View Full Version : New Math?
Mattmutz2
08-01-2012, 08:39 PM
I went through my archive at home from my time on staff... I can't find documentation about when EAA changed the way they "count" admissions. Perhaps an on-staff historian remembers? I can think of two that certainly should. My neighbor, a lifetime member, seems to think it was 2003, 2004, or 2005. But, regardless of *when*, if you change the way you "count" then is that not automatically some "creative accounting"?
If I'm teaching my daughter to count, am I allowed to tell her sometimes a dozen is 12, and sometimes it is 21.3?
My concern is for the Oshkosh residents and our neighbors in surrounding townships/counties/etc. I strongly believe EAA overstates their economic impact on the area. I don't doubt that "convention" I mean, AirVenture, of course, brings in money, but I know the numbers are overstated.
I'd like to see sources. Maybe some EAA reports, or tax filings. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly buy y'all a beer and apologize.
Jim Heffelfinger
08-01-2012, 09:21 PM
Here is one published report
http://winnebago.uwex.edu/files/2010/09/WittmanRegionalAirport2007EconomicImpactAnalysisRe port.pdf
(http://winnebago.uwex.edu/files/2010/09/WittmanRegionalAirport2007EconomicImpactAnalysisRe port.pdf)
Unwiredone
08-01-2012, 10:22 PM
It was shared with me that the 'local' economic impact was $113 Million a year. I have the documentation from the EAA that backs this up.
Mattmutz2
08-01-2012, 10:26 PM
Here is one published report
(http://winnebago.uwex.edu/files/2010/09/WittmanRegionalAirport2007EconomicImpactAnalysisRe port.pdf)
Ooh, good stuff. Thank you for the share. I'd never seen this before.
Mattmutz2
08-01-2012, 10:27 PM
have the documentation from the EAA that backs this up.
I have good reason to doubt any "documentation" from EAA.
Anymouse
08-02-2012, 09:56 AM
I have good reason to doubt any "documentation" from EAA.
Are you related to Jim Campbell??
Mattmutz2
08-02-2012, 08:48 PM
Are you related to Jim Campbell??
I am not. But here is a great quote from him
Time is not on our side. At most, we have 5 years and maybe fewer before the only GA left is business aviation and the very wealthy.
Source:http://aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&ID=79F9AB5B-1E75-47BC-954F-A7925D2A8DE7
Burtles
08-02-2012, 09:47 PM
Matt,
According to published sources, EAA changed their counting method in 2006. From the 1980's until 2005 they used to report attendances in the 700,000 and 800,000 range. There was a lot of skepticism about the validity of these numbers. In 2006 the number was published as 545,000 and EAA said they were correcting past counting errors.
Since then the attendance has been published as:
2006 - 545,000
2007 - 560,000
2008 - 540,000
2009 - 578,000
2010 - 535,000
2011 - 541,000
2012 - 508,000
Which does show what many could observe with their eyes - attendance this year was way down.
Can't blame the economy or the weather. My theory is that it was a combination of aggressive price increases, along with the departure of most of the marketing department.
martymayes
08-02-2012, 10:18 PM
Wow, they might have a challenge on their hands to break 500,000 next yr. There is easily 8000 PO'd members.
Will probably have to relocate the event closer to the population center of the US to facilitate attendance. Population center of the contiguous US is in Missouri.
Obviously the attendance number have little relevance because the organizers are going to call the event a roaring success regardless of attendance.
Unwiredone
08-02-2012, 10:19 PM
Matt,
According to published sources, EAA changed their counting method in 2006. From the 1980's until 2005 they used to report attendances in the 700,000 and 800,000 range. There was a lot of skepticism about the validity of these numbers. In 2006 the number was published as 545,000 and EAA said they were correcting past counting errors.
Since then the attendance has been published as:
2006 - 545,000
2007 - 560,000
2008 - 540,000
2009 - 578,000
2010 - 535,000
2011 - 541,000
2012 - 508,000
Which does show what many could observe with their eyes - attendance this year was way down.
Can't blame the economy or the weather. My theory is that it was a combination of aggressive price increases, along with the departure of most of the marketing department.
Amazing how all the numbers are all even thousands. A statistical anomaly? If the math is so accurate in what they use, give us the REAL number of wristbands sold and exactly how many people attended the event.
steveinindy
08-03-2012, 01:42 AM
If the math is so accurate in what they use,
It's population statistics, there's always a margin of error. Anyone who tells you they have an exactly perfect count of anything involving near that many people is either lying, delusional or good ol' fashioned bats**t insane.
give us the REAL number of wristbands sold
Because that number is meaningless when trying to predict actual attendance? The attendance numbers are based on a calculation (for example: A "week" wristband only gets used on average for five days so you account for that) which winds up giving you a statistically insignificant string of numbers which gets rounded accordingly.
and exactly how many people attended the event.
Like almost every major event especially multi-day ones where tickets/wristbands are sold ahead of time, it's almost impossible to get an absolutely precise number unless you're locking the place down tight (like NORAD level tight) and counting people coming and going. One of my friends is a concert promoter and the rule they use for a major three day festival that they take part in is that 70% of the folks who buy the "weekend" pass stay the entire time. What might smell like "someone's up to no good!" is probably actually just basic statistics. I know this forum has become the "(I HATE THE) EAA Forums" more than anything else (especially with Matt around) but lay off the tinfoil hat level conspiracy theories guys.
Will probably have to relocate the event closer to the population center of the US to facilitate attendance. Population center of the contiguous US is in Missouri.
If Matt has a leg to stand on and the city is getting bent over and, well you know (kids read the forum....can't get too graphic), then maybe they should tell the half a million or so folks who come to the southern edge of Nowhere in Wisconsin every year to take their money elsewhere.
Obviously the attendance number have little relevance because the organizers are going to call the event a roaring success regardless of attendance.
Even if the number give is inflated by 20%, you're looking at 406,400 people. That is nothing to sneeze at. That's just about half the population of Indianapolis for the purposes of comparison.
Jim Rosenow
08-03-2012, 06:57 AM
I am not. But here is a great quote from him
Time is not on our side. At most, we have 5 years and maybe fewer before the only GA left is business aviation and the very wealthy.
Source:http://aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&ID=79F9AB5B-1E75-47BC-954F-A7925D2A8DE7
Matt- Checking your source, your quote comes from an article authored by one John Ylinen, per the by-line. You attribute it to Campbell, who is the publisher of the e-mag. FWIW...
Jim
Aaron Novak
08-03-2012, 09:43 PM
If Matt has a leg to stand on and the city is getting bent over and, well you know (kids read the forum....can't get too graphic), then maybe they should tell the half a million or so folks who come to the southern edge of Nowhere in Wisconsin every year to take their money elsewhere.
.
Nowhere Wisconsin???? I guess coming from the cesspool called Indy....I guess our corner of Wis seems pretty boring :)
Jim Heffelfinger
08-03-2012, 10:54 PM
Well boys, Don't make Uncle Hal get the soap out to solve your squabbling.
steveinindy
08-04-2012, 07:31 AM
I guess coming from the cesspool called Indy....I guess our corner of Wis seems pretty boring
I'm not "from" Indy. I just happen to live here for the time being. This place sucks much worse than Wisconsin but you have to admit that Oshkosh isn't exactly "on the way" to many places that don't have a more direct route there which was my point. Most people who wind up in Oshkosh were intending on going there.
That said, I'd take Oshkosh over Indy any day. In fact, I'd take pretty much anywhere over Indianapolis. The only reason I haven't seriously considered moving to Oshkosh is because there are not any graduate programs within driving distance of there for what I want to study. I am considering some of the nicer suburbs of Milwaukee because of Marquette and Medical College of Wisconsin though if that counts for anything.
Our tourism people like to say that Indy has "all the benefits of a city with a small town feel" when in fact it's more like "All the drawbacks of a city with very few of the benefits". Calling this place a cesspool is giving it far too much credit. The best thing that can be said for it is that it's not Detroit (although, having lived in both areas, it's rapidly becoming just as bad as "the D"). Oshkosh at 9 pm in the middle of a blizzard is more exciting and active than downtown Indy after 7 pm during the best weather.
Unwiredone
08-04-2012, 10:04 AM
Oshkosh at 9 pm in the middle of a blizzard is more exciting and active than downtown Indy after 7 pm during the best weather.
That's pretty funny, yet then again, you could say that about most urban centers around the country.
steveinindy
08-04-2012, 10:18 AM
That's pretty funny, yet then again, you could say that about most urban centers around the country.
Yeah, but most urban centers (if you can call Indy urban for anything other than a thriving minority population and the popular but misguided use of the term 'urban' as a code word for 'black') which roll up the sidewalks after dark or turn into war zones (looking at you Detroit) don't actively try to claim that the downtown area is 'thriving' at night.
kscessnadriver
08-04-2012, 10:31 AM
I am not. But here is a great quote from him
Time is not on our side. At most, we have 5 years and maybe fewer before the only GA left is business aviation and the very wealthy.
Source:http://aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&ID=79F9AB5B-1E75-47BC-954F-A7925D2A8DE7
That article is so full of mis-information, its not even funny. This perpetuated myth that LSA was supposed to make flying cheaper is nothing but total and utter BS. It was meant to regulate a bunch of airplanes that were not legally operating. The new build LSA's are just a biproduct of it.
There simply is no plan that can save GA. GA takes money and most people don't have it these days. It's simply a sign of the times. More people would rather bitch about their problems online than would go out and actually try to fix their problems.
Kyle Boatright
08-04-2012, 11:35 AM
There simply is no plan that can save GA. GA takes money and most people don't have it these days.
Interesting. I've heard that comment many times, but the reality is there are scads of people living in half million dollar houses driving $50k vehicles. They have the cashflow to fly IF THEY WANTED TO. IMO, that's the problem - for whatever reason, people would rather do other things as opposed to fly. Presumably it is a generational thing where kids from the 30's through the 60's grew up with aviation on the front page of the newspaper. It was exciting and glamorous and being a pilot was an aspiration of most 12 year old boys.
Now, the only aviation news is when a "little" airplane crashes or when a "big" airplane sits on the ramp for hours and the pax get unhappy.
Mayhemxpc
08-04-2012, 12:58 PM
And that is why AirVenture needs to be the best it can be -- to bring the excitement back. And why we have to carry that excitement away with us -- and our children and be active, positive examples of general aviation. I know that I can do a better job of that myself. When people ask me how I can justify spending the money to fly and own my own plane, my response is something along the lines of: I can't justify it. It is what I want to do. My theory is that every adult male gets one expensive hobby. Do you hunt? Do you own a boat? Go on cruises?... At about that point they get it. (The other expensive hobby is left unsaid...but it can wind up being a LOT more expensive than flying -- or so I have heard.)
Mattmutz2
08-04-2012, 02:01 PM
The only reason I haven't seriously considered moving to Oshkosh is because there are not any graduate programs within driving distance of there for what I want to study.
What field do you want to study as a post-graduate? We have many universities near here that I might be able to help you connect with.
steveinindy
08-05-2012, 10:29 AM
What field do you want to study as a post-graduate? We have many universities near here that I might be able to help you connect with.
Injury biomechanics. U of W-Oshkosh is a great school but they have other areas of expertise. The closest programs I know of (and it's a pretty small field so there's maybe 20 programs in the entire US worth their research funding) are UW-Madison and Medical College of Wisconsin. I can guarantee that with either of those, my fiancee would demand to live in Madison or one of the immediate suburbs of Milwaukee. She's definitely a "city girl" who abhors long distance commutes to work. Thank you for the offer though.
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