Oshkosh 2021?

[Airmutt]

I was actually surprised that EAA made the statement this far out. Personally I don’t think the vaccine availability/acceptance is going to happen in time to reduce the COVID numbers to permit large crowd events. Will also be interesting to see just where Wisconsin’s governor comes down on this issue next Spring. He could play the role of the great spoiler

[robert l]

Pretty soon we may be meeting in basements and barns like the French Underground.
Bob

[CarlOrton]

Pretty soon we may be meeting in basements and barns like the French Underground.
Bob

Isn’t that where EAA meetings started?!? Well, at least the basement part.

[robert l]

Isn’t that where EAA meetings started?!? Well, at least the basement part.

OK, But I was thinking more along the lines of, The Gestapo! Too many people gathering in one spot, are y'all conspiring against the government, are y'all breaking the law in there, come out with your hands up !!!
Bob

[Airmutt]

Your papers, please. .....Mein herr your papers are not in order!

[rwanttaja]

I was actually surprised that EAA made the statement this far out. Personally I don’t think the vaccine availability/acceptance is going to happen in time to reduce the COVID numbers to permit large crowd events.

Availability is certainly up in the air right now; we're being told that everyone who wants the vaccine will be able to get it by June, but A) These are government people talking, and B) Their lips are moving.

Acceptance? Hmmm. I think we'll see some legislative action to prevent lawsuits if one catches COVID after refusing a vaccine. I think the push will be on to vaccinate everyone WORKING at AirVenture, but other than clear warnings, they probably won't require visitors to be vaccinated.

The problem EAA has is trying to estimate attendance. There are still going to be a lot of people reluctant to join in large groups, and we still don't know when the international travel bands will end.

Will also be interesting to see just where Wisconsin’s governor comes down on this issue next Spring. He could play the role of the great spoiler

Once a vaccine is generally available, I think the push towards "normalcy" is going to overwhelming. The rates will start dropping, and the states will re-open. Hopefully, it'll be timed well enough so that the vaccine prevents another spike.

Ron Wanttaja

[Jim Heffelfinger]

Have to agree with Ron. We could have distribution starting this month based on approvals at FDA. CDC just put out a plan of distribution - and without "administration involvement" it actually might happen. Based on that it looks like the general population [US] might have full access by June/July My concern is the international travelers access and the seemingly 30% of the US population that is currently apposed to getting it. That places us at fall before enough herd immunity protects those not vaccinated. I have family at J&J who are a bit further down the curve but are testing a vaccine that is single dose and not requiring super freezers that will be much easier for distribution. I am infinitely frustrated that this pandemic was so egregiously dismissed here in the US.

[GeorgeP]

... That places us at fall before enough herd immunity protects those not vaccinated...

G'day Jim and other EAAers.

I don't believe that any of the manufacturers of the current crop of vaccines are claiming that their vaccine will prevent infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, just that it will prevent severe, and potentially life-threatening, illness after infection. That is, anyone who is vaccinated can still be infected by the virus and spread it to others. I understand that herd immunity will only be achieved once a vaccine can prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. As I have previously stated, I'm not a virologist, so I'd be happy to be corrected by anyone who is qualified.

Sadly, I think that it is highly likely that Osh. '21 will be cancelled. I hope that you all stay safe and healthy.

Cheers from Australia.

[rwanttaja]

G'day Jim and other EAAers.

I don't believe that any of the manufacturers of the current crop of vaccines are claiming that their vaccine will prevent infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, just that it will prevent severe, and potentially life-threatening, illness after infection. That is, anyone who is vaccinated can still be infected by the virus and spread it to others. I understand that herd immunity will only be achieved once a vaccine can prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. As I have previously stated, I'm not a virologist, so I'd be happy to be corrected by anyone who is qualified.

Pfizer press release:

"Primary efficacy analysis demonstrates BNT162b2 to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose;170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group"

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...vid-19-vaccine

Perhaps you're thinking of the report on the effectiveness of the Moderna vaccine. They report a similar effectiveness of around 94%, PLUS the remaining 6% who did develop COVID had mild cases rather than severe ones.

"Vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 was 94.1%; vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 was 100%"

https://investors.modernatx.com/news...e-3-cove-study

Ron Wanttaja

[GeorgeP]

Hey Ron, many thanks for your response and the hyperlinks 👍

Apologies if my previous post was so poorly written that the intended message was not clear. My Year 9 English teacher would be very disappointed with my performance.

Covid-19 is the disease that results from a SARS-CoV-2 virus infection. The vaccines will prevent the disease developing after someone one is infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. I cannot recall any of the manufacturers claiming that their vaccine will prevent the virus from infecting a vaccinated person.

Stay safe.