The More Things Change, The More Things Remain The Same

[Floatsflyer]

Just read this insightful article on the short lived post war boom and bust of GA. Of particular interest are the mind blowing stats and the fact that the manufacturers expanded their marketing and advertising strategies by reaching out to a wider audience in print media of the time and retailing in department store chains rather than just preaching to the traditional choir. Made me think of when Neiman Marcus published their Christmas gift giving catalogue which included an Icon.

I found myself thinking about LSA as I was reading and how all the same expectations, surveys and market research 67 years later were used to support and promote the passage of LSA. LSA(or any other GA initiative ) will never match those precious few years when GA exploded so I'll just call it a cautionary tale.


http://www.generalaviationnews.com/2013/02/the-post-war-bubble/

[Frank Giger]

Agreed.

My personal feeling is that in 20 years private aviation is going to resemble the 1930's - airplanes at the very high end and planes at the very low end; playboys and slightly nuts blue collar play-abouts taking to the air.

I put myself firmly in the latter; my homebuilt is low performance, daytime VFR, open cockpit, and yes, I'll be wearing a leather flying helmet and goggles. :)

I also will put ten dollars US down that in 20 years there won't be a public GA airport near a metropolitan area or a county with a high or very low tax base. The FAA is going to look at their budget and the number of pilots and start de-funding the county airports that are even now empty of traffic 95% of the time. Private airports and strips will become the norm, like hunting clubs or country clubs.

[Joe LaMantia]

Frank,

I think your "spot on" regarding county airports. The mid-west is covered with county airports and many are barely used, the local govt.s don't have the $$ to maintain the runways and the Fed's credit card is "maxed out". We already have thousands of hangers full of old single-engine aircraft that sit most of the time. Their owners are getting older every day and high operating costs keep these old birds on the ground. Being a senior citizen, I can and do fly on weekdays. I rarely see another aircraft around these little airports with no hamburger facilities on site. If I fly on Saturday, I'll have some company when the weather is CAVU, but nothing like the traffic volume of 20 years ago.

Joe
:cool:

[Anymouse]

I also will put ten dollars US down that in 20 years...

You gotta sweeten the pot a bit. In 20 years, that ten dollars won't buy a quart of 100UL.

[Hal Bryan]

Of particular interest are the mind blowing stats and the fact that the manufacturers expanded their marketing and advertising strategies by reaching out to a wider audience in print media of the time and retailing in department store chains rather than just preaching to the traditional choir. Made me think of when Neiman Marcus published their Christmas gift giving catalogue which included an Icon.

It was interesting that you mentioned department stores - a good friend of mine is building an exhibit for the College Park Aviation Museum that will, in part, recreate an Ercoupe store display from 1946, as seen in Macy's, I believe. Aside from Neiman Marcus as you mentioned (I remember them selling a personal blimp in the '80s, and, more recently... the Moller Skycar) I don't know of anything like that that's happened in years.

[Mike M]

:) The FAA is going to look at their budget and the number of pilots and start de-funding the county airports that are even now empty of traffic 95% of the time. Private airports and strips will become the norm, like hunting clubs or country clubs.

i think that was why we all had to get new plastic certificates and now have to re-register aircraft every three years. culling the herd. one would think counting medicals could do it, but no medical for light sport, glider, or ultralight and ATC without airman certificates require medicals, as i recall. that blurs the numbers. count a bunch of different ways and extrapolate through a fog of politics, that's the gummint way.

[Floatsflyer]

It was interesting that you mentioned department stores - a good friend of mine is building an exhibit for the College Park Aviation Museum that will, in part, recreate an Ercoupe store display from 1946, as seen in Macy's

Tried to find a picture of the Macy's Ercoupe floor display, no luck. But here's the Macy's ad from 1945 announcing their sales in the mens department:

http://ercoupe.com/ads_3.php

Sam Walton(Walmart) was a lover of GA and a pilot. In 1954 he began using his plane(an Ercoupe) to scout the best spots for new store locations. Perhaps some enterprising new aircraft manufacturer could leverage this information to stike a deal to recreate what Macy's did 68 years ago. Time is long overdue, stop just preachin' to the choir and expand to unconventional marketing initiatives. Your very welcome, I'll expect a 5% royalty on every aircraft you sell. I hate going to Walmart but if they had a floor display selling airplanes, I'd go willingly!

[Anymouse]

It was interesting that you mentioned department stores - a good friend of mine is building an exhibit for the College Park Aviation Museum that will, in part, recreate an Ercoupe store display from 1946, as seen in Macy's, I believe. Aside from Neiman Marcus as you mentioned (I remember them selling a personal blimp in the '80s, and, more recently... the Moller Skycar) I don't know of anything like that that's happened in years.

Now that's cool!! It will make a great addition. That little museum has grown quite a bit from when it only occupied one half of a run down trailer. I really need to get back there and check it out.

A little known fact: The airfield where Ercoupes were built is inside the pattern at College Park Airport.

[Frank Giger]

Btw, the cost for a factory new Ercoupe in 1959, when adjusted for inflation to today's dollar, was $55,600.

This was possible because there was no LSA category; LSA aircraft, as we know, must be made of space age polymers and have avionics to rival the SR-71 or they just don't cut the mustard.

[Floatsflyer]

The Macy's advertised price for its Ercoupe in 1945 was $2,994.00

Some Cost of Living numbers for 1945(read 'em and weep):

Average new home-$4,600.
Average new car-$1,020.
Average yearly wage-$2,400.
Cost of a new mens shirt-$2.50
Cost of 1 gal. of gas-15 cents

The only thing that makes any sense in today's terms when adjusted for inflation and COL is the shirt! Then again, the shirt's made in Bangladesh.