things are getting weird with the spike in new covid cases, states locking things down, etc. So, what if...

Let's say mid-May comes around, things are still bleak, and National decides to call it a year and forego Convention. But then, suddenly, by July 1st, the world is somewhat back to normal. Would it be impractical to have a flash mob convention/fly-in? Just whomever wants to fly in, camp under their planes or in Scholler, and just have a good ol' "nothin' but talkin' planes" type gathering? Maybe just a long weekend. This wouldn't take too much planning, as the "stuff" is already there - Wittman, Scholler, etc.

They can sell some T-shirts, cuz ya know they've already been ordered. We could throw together some forum speakers on the fly. The app or OSHFUN txt system could advise of forum updates, etc. MUCH much smaller than in recent years, but still it could provide an opportunity to provide the continuity, especially after 3 or so months of isolation.

I never had the experience of the earlier days of Oshkosh, Rockford, etc., but from what I've seen anecdotally, it was a more purer (scuse the grammar) event. I love the full blown Convention, but we've gotta have SOMETHING, don't we?!?

I love the idea. I bet it would scare EAA to death, not having control over everything with all of the contingencies in place.

[rwanttaja]

Let's say mid-May comes around, things are still bleak, and National decides to call it a year and forego Convention. But then, suddenly, by July 1st, the world is somewhat back to normal. Would it be impractical to have a flash mob convention/fly-in? Just whomever wants to fly in, camp under their planes or in Scholler, and just have a good ol' "nothin' but talkin' planes" type gathering? Maybe just a long weekend. This wouldn't take too much planning, as the "stuff" is already there - Wittman, Scholler, etc.
BYOP (Bring Your Own Porta-Potties)?

Kind of the aviation version of the Zip to Zap (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zip_to_Zap).

Ron "Hopefully, they won't call out the National Guard" Wanttaja

[Auburntsts]

BYOP (Bring Your Own Porta-Potties)?

Kind of the aviation version of the Zip to Zap (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zip_to_Zap).

Ron "Hopefully, they won't call out the National Guard" Wanttaja

Not a problem. E-tool, roll of TP, and a poncho and, voilà, you've got an instant unisex bathroom.

[Airmutt]

Wait, what!?!?! You’ve got TP? I’ll be behind Exhibit Building B after dark selling bottles of hand sanitizer. Cash only. OK, maybe for some stick time. :eek:

[Auburntsts]

Wait, what!?!?! You’ve got TP? I’ll be behind Exhibit Building B after dark selling bottles of hand sanitizer. Cash only. OK, maybe for some stick time. :eek:

I've lived in hurricane country most of my life -- I always have a good supply of necessities like TP, batteries, bottled water, fuel, etc on-hand. Other than the bars being shut down, COVID-19 has been a complete non-event for us.

[saber25]

"Somewhat back to normal". I live in a State where maryjane is legal. What are you guys smoking?

[Floatsflyer]

"Somewhat back to normal". I live in a State where maryjane is legal. What are you guys smoking?

I live in an entire country where it's legal. They aren't smoking anything...that's the precise point. That's why they make statements like this.

[robert l]

"Somewhat back to normal". I live in a State where maryjane is legal. What are you guys smoking?

I don't think, "legality" has ever stopped anyone wanting to imbibe, after all, prohibition didn't work.
Bob, smoke em if ya got em !

[GeorgeP]

...Let's say mid-May comes around, things are still bleak, and National decides to call it a year and forego Convention. But then, suddenly, by July 1st, the world is somewhat back to normal...

G'day Carl, the nine y.o. boy in me wishes for this but I believe the reality will be very different.

Here in Australia, we have been told to expect that the social distancing and restricted movement of citizens will continue for at least six months. The health authorities are attempting to limit the rate of community transmission of the virus and flatten the infection curve. If the curve takes the form of a sharp, narrow 'spike' the number of infected patient admissions will overcome our health system's capacity to treat them. That's when a lot of people will die. Reducing the rate of infection will give our health system a fighting chance to save many lives.

We are limited to groups of no more than two people in public, restaurants have closed, bars and pubs have closed and anyone who can work from home is strongly encouraged to do so. Most states have closed their borders and we are not permitted to leave the country (and that ban includes Oshkosh pilgrims like moi). We have also been told to stay at home for the Easter break (i.e. no camping, fishing...etc.).

I can only see things returning to 'normal' when a vaccine is developed, has passed all the clinical trials and becomes readily available. My apologies for painting such a bleak picture but that's the reality. I have all but given up on Oshkosh 2020 but I hope to be there in 2021.

Best wishes to everyone. Stay safe.

[CHICAGORANDY]

GeorgeP - you are 100% correct in your assessment of the global situation. Social distancing and EVERYONE (including all of every societies' brain-dead lunkheads) following the pretty simple to understand other medical advisories is the VITAL link in the chain to stop the rapid spread of this virus. NO health care system on the planet is capable of handling an overwhelming rush of patients needing very limited and specific resources, like a ventilator.

[CarlOrton]

Gee, Randy, I wouldn’t call myself a lunkhead....

Concur with your and George’s positions on the need to take the proper steps. I can’t believe how many cars are on the road ( when I go for groceries). They’re not all going to the store....

HOWEVER, I believe it is incumbent on us all to have the best outlook to give us a smile or hope for for something in the future. It lifts our spirits to think about happier times, and that alone has been proven therapeutically. Do I really expect a flash mob Convention?!? I doubt it could happen with the expected timelines involved, but, boy, I had fun thinking about it!!!

[Bill Berson]

The last pandemic was two years, 2009-2010. Gathering 650,000 from around the world might be a concern to the locals.
I would vote for a bigger event in 2021 but with distancing rules if possible.

[CHICAGORANDY]

I admit, that when I am being overly kind and courteous, I refer to anyone refusing to following the well published simple guidelines to prevent the spread of this deadly contagion as 'lunkheads'. You don't want to know what I call them in private - LOL

MY city had to have the Mayor close the entire 30+ miles of Lakefront parks and trails because of the MANY mopes & dopes who still gathered in large groups, played contact sports like basketball, soccer etc..

Yes I still grocery shop, only now it's just once every 2-3 weeks, I practice rigorous bleach solution sanitization and a minimum of 72 hours of quarantine zone holding for ANY item that comes into my home, packages from online ordering, the mail, and yes even groceries. I'm 71 and in the high risk group. I survived a year in Vietnam with an entire country trying to kill me and I'll be durned if I'm gonna let a virus do what a war couldn't.

I would suggest that THIS is an excellent read to deal with stress and anxiety, especially now. I have NO idea if the author is also trying to peddle any nonsense, but he is on point in this article iMHO.

https://medium.com/the-mission/why-coronavirus-should-be-the-least-of-your-worries-d6ed6abe75bc

[Auburntsts]

Well, in the vein of wishful thinking, IF AV20 is cancelled (and I think it will) and IF conditions improve so that travel and social distancing restrictions are lifted at some point before the Fall, then I'm all for an "old-school" fly-in convention like EAA used to have. If vendors can attend, great but not required. If folks can't make it -- no worries, see ya in 2021. No one said that a grass-roots convention has to duplicate a regular AirVenture. With just some modest logistics support, it could be done and could be a lot of fun.

[Eric Gleason]

Let me ask you guys this: how many planes do you think would fly in if someone called flash mob weekend at Whitman field? My money is on between 500 and 1000, and about half of those planes bring multiple people. So 2-3000 ish people. At an otherwise operating class D with scheduled airline service. That means TSA and movement boundaries on the airport.

What do you think happens when 1000 unscheduled planes arrive at an airport and just decide to park somewhere on the grass? What do you think happens when 2000 people need to go #2?

[Auburntsts]

Let me ask you guys this: how many planes do you think would fly in if someone called flash mob weekend at Whitman field? My money is on between 500 and 1000, and about half of those planes bring multiple people. So 2-3000 ish people. At an otherwise operating class D with scheduled airline service. That means TSA and movement boundaries on the airport.

What do you think happens when 1000 unscheduled planes arrive at an airport and just decide to park somewhere on the grass? What do you think happens when 2000 people need to go #2?

If this happens, it will be a literal shit show.

Geez. OK let's drop "flash mob" from the discussion--admittedly bad connotations. Obviously IF it happened it would take some serious prior planning, a bit more than for a Chapter Fly-in but way less than a typical AV. This is a fun thought experiment, not something that's being executed next week. And to be clear I'm not advocating hundreds of folks show up to Osh by any method out of the blue. I'm currently a DoD logistics planner (and was one for most of my 20 year USAF career before that) so I understand a thing or two about the 2nd and 3rd order effects of this type of undertaking.

[saber25]

"I'm currently a DoD logistics planner (and was one for most of my 20 year USAF career before that) so I understand a thing or two about the 2nd and 3rd order effects of this type of undertaking". That explains it!

If you're set on this idea, why not find a quiet, out of the way, non controlled field in a State located halfway between Florida and Wisconsin. It'll be a great experiment in herding while culling simultaneously.

[Auburntsts]

"I'm currently a DoD logistics planner (and was one for most of my 20 year USAF career before that) so I understand a thing or two about the 2nd and 3rd order effects of this type of undertaking". That explains it!

If you're set on this idea, why not find a quiet, out of the way, non controlled field in a State located halfway between Florida and Wisconsin. It'll be a great experiment in herding while culling simultaneously.

Never mind— I’ve no interest in trying to actually plan a hypothetical event at the moment or shoot holes in a undeveloped idea. I think Carl was shooting for something fun to discuss with his OP but apparently it’s not to be.

[CarlOrton]

Never mind— I’ve no interest in trying to actually plan a hypothetical event at the moment or shoot holes in a undeveloped idea. I think Carl was shooting for something fun to discuss with his OP but apparently it’s not to be.
Thanks, Todd; you're right.

This country was founded on the ability to have the PURSUIT of happiness, not have it given to us. I agree these are bleak times, but if we don't do something to entertain ourselves, then we're doomed to failure. I'm doing what I can. We self-isolate - we don't even allow our unmarried adult son to come visit, because he still has to go to work in an essential career. He just sits at home, all alone, entertaining himself. I refuse to give up. Sure, an ad-hoc (there - better term) Convention *might* be fun, or *might* be doable, but isn't it at least a diversion to *think* that we might have a chance to have the greatest week, rather than have the doc look at us and say, "Might as well give it up...you're gonna die anyway...."

[Wrongway Feldman]

They just came out and said yesterday 4-2-20, that you can spread the virus by just breathing and talking.
And you should cover your mouth & nose with a scarf or something when going outside near people.

After being inside for a couple of weeks I drove to the grocery store.
I freaked out when I had the vent fan on in the car, it was blowing air in my face.
I pushed the recirculate button to recirculate the air in the car rather than bringing in air from outside.

The check out lady at the grocery store said because I brought in my own paper bags, I had to bag my own groceries.

This is getting weirder by the minute.

[robert l]

Does anyone on here personally know someone that has the virus, not just symptoms, but the actual Coronavirus ? Supposedly there are cases at the hospital where my wife works, (ground zero for S.C.) but she hasn't seen them, and they have sent so many employees home she said it's like a ghost town. Just wondering out loud. :|
Bob

[skyfixer8]

Does anyone on here personally know someone that has the virus, not just symptoms, but the actual Coronavirus ? Supposedly there are cases at the hospital where my wife works, (ground zero for S.C.) but she hasn't seen them, and they have sent so many employees home she said it's like a ghost town. Just wondering out loud. :|
Bob


I have a friend in Detroit, has AFIB and stage 3 kidney problem. she is in 10th day of the virus. Doctor said if it got worse to call hospital. Fever broke last night after a week of fever, sleepless nights and aches. All in all, she is on the mend.

Bill L

[skyfixer8]

Well, in the vein of wishful thinking, IF AV20 is cancelled (and I think it will) and IF conditions improve so that travel and social distancing restrictions are lifted at some point before the Fall, then I'm all for an "old-school" fly-in convention like EAA used to have. If vendors can attend, great but not required. If folks can't make it -- no worries, see ya in 2021. No one said that a grass-roots convention has to duplicate a regular AirVenture. With just some modest logistics support, it could be done and could be a lot of fun.


I sort of miss the early days on light crowds, not so much jet noise and people who were actually interested and amazed by home built airplanes and old fashion aerobatics. very few vendors that actually sold aviation merchandise and no furniture. Also, if you had an aviation certificate, you got in for free.
Guess I been going there too long LOL

[Airmutt]

Don’t you mean could access the flight line??? And everyone referred to as the convention.

I didn’t make my first show until 1977 even though I joined in 72. Took my dad. We arrived on opening day and we were camper unit 101 and car camped in what was then called the North 40, now the Homebuilt exhibit area. The Blue Barn was an equipment shed that was repurposed to a country store. Live entertainment like the Whistler and old aviation movies were shown in the Theater in the Woods. And yes it very much had a friendlier family feel.

The Marines ensured I didn’t get back until 85. Even the late 80s weren’t too bad. It all seemed to start changing when rebranded as AirVenture. The growth was good for EAA financially and as a lobby organization but the old guard never liked the changes.

Here in Georgia the state went into lock down mode at 1800 local. They locked the gates on all the state and county parks and we can’t even go RC flying. Really, wants the world coming to. :mad:

[Kevin O'Halloran]

I had a fraternity brother that died this week in OKC from the coronavirus---healthy until he got sick
this hit very close to home. This stuff is real. I retired Jan 1. Glad I no longer see patients.
This would be my 27th year in a row to go to Oshkosh. I usually fly up in May for a work weekend
I'm starting to feel like a 7 year old thats been told there would be no Christmas.

[robert l]

Glad she is doing better sky, has she been taking the med that are recomended?
Bob

[Kyle Boatright]

Does anyone on here personally know someone that has the virus, not just symptoms, but the actual Coronavirus ? Supposedly there are cases at the hospital where my wife works, (ground zero for S.C.) but she hasn't seen them, and they have sent so many employees home she said it's like a ghost town. Just wondering out loud. :|
Bob

Yep. A guy (ex-navy) I worked for one summer when I was in school died earlier this week. My employer has also had multiple positive testings in its manufacturing facilities, driving several facility closures, clean-ups, and the like.

[Kyle Boatright]

They just came out and said yesterday 4-2-20, that you can spread the virus by just breathing and talking.
And you should cover your mouth & nose with a scarf or something when going outside near people.

<snip>

This is getting weirder by the minute.

It is getting weirder by the minute. The state of Georgia, just yesterday, basically said stay at home unless you're in a critical line of work. Today, the state re-opened the beaches. Incredibly poor planning and conflicting directives like these are why this thing will continue to torment us for months. So many people think "Can't happen to me" or "Just this once" or whatever, and pretty soon, you have major portions of society doing really dumb things.

My family is trying to be really disciplined and is NOT going to the grocery store to pick up a bag 'o chips. We're making a list and having instacart pick our groceries every week or 10 days, so we can grab 'em without going in the store. And I can live if Instacart selects bruised bananas or forgets the hot dog buns. We'll deal with it next time. But I'm not sure our behavior represents the majority of people.

[Airmutt]

Kyle, good thing you didn’t experience yesterday afternoon’s events...your head would have exploded.
I did go out and top off my truck. Hours before the order went into effect the store parking lots were just jammed full. It may have been 78 degrees but Walmart looked like it was Black Friday all over again. Absolutely insane. Just how much pasta, rice, spaghetti sauce and baked beans do ya need? They ain’t buying paper products because there’s none to be had.

Great news paid $1.38/gal, oh there’s no place to go, dang!

[skyfixer8]

She wasn t given meds by doctor. been taking tylenol to keep fever down.

[Wsquare]

An idea. There are multiple pre-AirVenture fly-in events that take place just prior to AirVenture. Usually in the form of type club gatherings, etc. These types of events are smaller, and are likely possible, due to the existing tradition of planning, and because each of them are much smaller than AV, they can be nimble and flexible, as we emerge from this situation. Maybe even some of the corporate folks will host fly-ins, such as a Dynon Fly-in located in the Wisconsin area. What might happen is essentially a “diffusion” of AV, into many smaller events that can be planned, and delivered in a much more nimble manner. Then, we get the opportunity to fly around the area, visiting the dispersed events, and having a very different kind of AV experience. I will be watching for these types of events, and pick the one, two, three, or more that fits my interests the most. And if EAA is on top of this, they would be facilitating this type of “distributed planning”. As the OP said “Contingency Planning”. Let’s all hope we have AV this year, but plan for other possibilities. Just an idea.

Thanks, Wayne

[Airmutt]

Wayne, EAA has been there, done that. There was a time (late 70s) when EAA did regional fly-ins. Seems to me the concept only lasted a few years. SNF was a spin-off from that era. Interestingly enough AOPA picked up on regional fly-ins for the last couple of years.

There are several real unknowns that impact any future event.....
1. When will the infection rate turn negative.
2. What is the threshold for government to lift the ban on public gatherings.
3. What will it take for the general public to have confidence in attending large public gatherings; sports, airshows, etc.
4. How will the economic downturn/recovery impact discretionary spending, such a as attending events like AV or SNF.
Just to mention a few.

[Wsquare]

Yes. Understand all the unknowns. However, what I am thinking would be very different than "regional fly-ins". For example, the Ercoupes gather just before AirVenture (usually about 3 or 4 days prior), at an airport in the vicinity of Oshkosh - this year set for Wausau, WI. Many other type clubs, or "birds of a feather" groups, do the same thing, in the larger vicinity of Oshkosh, spreading out in a 100 to 200 miles radius. The Pietenpol group meets at Brodhead, WI, a few days prior to AV. I am aware of one group that says they are "go" for this year. And, since they are much smaller, and more nimble than AV, they will be able to remain in "go" status, with a decision point that occurs just before the scheduled start of the fly-in. While EAA needs to make a "go" / "no go" decision much earlier (perhaps even May) because of all the event logistics, these smaller and dispersed types of "pre-AirVenture" events don't have to make such an early decision, because they don't have to consider all the AirVenture types of logistics that EAA needs to put in place for a VERY large crowd. Under this concept, these types of dispersed "mini fly-ins" can make the decision as late as early to mid-July, instead of the May decision point for EAA for AirVenture. This concept "buys" up to two months of time for the unknowns to be resolved. In this case, time is good. Since they tend to be smaller, focused groups -- like type clubs, they have the internal communications that they need for this type of flexibility. I think this is possible, and if some of these smaller "mini fly-ins" are go, then I will be there, trekking to WI for an aviation gathering. And, in my opinion, if EAA were on their game, as well as corporate entities such as Dynon or uAvionix were on their game, they would be locating these types of "AirVenture affiliated" pre-Oshkosh fly-ins, and finding ways to get involved, just in case AV doesn't happen this year, but the smaller "affiliated" fly-ins do take place. Again, contingency planning, much like the kind of planning that we do as pilots -- alternate airports, divert plans, weather, near airport after maintenance, etc. All based on risk mitigation, while continuing to pursue the mission to the extent possible.

Thanks, Wayne

[rwanttaja]

Wayne, EAA has been there, done that. There was a time (late 70s) when EAA did regional fly-ins. Seems to me the concept only lasted a few years. SNF was a spin-off from that era.
One of them was Arlington (Washington). An accident occurred, and EAA got named in the lawsuit (they were the deepest pocket). IIRC, the plaintiff was awarded $8M, though it was set aside on appeal. I believe this was one of the triggers for EAA to stop sponsoring the regional fly-ins.

Ron Wanttaja

[Wsquare]

Yep. Always the attorneys. Not talking about regional fly-ins. All I know is that if there are pre-AirVenture fly-ins taking place (again, these are NOT regional fly-ins), during the July 15 to 20 time frame, within the general vicinity of Oshkosh, WI, I will be there, flying my airplane and enjoying the aviation spirit. My first hope is that AV 2020 takes place, but I am working on contingency plans, just as I do in all my aviation pursuits.

Thanks, Wayne

[Floatsflyer]

Yep. Always the attorneys. Not talking about regional fly-ins. All I know is that if there are pre-AirVenture fly-ins taking place (again, these are NOT regional fly-ins), during the July 15 to 20 time frame, within the general vicinity of Oshkosh, WI, I will be there, flying my airplane and enjoying the aviation spirit. My first hope is that AV 2020 takes place, but I am working on contingency plans, just as I do in all my aviation pursuits.

Thanks, Wayne

Dude, STAY HOME. Don't allow your cult-like devotion to Oshkosh or your horribly misplaced concept to fly to different small town airports in Wisconsin, take over whatever good sense you may otherwise possess.

Dude, STAY HOME. Don't undermine or place in jeopardy your own health and more importantly the health of those at those small towns where you want to travel to hold these little fly-ins for flyboys in their little airplanes.

Dude, STAY HOME. Please understand and become aware that 99.999% of the world do not know what an Oshkosh is, or where it is and don't give a flying fadoo about it. And you must also begin to understand and become aware that you and your followers will place grave and undue extra pressure on the limited medical, infrastructure, goods and services resources for the residents of these small town communities. They too are grappling with how to deal with this highly infectious, deadly virus that knows no borders and does not discriminate. They don't need weekenders and day trippers.

Dude, STAY HOME. Follow the guidelines of physical distancing and all the other easy procedures you've heard about. Stay safe, stay informed and stay in. We just might see you next year at Osh.

[Wsquare]

No problem. Highly dependent on world view, values, and beliefs. Virtually all COVID models are based on physical distancing thru May, which if correct, would leave June as a time to come out of hibernation, and get on with life. If the models are incorrect, and physical distancing measures need to be utilized into July (or beyond), then I will abide by the guidance of the authorities, and not be flying around. However, if the models are correct, as assembled by experts in their fields (ie, epidemiologists), then the projections are for June to be a month of “beginning to return to life”, followed by July, in which things get ramped up, and the economy begins to engage. If the month of July arrives, and COVID is becoming a bad memory, and small towns in WI are putting out the welcome mat for the pre-AirVenture fly-ins, then I’ll be there, helping their economic recovery, but only if all is “GO”, and the events are advertised as “open for pilots that want to fly-in”. If not, I understand, and I’ll stay home and move to my next contingency plan, no problem. That’s why it’s good to have contingency plans. Keeps life flexible, resilient, and adaptable. Recommend to Google “IHME COVID-19” for a good example of a predictive model - one can even check the prediction for their own state, or even Wisconsin.

Thanks, Wayne

[Bill Berson]

Seems to be under control now. But might get a second wave around July.

[Airmutt]

There are a number of type groups that gather in or around Wisconsin prior to their arrival to AV. I suspect the “quality” of the gathering is based on the strength of the type club and the numbers that attend. Although the individual members may be EAA’ers the type clubs are not affiliated with EAA. Don’t really see EAA getting involved.

A few years ago my wife and I drove to Oshkosh taking the scenic route up the Mississippi. Spent the night in Iowa, on the way out we stumbled into the L-bird gathering. The Piper Cherokee group gathers at the airport near our cabin in Wisconsin. It’s fun to watch them work on their formation flying. The local EAA chapter also schedules their monthly corn roast brat fry to accommodate them. Makes for a good time.

As an alternate, several kit manufacturers hold open house weekends and some homebuilt types hold their own gatherings. There are a number of very good non-EAA related fly-ins and shows around the country. A really excellent event in the SC is Triple Tree which is held in early September. I’m sure others will chime in on those in their region.

When we get thru this mess you certainly have many options before and after Oshkosh. In the meantime fly locally and stay healthy.

[Bill Greenwood]

WAYNE, if you visit small towns this summer, you will likely find them friendly and glad for your business, just like most folks on this forum, (not all) and at osh if we get to go.
Obviously you wont go unless you feel well, and I have not heard of any virus hotspot in Wi.
They eat cheese curds there, not bats.

[Wsquare]

Seeking to place the data and model projections into perspective, to help inform my contingency planning. Keep in mind that for a typical flu season in the US, the average mortality rate is as follows:

2017-2018 season = 61,000 deaths
2018-2019 season = 34,200 deaths

If one visits the following web link.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Scroll down for the model projection on mortality, the numbers are as follows (for model dated April 5, 2020):

Expected mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 81,671 (on the order of twice, to slightly more than, the typical seasonal flu)
Low estimate of mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 49,431 (within the range of a typical flu season)
High estimate of mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 136,174 (more than double the "recent" highest mortality from seasonal flu)

(*Note: the model uncertainty is a result of uncertainty in the input parameters and assumptions. One approach is to use a technique termed Monte Carlo Simulation to consider uncertainty in a modeling process. The outcome is generally an expected value (or average), along with high and low estimates for future projections.). (*Also note: this discussion is not meant to diminish any loss of life, as every life is precious, and is only meant to consider the situation from a quantitative perspective).

Four main takeaways for me. 1) The COVID process seems to have the potential of moving behind us, as of early June. 2) The model assumes "full social distancing" through May 2020. 3) The projections of mortality rate seems to be proximal to seasonal flu counts, while the economy takes a big hit due to the required social distancing. 4) COVID-19 is deadly and needs to be taken very seriously, and physical distancing along with the associated economic implications, are realities that we need to accept.

Yes, there is always the possibility for a second wave, if the first wave is not sufficiently stomped out using physical distancing, etc. Hopefully this won't happen, but no guarantees. We need to follow all the CDC recommendations!

The timeline depicted in the epidemiological models makes it difficult for an organization such as EAA to make the "GO" / "NO-GO" decisions, due to the long lead time that is needed for an event as large as AirVenture (so many contracts to sign - committing funds for an event that may not happen).

However, the smaller pre-AirVenture fly-ins can be more nimble, and flexible, with a shorter timeline to making the "go" / "no-go" decision. Maybe some of them will be in a position to make a "go" decision at the last moment, and there might be various "mini fly-ins" in the vicinity of KOSH. If this is the case, my contingency plans will allow me to attend and enjoy the "rather different" AirVenture experience. If this happens, this "rather different" AirVenture may, in fact, turn out to be a very interesting and enjoyable experience.

As noted earlier, until then I plan to fly locally as long as legally allowed, and stay healthy by practicing all the CDC recommendations, without letting up my guard until this scourge is in the rear view window.

Take care, Wayne

[rwanttaja]

Seeking to place the data and model projections into perspective, to help inform my contingency planning. Keep in mind that for a typical flu season in the US, the average mortality rate is as follows:

2017-2018 season = 61,000 deaths
2018-2019 season = 34,200 deaths


I have a passing acquaintance with statistics analysis. This is what scares the bejesus out of me:
http://www.wanttaja.com/cv.jpg
(This is US deaths only, from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Ain't showing any sign of flattening out, yet.

On the news the other night, they said that Washington state typically saw about 100 deaths due to flu in a year. We've had over 300 deaths due to COVID-19 in the last two months.

Wisconsin is in the middle of the pack regarding infections. But consider: Does Wisconsin *really* want thousands of visitors from New York, New Jersey, Florida, and California in just three months? Several states, such as Florida, have imposed quarantines on drive-in visitors from New York. What's our assurance the Wisconsin governor won't do the same to airplanes from Florida?

Been flying a lot. It's a good time to have a single-seat airplane.....

Ron Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

The Florida I-95 check point rollout on Sunday was a major fail. They tried routing all traffic thru the visitors center. Traffic immediately backed up in excess of 2.5 hours and they had to stop. The goal was to question everyone but semi’s would get a immediate pass. Someone didn’t think it out and they ensnarled the trucks with the passenger vehicles. I understand Texas is now trying to stop people escaping New Orleans for Texas. Attempting to cross state lines in the near future could get ...mmmm interesting?? “Papers please, show me your papers.”

Oshkosh has several pretty good sized music festivals scheduled for early and mid summer. One has already postponed the others are like EAA and are in the wait and see mode. Ron, I think you’re right. The fear is when the numbers start to turn down we slacken up our guard and then have to deal with a second wave. Personally I think we’re done for large gatherings for the year.

[Wsquare]

Good conversation. The graph is an attention getter, and is currently at 10k. Recall that the expected mortality value when this is over, according to the IHME analysis (see referenced web site) is about 81k, occuring early June. Thus, the graph is projected to continue to rise to about 8 times the current value. To a number that is about 20k greater than the 2017-2018 flu season (which was 61k). So, the rising numbers are expected, according to predictions, and are expected to be a bit more than typical flu mortality. Certainly a concern, but doesn’t scare me.

In our life, we are always making decisions on “cost vs. risk”, such as how big to build a bridge. Bigger means safer, but will cost more. At some point, we decide, big enough, the remaining risk is something we need to live with. Even with our aircraft. And certainly with healthcare, even before pandemic. There is always a cost to reduce risk. How much can we afford at this time? Some are saying if we stay isolated through May (the time used in the models), our country will enter a depression, beyond the depths of the ‘30s (* Note: have not seen any predictive economic models with the degree of granularity of the COVID models, but am interested if anybody knows of some). And some are asking - what is the equivalent value of 100 points on the DJ Industrials, in terms of lost life? Difficult questions, but these questions and answers have been, and are, asked every day in policy making. Example is groundwater pollution where monetary values are put on each human life (currently about $1.5 million - google it), and remediation plans are designed according to expected (or de minimus) loss of life due to pollution exposure.

We don’t live in a zero risk world, and monetary value of human life is used all the time to inform public policy. Not necessarily a pleasant thought, but reality, if we are to advance as a modern society.

If the folks in Wisconsin roll up the welcome mat, and/or the models are incorrect, I’m fine with that and will not pursue this activity. It is beyond anything I can influence, and why I have additional contingency plans. Only time will tell, and until then, I’ll keep my calendar clear, my airplane ready, and be ready to launch for some fun times at either AV 2020, or some type of flying activity in the KOSH vicinity.

Take care, be safe, and manage the risk,
Wayne

[LUSCOMBE PHANTOM]

[QUOTE=rwanttaja;81000]One of them was Arlington (Washington). An accident occurred, and EAA got named in the lawsuit (they were the deepest pocket). IIRC, the plaintiff was awarded $8M, though it was set aside on appeal. I believe this was one of the triggers for EAA to stop sponsoring the regional fly-ins.

Ron Wanttaja[/QUOT That is precisely why the EAA is no longer affiliated with the Arlington fly in.

[rwanttaja]

That is precisely why the EAA is no longer affiliated with the Arlington fly in.
And no longer affiliated with Sun N Fun, Copperstate, etc. The Arlington accident was the trigger, but EAA doesn't partner with anybody, anymore.

Ron Wanttaja

[LUSCOMBE PHANTOM]

8348As stated in the post's listed here, " Its best to stay home ". I attended OSHKOSH from 1989 to 2014 as a vendor at the seaplane base, so I have seen a lot of the weather and unexpected things that can happen at Wittman field and a variety of other places there in the Oshkosh area.

Just to refresh everybody's memory about last year, the rain really made it a muddy mess to just be on the field. The one immutable fact about Oshkosh is this, the EAA and the city of Oshkosh are joined at the hip in perpetuity, one cant exist with out the other, its just that simple. There is no other airport in the United States for the EAA to move to, and there isn't another city with an airport and acreage like Oshkosh that will welcome the huge crowds that the annual Oshkosh gathering generates.

Wittman field is clay and it doesn't drain very well when there is heavy torrential downfall, which happens often there.

The idea that the EAA is trying to set up, to print an event dated 2020 OSHKOSH T-Shirt, even if the annual gathering is called off, noble gesture, but not anchored to common sense. If Norm Peterson was alive right now and in good health, his counsel on such matters would carry a lot of weight indeed, sadly folks of his ilk, and common sense, are far and few these days !

No doubt the annual pilgrimage to OSHKOSH is something that myriads of people love to attend, but to do that this year, in hopes of regional gatherings or just a lot of people milling around the city of Oshkosh is a recipe for disaster, to get that 2020 patch or any other souvenir from the annual gathering, really, its just not worth the financial, or logistical, or health risk, to congregate at the annual Mecca of Aviation. IMHO.

So take some time to really digest all of this and make the right decision to " STAY HOME " and practice good social distancing, its literally a matter of life and death!

[Kyle Boatright]

So take some time to really digest all of this and make the right decision to " STAY HOME " and practice good social distancing, its literally a matter of life and death!]

First, I think the event will probably be cancelled.

Second, the fat lady may be warming up, but she hasn't sung yet. I'll wait until she grabs the mic and announces a cancellation before I completely give up.

Third. I'm tempted to buy a 2020 t-shirt either way.

[robert l]

First, I think the event will probably be cancelled.

Second, the fat lady may be warming up, but she hasn't sung yet. I'll wait until she grabs the mic and announces a cancellation before I completely give up.

Third. I'm tempted to buy a 2020 t-shirt either way.

Roger/Wilco Boatright, I'm getting rid of a bunch of tee shirts anyway, so I need something to replace a couple with.
Bob

[azmedic85355]

I don’t think EAA is going to be calling the shots on whether or not Oshkosh is canceled. I would expect there to be an order from the Wisconsin governor limiting groups of certain sizes once the restrictions start to ease.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Boss]

I don’t think EAA is going to be calling the shots on whether or not Oshkosh is canceled. I would expect there to be an order from the Wisconsin governor limiting groups of certain sizes once the restrictions start to ease.
B I N G O ! Local government will have final say. ;)

[CHICAGORANDY]

I'm no kind of world renowned epidemiologist -a trained 4th generation Funeral Director/Embalmer? Yes, in truth I am, but no pandemic genius. In my feeble attempts to compare AirVenture to other International type events, meaning vast crowds of visitors from all over the globe, I cannot help but note the result of my 10 second Googling effort just now :


Originally scheduled to take place JULY 24 - August 9, 2020 the Summer Olympic Games have been rescheduled due to the SARS CoV2 pandemic a year later to July 23 - August 8, 2021.

Just sayin'.

[Airmutt]

Been saying the same thing on another thread.

There is a small town outside of Albany GA that just got hammered due to two funerals conducted by the same minister before the social distancing policies got implemented

Even if approved, the caveats would probably force EAA into some serious changes. Could they react fast enough to comply?

The rural areas of Wisconsin are relatively unaffected but they still want folks traveling to their cabins to shelter for two weeks upon arrival. I am sure the governor doesn’t want to generate a second wave by permitting a large gathering that has such a wide draw. It would be irresponsible and political suicide. Don’t see any silver bullet coming in time to save AirVenture.

[rwanttaja]

I'm no kind of world renowned epidemiologist -a trained 4th generation Funeral Director/Embalmer? Yes, in truth I am, but no pandemic genius. In my feeble attempts to compare AirVenture to other International type events, meaning vast crowds of visitors from all over the globe, I cannot help but note the result of my 10 second Googling effort just now :


Originally scheduled to take place JULY 24 - August 9, 2020 the Summer Olympic Games have been rescheduled due to the SARS CoV2 pandemic a year later to July 23 - August 8, 2021.

Just sayin'.
But part of the reason the Olympics were postponed was because the restrictions, even if removed by the scheduled date of the event, affected the athletes' ability to prepare and affected nations' preliminary contests used to select who represents their countries. Not really a factor, here.

However, as another participant here mentioned, making the decision in May is impossible without a clairvoyant or a time machine. Even an O-320-powered Ouija board won't tell you what the actual restrictions are going to be in Wisconsin in late July. An early cancellation would hurt, but a late cancellation would hurt far worse.

Ron Wanttaja

[CHICAGORANDY]

I have noted before that MY Oshkosh plans are 100% fluid and can turn on a dime up to about 72 hours before. For me an easy few hour drive North through the Cheddar Curtain checkpoint puts me at the motel for my 9 day stay. Plus, through booking.com I can cancel that room penalty free with very little advance notice to the motel.

But I'm not one of the many thousands who have to book non-refundable travel from half-way across the globe or from the lands just East of the Atlantic Ocean.

[Floatsflyer]

But part of the reason the Olympics were postponed was because the restrictions, even if removed by the scheduled date of the event, affected the athletes' ability to prepare and affected nations' preliminary contests used to select who represents their countries.
Ron Wanttaja


Just to clarify:

On March 18, the Tokyo Olympic Committee said it need another 4 weeks to make a go or no go decision.

The Tokyo Olympics 2020 were cancelled and rescheduled to July, 2021 because on March 22 the Canadian Olympic Team became the very first country to say it was cancelling its participation because of COVID19 health risks if the 2020 games went ahead. Many other big team countries including Australia soon followed suit with a hell no, we won't go. Two days later on March 24, the Japan Olympic Committee, Japan's PM and the IOC cancelled the games saying they would reschedule to July, 2021.

Interesting update to all of this. Yesterday, Tokyo Olympics CEO Toshiro Muto said there is "...no guarantee the Games will go ahead in 2021. I don't think anyone would be able to say if it's possible to get the pandemic under control by next July or not."

[Floatsflyer]

-a trained 4th generation Funeral Director/Embalmer? Yes, in truth I am, but no pandemic genius.

But you do so obviously appreciate the COVID19 montra: Better to be 6 feet apart than 6 feet under!

[robert l]

Well I guess everybody got the letter from EAA today.
Bob

[CarlOrton]

What letter?!?

[Kyle Boatright]

What letter?!?

The one you and I didn't get.

[Floatsflyer]

Must be another one of Bob's conspiracy theories

[Airmutt]

Air Academy sessions for 2020 cancelled per the website. Can register for 2021. I assume that’s what he is referring to.

[Floatsflyer]

Air Academy sessions for 2020 cancelled per the website. Can register for 2021. I assume that’s what he is referring to.

No. He said, "well I guess everybody got the letter from EAA today" The Academy notice was a posting on the website. He's assuming Members got a phantom letter like he did.

[CarlOrton]

Since I asked what letter, the mail was delivered and, yup, there was an EAA letter. Foundation. Asking for $$$to improve educational opportunities.

One line, though, said they were proceeding with plans for the show to go on....

[Bill Berson]

Last time I checked, the Milwaukee Democrat convention was moved from mid July to August 18.

[robert l]

Sorry guys, I got busy and just now got back to the computer. The letter I got says; They are following state mandates and they are closing the EAA Aviation Museum, canceling activites at the Oshkosh facilities and supending the Ford Tri-Motor flights for the next 30 days. "We are still moving ahead with our plans for AirVenture, our annual family reunion, and will keep you advised." If you want I can scan the letter and post if any of you doubt that I got a letter, (Floats) lol.
Bob
Oh, I'm going off line again now, shower time.

[Floatsflyer]

Sorry guys, I got busy and just now got back to the computer. The letter I got says; They are following state mandates and they are closing the EAA Aviation Museum, canceling activites at the Oshkosh facilities and supending the Ford Tri-Motor flights for the next 30 days. "We are still moving ahead with our plans for AirVenture, our annual family reunion, and will keep you advised.".

I have not received any letter. And to me it really doesn't matter because none of this is news. EAA made these pronouncements public the week of March 14, a month ago. I posted about this stuff on March 21 under another related thread. Furthermore, if you go to the EAA website you'll find a March 26 posting that they are still moving ahead with Osh.

Move along, move along, nothin' to see here kid.

[mbalexander]

I'm not sure I know what the big deal is.

If you don't feel safe going to OSH, DON'T GO!!

[CHICAGORANDY]

I'm not sure I know what the big deal is.

If you don't feel safe going to OSH, DON'T GO!!

True - but for those who've attended for a long time and for those for whom this will be a once-in-a-lifetime experience, for the over 7,000 volunteers like me who make the event happen, for the 800+ exhibitors who ARE a big chunk of what AirVenture is all about, and for all those across the planet now questioning whether or not to spend the HUGE amount -many times not refundable - that an airplane ticket and other transportation to Oshkosh, WI, USA costs, not to mention all the paid laborers, countless service and food companies and workers and the 'kinda' important' $$ infusion into the whole area for the event? It IS a big deal whether or not the event happens.

Worth noting last year's numbers -

https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-news/eaa-airventure-oshkosh/7-30-2019-AirVenture-2019-Facts-and-Figures-for-a-Record-Year

Other than that, the possibility of catching a presently incurable virus, and if you're older - like a large % of EAA member and AirVenture attendees are -the slight possibility said virus WILL kill you? Life is good, says I.

[Airmutt]

Missing an AirVenture won’t kill anybody. Going and contracting COVID could for some.

The next month is going to be interesting to see how the local, state and federal governments attempt to start the recovery. There has been signs of infighting already: local v state, state v fed.

The big deal is whether AirVenture even happens. If it’s a go, it will also be interesting to see what public health mandates are imposed and how EAA will handle. I’m of the opinion that social distancing is going to be with us for quite a while, at least thru the summer. That is going to seriously impact how AV has been conducted. No more herd mentality. Think about it, a line of 500 people at admissions on opening morning is two thirds a mile long. Hmm, that would put me just about next to the SOS BROTHERS tent. Do they serve breakfast??

[mbalexander]

True - but for those who've attended for a long time and for those for whom this will be a once-in-a-lifetime experience, for the over 7,000 volunteers like me who make the event happen, for the 800+ exhibitors who ARE a big chunk of what AirVenture is all about, and for all those across the planet now questioning whether or not to spend the HUGE amount -many times not refundable - that an airplane ticket and other transportation to Oshkosh, WI, USA costs, not to mention all the paid laborers, countless service and food companies and workers and the 'kinda' important' $$ infusion into the whole area for the event? It IS a big deal whether or not the event happens.

Worth noting last year's numbers -

https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-news/eaa-airventure-oshkosh/7-30-2019-AirVenture-2019-Facts-and-Figures-for-a-Record-Year

Other than that, the possibility of catching a presently incurable virus, and if you're older - like a large % of EAA member and AirVenture attendees are -the slight possibility said virus WILL kill you? Life is good, says I.



Sorry Randy. I guess I should've left out the first line. :)

[CHICAGORANDY]

No worries mate - we are all simply responding to the possibility of NO AirVenture 2020 with our heads and our hearts at the same time. Hopefully we'll know for sure in a few weeks or so?

[Mayhemxpc]

Time for my rant, which you will all take as you wish.

everything in life is risk management. Can I get killed trying to get to OSH? A dual engine failure crossing Lake Michigan or running into an embedded TRW that popped up since the last ADS-B weather refresh? Am I going to catch dysentery and die a truly horrible death, or wish I had, from eating at the food court? Is the guy below me in the airshow stack going pull up right in front of me?

These are all risks. We recognize the hazards, assess the likelihood of the hazard being realized, the probable effects, and make decisions on managing that risk. What we cannot do, individually or as an organization, is let fears control us. Much of what I see and read is based on fear, not reason. Two months ago we had no idea where we would be today and none of us know where we will be two months from now. Or even one month from now.

Your chances of dying from the flu are still greater than dying from the current politically correctly named virus. That does not downplay that risk, but it is just one more risk to assess and manage. Along with the risk of driving or flying to OSH, there is the risk of a tornado killing you in your tent in the middle of the night or becoming violently ill from something else you are exposed while there.

I am not saying to go ahead or cancel. If EAA as an organization decides to go ahead, it is still an individual decision whether to go or stay home...as it is every year. I am simply saying that these decisions need to be based on rational risk management, not fear of the unknown.

Final thought. To borrow related concept. An airplane in the hangar is safe, but that is not what airplanes are for.

[rwanttaja]

Certainly, everything in life is risk management. I fly a homebuilt aircraft with an unfortunate record of in-flight wing failures.

But then...it's a single-seat airplane. I risk no one but myself. Tragedy for my wife, of course, tragedy for my remaining family and for the few friends I have left. But it stops there.

That's the problem with COVID-19: It doesn't stop there. Once you're infected and contagious, you can be spreading the disease for up to two weeks before you actually show symptoms. Sure, I might take the risk for myself...but am I going to take the risk for my wife, the (other) old geezers in my EAA chapter, my 95-year-old father, the checker at the grocery store, the server at my favorite restaurant?

This is a highly contagious disease. Few people now alive have experienced its like. What was once science fiction is now the daily news.

Maybe attending a packed forum at Oshkosh is worth the risk to you....but do have the right to take that kind of risk with other people's lives? And if they cancel the forums...or limit attendance to maintain social distancing...how many people are going to scream that they've been cheated?

As for "No worse" than the flu, well. In the first four months of the flu season in Washington state, there were 91 deaths. There have been more than five times as many due to COVID-19 in just the last two months. And about three times that of the entire 2018-2019 flu season. In just two months. And the deaths continue.

Also, I don't recall past flu seasons where New York City had to bring in refrigerated trailers to temporarily store the dead, or where hospitals in other areas are stacking bodies in unused rooms.

If you think this is "just like the flu", talk to the nurses and doctors who deal with it. Even the President now says this is not like the flu.

And, again, we can look at the US mortality curve for COVID-19:
http://www.bowersflybaby.com/cv_april14th.JPG

(from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

It actually is starting to taper off a little bit (look at the logarithmic plot) but we're still looking at tens of thousands of additional dead.

Now, there's good news out there. Places that took early action by closing schools and businesses and limiting contact are seeing some tapering off. Washington State has managed to control the contagion well enough to not completely overwhelm health-care facilities. San Francisco also reacted early, and is keeping things under control. New York City thinks they've peaked.

But...as ever, we don't know what things are going to look like in three months. Cramming 150,000 or so people onto an airport in Wisconsin will surely be pushing things.

And as for the "Politically correct" name...blame, in part, the pork industry. It took a huge hit when one strain of human influenza was named "Swine Flu," even though no one could actually catch it from ham, bacon, or any of the other luscious products. It was part of the reason a more scientific nomenclature was developed.

Ron Wanttaja

[azmedic85355]

Where does it stop? Do we panic and close everything next year when the new and improved virus comes around? At some point we need to get on with our lives and accept inherit risks. As for the refrigerated semis...they do that at many hospitals across the country during flu season. The only difference is the news never reported on that because the flu is so common place. I saw more than one semi for this purpose in my EMS days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mbalexander]

Time for my rant, which you will all take as you wish.

everything in life is risk management. Can I get killed trying to get to OSH? A dual engine failure crossing Lake Michigan or running into an embedded TRW that popped up since the last ADS-B weather refresh? Am I going to catch dysentery and die a truly horrible death, or wish I had, from eating at the food court? Is the guy below me in the airshow stack going pull up right in front of me?

These are all risks. We recognize the hazards, assess the likelihood of the hazard being realized, the probable effects, and make decisions on managing that risk. What we cannot do, individually or as an organization, is let fears control us. Much of what I see and read is based on fear, not reason. Two months ago we had no idea where we would be today and none of us know where we will be two months from now. Or even one month from now.

Your chances of dying from the flu are still greater than dying from the current politically correctly named virus. That does not downplay that risk, but it is just one more risk to assess and manage. Along with the risk of driving or flying to OSH, there is the risk of a tornado killing you in your tent in the middle of the night or becoming violently ill from something else you are exposed while there.

I am not saying to go ahead or cancel. If EAA as an organization decides to go ahead, it is still an individual decision whether to go or stay home...as it is every year. I am simply saying that these decisions need to be based on rational risk management, not fear of the unknown.

Final thought. To borrow related concept. An airplane in the hangar is safe, but that is not what airplanes are for.


I couldn't have said it better myself. GOOD ON YOU!!

Ron, the numbers are being skewed. I'm reading, seeing, and hearing that if someone dies, no matter what they died from, if they had covid symptoms, they're reporting that they died from covid.
There again, I say if you're "afraid" to go to OSH for any reason at all.......DON'T GO.

[rwanttaja]

Ron, the numbers are being skewed. I'm reading, seeing, and hearing that if someone dies, no matter what they died from, if they had covid symptoms, they're reporting that they died from covid.

So all the medical professionals in New York City are lying. Death rates haven't increased; they're just hanging around the hospitals pulling in overtime pay and laughing at peoples' naivete. None of them have the integrity to go to the press and blow the whistle on this huge scam. All those refrigerated vans are just for show, Dr. Fauci is lying, the whole CDC is in on it. They've hid the truth from the President....or he's participating.

There's a thing called "Occam's Razor:" Where multiple explanations for a situation are possible, the preferred solution is the simplest. If you find a dent on your car door in the parking lot at the store, it could have been caused by one of King Kong's toenail clippings...or someone bashed it with their own car doors when opening.

Sure, there could be some sort of "Deep State" conspiracy to manufacture death reports for whatever reason conspirators deem necessary. Or, in fact, it could be good ol' Mom Nature taking another whack at improving the herd...like she does every five-ten years or so. She seems to come up with a doozy ever hundred years.

Snopes reposted a good article showing how people's reaction to COVID-19 is similar to how folks reacted to the plague in the 14th Century....

https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/14/coronavirus-black-death-rumours-and-remedies-show-how-little-people-have-changed/

No doubt there were those screaming about the "altum statum" back then, too.


There again, I say if you're "afraid" to go to OSH for any reason at all.......DON'T GO.

I realize it's un-American to say this, but I'm reluctant to cause other people's deaths. If you think that makes me a coward, so be it.

This is the quandary EAA is in right now. Economically, they need to hold AirVenture. But they have two issues hanging over the heads.

The first is the moral issue: Should they hold the event with the very real possibility that it may foster the spread of COVID-19, leading to the deaths of attendees and their families? It doesn't matter if the individual attendees accept the risk. EAA has to accept the moral responsibility if this ENTERTAINMENT activity leads to the death.

EAA accepts this, to some extent, already. Last year, there were 30 fatal aircraft accidents across the US, around the Oshkosh time period. Certainly some of those were on their way to or from Airventure.

But aircraft crashes aren't contagious. COVID-19 is, virulently so. And huge public events like Airventure are ideal for the virus. Read an article recently that compared New York's COVID rates vs. California's. New York's is much higher, because people are packed close and use mass transportation more. Remind you of Airventure?
https://www.boldmethod.com/images/blog/lists/2014/08/9-reasons-why-eaa-airventure-2014-was-the-best-ever/crowds.jpg

So EAA has to balance its economic need with the understanding that it may lead to a much higher risk of sickness or death among its membership.

The ironic thing is that the result of such contagion won't be immediately apparent. If, say, 1,000 attendees are infected, they won't start showing symptoms until they get home. On the last day of Airventure, people will cheer how their gambles paid off.

But, a week or so after returning home, they'll start getting sick. While they or their families may make the connection, there's no tracking among the attendee list as a whole. Our only clue will be an uptick in the "in memorial" entries in Sport Aviation.

Of course, though, someone will sue EAA, and it may all come out then.

I mentioned two issues hanging over EAA's heads, regarding whether to hold Airventure. The second is whether they'll be allowed to.

Washington State, New York, and California, the hardest-hit states, are reaching their peaks. But they're highly populated, allowing the disease to spread more rapidly. It spreads slower in less-populated states. But it IS spreading.

When will Wisconsin peak? We don't know, and neither does EAA. Wisconsin currently bans assemblies of 50 or more persons. With three months to go, I suspect this will be lifted. But what other limitations will remain? And if COVID-19 flares up again (as is predicted, once many states drop their limitations), how does EAA know they won't get hit with huge limits right before the event?

All speculative, of course. Several times in this thread, we've decried the crystal ball shortage.

But, from the purely economic standpoint, EAA has got to dig one up from somewhere. Cancel early, and they cut their losses. If they're forced to cancel late, it'll cost them much more. The uncertainties across the country are going to cost them many of the volunteers that the event relies on; a late cancellation may lead to lawsuits from vendors. Many potential vendors are hurting right now, and may be cancelling in any case. Even with ideal health conditions, it's likely that attendance will be way down...hurting, again, the vendors that depend on Airventure for a portion of their business.

Don't envy EAA, that decision....

Ron Wanttaja

[Kyle Boatright]

When will Wisconsin peak? We don't know, and neither does EAA. Wisconsin currently bans assemblies of 50 or more persons. With three months to go, I suspect this will be lifted. But what other limitations will remain? And if COVID-19 flares up again (as is predicted, once many states drop their limitations), how does EAA know they won't get hit with huge limits right before the event?

Ron Wanttaja

I'm not even sure Wisconsin's peak is relevant. People come to Airventure from 50 states and dozens of countries. Basically the crowd is a global mix, geographically weighted to favor the Midwest, then the East Coast, West Coast, and Canada, followed by representatives from the 4 corners of the flat earth.

I just can't see EAA going forward with it unless there is an identification/treatment miracle in the short term medical pipeline.

[rwanttaja]

I'm not even sure Wisconsin's peak is relevant. People come to Airventure from 50 states and dozens of countries. Basically the crowd is a global mix, geographically weighted to favor the Midwest, then the East Coast, West Coast, and Canada, followed by representatives from the 4 corners of the flat earth.
I look at Wisconsin's peak as being relevant from the political angle. If cases are still rising in July, the governor would be less likely to relax restrictions. If the peak was in, say, June, and was high, people would be skittish about it and be less likely to allow a major event.

In any case, international travel, right now, is basically banned. Even crossing from Canada requires justification. It's likely this will be relaxed by summer, but I suspect the market for recreational travel is going to be low for a while.

Ron Wanttaja

[CHICAGORANDY]

IMHO, and I'm trained as an embalmer not an epidemiologist, ONLY three things will put us all back in "normal' contact with each other, total testing, a proven therapeutic drug regimen that easily treats and reduces the symptoms, and a proven, tested vaccine.

There "could" be a slight chance that a drug therapeutic could be discovered and tested in the next 60 days? T
here isn't a snowball's chance in Hades that a vaccine will appear before AirVenture 2020 dates. And there is barely a chance that the necessary super-fast, accurate, easily self-administered testing protocol can be invented. There then remains the supply chain reality that it is most unlikely that any of those three things could be brought up to the scale needed in time.


On Dec 8th. 1941 Roosevelt NEEDED a war supplies on a global scale manufacturing machine NOW. It wasn't fully functional and in place by May 7th, 1942.... but it WAS created here in America, for Americans and then to help free the world at large. Not an inaccurate parallel to what we face right now battling SARS CoV2, again IMHO.

Just sayin'.

[LUSCOMBE PHANTOM]

I am truly amazed at some of the posts on this particular thread. I appreciate the eternal optimism about the potential of OSHKOSH 2020 happening. I never did care for the renaming of the annual event to " air venture ", it sounds too much like a business deal. If asked, the majority of old timers will still refer to it as OSHKOSH rather than " air venture.

But that keyword " business " as its linked to " airventure " is just that, " BUSINESS ". Lets not forget that this annual gathering is about money and revenues that can be taken in by the EAA, the element of seeing old friends and enjoying the realm of vintage aircraft and home built's and war birds and forums, is about 4th down the line of what is important. IMHO.

That being said, think about it, there is no way the EAA is going to, at this late date say its going to call it all off for this year. They depend on that annual revenue for the EAA's existence. So indeed, they will wait till the last minute to make any real valid announcement that its a official NO GO for 2020. The ultimate decision will be made by the state of Wisconsin.

After attending this event from 1989 to 2015, I saw a lot of change, and each year the prices of putting all of the logistics together to attend as a vendor at the sea plane base just kept getting out of hand. 2014 was the last year of sales for me, and 2015 was the last time I went to OSHKOSH as a non vendor and it was the last time I got to walk the entire field and see so much that I usually would not get to see by being out at the sea base all week.

As I was walking out the gate to head to the parking lot, I had to take this one last shot of a sign that wasn't too far inside of the gate. It pretty much summed up what a person would be seeing on their way into the main grounds once through the gate. The prices on that sign were from 2015, you can bet all of the prices are higher now. And now add in the specter of " potential death from exposure to a deadly virus " and indeed the price gets much higher.

I know how addicting it can be, to able to go to OSHKOSH year after year, I totally get that. But to think that there is a myriad of ways to avoid this virus and still have large crowds at OSHKOSH, is sheer folly of the deadliest nature!

Be wise and be safe, all of you aviation enthusiast, stay home and just adapt to the fact that NOT attending OSHKOSH this year will be the best decision, financially and common sense wise that you have ever made.

You can bet that the powers that be at EAA are just going nuts trying to figure out what to do next, only a matter of time till the EAA will announce that its cancelled in an official sense, regardless of how the preparations are going at this moment.

You can imagine that if the EAA had its way, it would be selling official " AIR VENTURE " protective particle masks, to be worn on the field, and charging $20.00 each for them, I say that in a tongue in cheek way based purely upon past experiences with how the corporate element of the EAA works.

8362


8363

[rwanttaja]

You can imagine that if the EAA had its way, it would be selling official " AIR VENTURE " protective particle masks, to be worn on the field, and charging $20.00 each for them, I say that in a tongue in cheek way based purely upon past experiences with how the corporate element of the EAA works.


But...but...that's IT! The perfect souvenir for Airventure 2020.

http://www.wanttaja.com/mask.jpg

Ron "Guys with big schnozes get the Merlin version" Wanttaja

[LUSCOMBE PHANTOM]

Imagine a sea of people at OSHKOSH all wearing something with some official EAA logo on it with the date 2020. That immediate recognition from one another that its not a good idea to have a gathering this large!
83648365

[rwanttaja]

But...but...that's IT! The perfect souvenir for Airventure 2020.

Silly me. Turns out there's a company that sells face masks with sectional charts printed on them, for several airports. Oshkosh is one option....this one shows Sun-N-Fun.

https://www.chartitall.com/product-page/sectional-chart-face-mask
https://static.wixstatic.com/media/dac049_80fd069b47a942ebb6ff268905cb7695~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_2400,h_2400,al_c,q_85/dac049_80fd069b47a942ebb6ff268905cb7695~mv2.jpg
Ron "Why, yes, I ordered one" Wanttaja

[Airmutt]

If AV happens they will be the most popular vendor onsite!!! They should make reusable/washable gloves out of their shower curtain material too.

[LUSCOMBE PHANTOM]

Back in 90, at OSHKOSH, there was a vendor selling " Stealth B-2 Bomber Condoms " They came in a slick black package that was in the shape of the B-2 bomber and the logo said, " they will never hear you coming ".
The guy was selling them at 1 package for $3.00 and 2 packages for $5.00. They sold out very quickly, he even had white boxer shorts with that same logo on the shorts that he was selling for $10.00 a pair. He was selling outside of the fence and was quickly sold out before the EAA could get to him to shut him down, ( they were pissed that they didn't get a cut of the action ). Northrup Corporation took him to court for copy right infringement. I have two of those packages somewhere in a box, I bought them purely as a collectors item.

What a great country, hula hoops, pet rocks, B-2 stealth bomber condoms, and now a potential novelty sectional mask. Right up there with those little orange wind socks on safety wire that attached to your hat, I always cracked up when ever I saw those on peoples hats.

Gotta give the innovator credit for the sectional masks, but its doubtful that the potential huge crowds of people will ever get to wear them at OSHKOSH 2020. That being said, no doubt online sales will do well. Anything to generate revenue!

[mc20]

why are you posting with such a large font

[LUSCOMBE PHANTOM]

The reason is, it makes it a hell of lot easier to read the post's than having to squint at the default font, I assume that makes sense to you?

[rwanttaja]

The reason is, it makes it a hell of lot easier to read the post's than having to squint at the default font, I assume that makes sense to you?

With many browsers, you can hit Ctrl and the equals key (plus) to make the web-page larger, or Ctrl and minus to make it smaller. Then you're not dependent on what other people pick for font size.

Ron Wanttaja

[LUSCOMBE PHANTOM]

Precisely !
Beside all of that, its nice to be able to read the text in a manner that isn't just same old same old bland.

It still cracks me up as to why some people insist on " alleged " rules of choosing fonts, when the element of choosing is an individuals prerogative!

And to MC20, right back at you! Be well and do well.

83868387

[rwanttaja]

Precisely !
Beside all of that, its nice to be able to read the text in a manner that isn't just same old same old bland.

Try "Comic Sans" font.

Ron "Still mean" Wanttaja