Accident in Phoenix

[Bill Greenwood]

We dont have a category for safety items or accident discussion, so I will put it here. Sadly,Monday night was a fatal accident in the Phoenix area. It was a Piper Pa-24, a single engine Comanche, and had just taken off from the Scottsdale airport. We dont have any real info as to possible engine problems or anything else, but one thing comes to mind, that there were six people on board. Now, I dont have any weight and balance info for that model, but I know in my own plane,Be 36 I could not take six adults with any baggage and much fuel. I recently flew with 4 adults, probably close to 170 lb average and with bags had to ship one bag fedex as well as use half fuel to just barely stay under gross weight allowed. And I have 300 hp turbocharged, I think the Piper may be 260 hp, though some are 400 hp. The runway is long there, so may have taken off ok, but had problems climbing, and or turning on course. The plane was at least 46 years old, since it hasnt been made since '72, but obviously not an engine that old, may well have been in good shape, we dont know details on that, nor any info on the pilot's experience or time in type.
A sad thing, no more know at this time as to where they were from or may have been going.
And I know some people will say not to discuss an accident till all facts are known. I think a better approach is if there is a likely cause or factor, like weather or loading, lets remind everyone to use caution for that. And we are getting to the time of year when a lot of people start flying again.

[rwanttaja]

The FAA registry identifies it as a PA-24-260, which, I believe, is the six-seat version of the aircraft. However, while there's not much details on the victims so far, from some of the online stories, they appear to have been young adults.

Anybody have any insight into Comanche weight and balance? Many planes have real limits as to the mass in the last row. From one of the online news stories, sounds like there were adults back there.

Reported purchase date for the airplane varies, but one has it as late as February of this year. Don't know if the pilot had owned another one before, but I'm sure the NTSB will be looking into pilot experience levels.

Ron Wanttaja

[jam0552@msn.com]

They were all “Instagram stars” between 23 and 28. The pilot was 28. They were all adults, if w&b was a factor.
sad, they were all soooo young.
Joel Marketello

[rwanttaja]

From another group, the aircraft type had a nominal useful load of 1372 lbs, but the third row was limited to 250 (one source says 200). Density altitude 3300 feet.

One source says the pilot got his license in October last year, another said he had only a student certificate. However, it is said the right-seat occupant was a CFI, and one of the videos mentioned instruction. All the occupants were from Las Vegas, which implies they'd flown to Arizona in that airplane.

Ron Wanttaja

[jedi]

Near record temps in PHX that day. They may have delayed departure for cooler night time temps.

Not much cooling though and what cooling there was may have been mostly a temperature inversion with an attempted climb into higher temps.

[S3flyer]

Kathryn Report has some details: http://www.kathrynsreport.com/2018/04/piper-pa-24-comanche-n9456p-fatal.html

Some highlights:


There was an ATP/part-time CFI onboard that had amassed 4500 hrs.
" Highly placed aviation sources with intimate knowledge of the investigation say the leading theory is that the aircraft was overweight and simply lost lift during takeoff."

The plane seemed to rise just feet off the runway, not gaining any altitude. It alarmed the person in the tower to the point where she radioed the pilot, asking if there was trouble:


Tower: "Comanche 5 6 ... experiencing any difficulty?"
Pilot: "Ah, we're good.. we're just in training mode."
Moments later, the plane crashed.


I also found a POH and W&B of a 260 online and that planes particular useful load was 1284lb and the max weight in the back seats was 235lbs. The Comanche has a 60 gallon fuel capacity with an option for 30 gallons more. Assuming 60 gallons of fuel leaves only 924lbs of room for 6 adults plus luggage.

[Floatsflyer]

I think we all know what factors contributed to this tragic, avoidable accident that allowed 6 young people to die needlessly. Over gross, possible wrongful loading and as Ron W. reported a high density altitude of 3300 ft.

My only rhetorical question is why didn't the ATP/CFI recognize the W&B issues staring him in the face with red flags waving furiously?

[rwanttaja]

I think we all know what factors contributed to this tragic, avoidable accident that allowed 6 young people to die needlessly. Over gross, possible wrongful loading and as Ron W. reported a high density altitude of 3300 ft.

My only rhetorical question is why didn't the ATP/CFI recognize the W&B issues staring him in the face with red flags waving furiously?

At this point, I'm in to pure speculation. But let me make some guesses.

1. There was probably a weight issue, but not necessarily a balance issue. I believe S3flyer's note about an example of this model having a 235-pound limit in the aftmost seat, but we don't really know at what point an overload in the back seat would be a problem. The Kathryn Report description is of a plane being too heavy, with no indication of control issues.

2. The pilot may have gotten into the classic trap..."I flew it, no reason I can't fly out." The plane had landed on a flight from Las Vegas just a half-hour before the accident. Nothing implies that passengers were added in Scottsdale, so it's likely all six seats were filled on the original flight from Vegas. If so, why would the pilot assume anything different on departure? The difference was probably a lot higher density altitude in Scottsdale vs. Vegas, but the pilot didn't necessarily pick up on that.

3. And if he had...what would he have done about it? Four of the six onboard had no aviation background. "You're going to leave two of us behind because it's too HOT? We took off from Vegas, and landed here OK." Hard to fight that peer pressure.

4. One of the things about being an old pilot (vs. a bold one) is that you've seen too many friends die, often for very stupid blunders. Guys like Floats, Bill, and me have been to enough funerals to know that dumb things CAN kill you. But it takes lots of experience to learn that, and those who are younger might doubt the moral of the lesson until they're too deep into the scenario.

Ron Wanttaja

[Bill Berson]

No reason to automatically assume it was overweight without actual evidence. The three woman may have been light weight. It apparently climbed to 11,500 ft on the trip down. That suggests it was not overweight.

[Floatsflyer]

One of the things about being an old pilot (vs. a bold one) is that you've seen too many friends die, often for very stupid blunders. Guys like Floats, Bill, and me have been to enough funerals to know that dumb things CAN kill you. But it takes lots of experience to learn that, and those who are younger might doubt the moral of the lesson until they're too deep into the scenario.

Ron Wanttaja

Read those accident causation short summaries. Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself.

[BoKu]

No reason to automatically assume it was overweight...

But plenty of reason to suspect it.

[Bill Berson]

Everything is suspect at first. But it did climb high enough to apparently stall and go straight in. So why did it stall? I would check everything suspect after an impact 1/2 mile from the airport. Such as wrong fuel. Wrong tank, etc.

I would ask the Tower controller if he was accelerating in ground effect or climbing directly after liftoff? And runway length used? In my opinion, with a long runway it is best to climb above ground effect soon to test the aircraft climb ability rather than get the extra kinetic energy and find later it won't climb out of ground effect when it is too late.