"most pilots try to rudder around the base to final" - I am not willing to engage in that generality any more. It sounds good to folks looking for an easy point of blame, but my personal observation is that these days "most pilots" do not use the rudder for very much. The airplanes that are used for training hardly need any rudder inputs at all. The common rental aircraft need hardly any rudder inputs. So my conclusion is that it is unlikely that "most pilots" resort to over-ruddering the base to final turn. When I fly with other pilots I often find myself thinking that too many of my peers under use the rudder. I would find a theory that involved over banking or over elevator-ing, with inadequate rudder coordination more likely. That said, that sort of pilot error could simply result in a spin away from the turn rather than a spin into the turn, so without more info any theory could correctly explain the data.

Speculation on inadequate data produces questionable educational value.

Be safe,

Wes
N78PS