Contingency Planning - Return to the days of old?

[skyfixer8]

She wasn t given meds by doctor. been taking tylenol to keep fever down.

[Wsquare]

An idea. There are multiple pre-AirVenture fly-in events that take place just prior to AirVenture. Usually in the form of type club gatherings, etc. These types of events are smaller, and are likely possible, due to the existing tradition of planning, and because each of them are much smaller than AV, they can be nimble and flexible, as we emerge from this situation. Maybe even some of the corporate folks will host fly-ins, such as a Dynon Fly-in located in the Wisconsin area. What might happen is essentially a “diffusion” of AV, into many smaller events that can be planned, and delivered in a much more nimble manner. Then, we get the opportunity to fly around the area, visiting the dispersed events, and having a very different kind of AV experience. I will be watching for these types of events, and pick the one, two, three, or more that fits my interests the most. And if EAA is on top of this, they would be facilitating this type of “distributed planning”. As the OP said “Contingency Planning”. Let’s all hope we have AV this year, but plan for other possibilities. Just an idea.

Thanks, Wayne

[Airmutt]

Wayne, EAA has been there, done that. There was a time (late 70s) when EAA did regional fly-ins. Seems to me the concept only lasted a few years. SNF was a spin-off from that era. Interestingly enough AOPA picked up on regional fly-ins for the last couple of years.

There are several real unknowns that impact any future event.....
1. When will the infection rate turn negative.
2. What is the threshold for government to lift the ban on public gatherings.
3. What will it take for the general public to have confidence in attending large public gatherings; sports, airshows, etc.
4. How will the economic downturn/recovery impact discretionary spending, such a as attending events like AV or SNF.
Just to mention a few.

[Wsquare]

Yes. Understand all the unknowns. However, what I am thinking would be very different than "regional fly-ins". For example, the Ercoupes gather just before AirVenture (usually about 3 or 4 days prior), at an airport in the vicinity of Oshkosh - this year set for Wausau, WI. Many other type clubs, or "birds of a feather" groups, do the same thing, in the larger vicinity of Oshkosh, spreading out in a 100 to 200 miles radius. The Pietenpol group meets at Brodhead, WI, a few days prior to AV. I am aware of one group that says they are "go" for this year. And, since they are much smaller, and more nimble than AV, they will be able to remain in "go" status, with a decision point that occurs just before the scheduled start of the fly-in. While EAA needs to make a "go" / "no go" decision much earlier (perhaps even May) because of all the event logistics, these smaller and dispersed types of "pre-AirVenture" events don't have to make such an early decision, because they don't have to consider all the AirVenture types of logistics that EAA needs to put in place for a VERY large crowd. Under this concept, these types of dispersed "mini fly-ins" can make the decision as late as early to mid-July, instead of the May decision point for EAA for AirVenture. This concept "buys" up to two months of time for the unknowns to be resolved. In this case, time is good. Since they tend to be smaller, focused groups -- like type clubs, they have the internal communications that they need for this type of flexibility. I think this is possible, and if some of these smaller "mini fly-ins" are go, then I will be there, trekking to WI for an aviation gathering. And, in my opinion, if EAA were on their game, as well as corporate entities such as Dynon or uAvionix were on their game, they would be locating these types of "AirVenture affiliated" pre-Oshkosh fly-ins, and finding ways to get involved, just in case AV doesn't happen this year, but the smaller "affiliated" fly-ins do take place. Again, contingency planning, much like the kind of planning that we do as pilots -- alternate airports, divert plans, weather, near airport after maintenance, etc. All based on risk mitigation, while continuing to pursue the mission to the extent possible.

Thanks, Wayne

[rwanttaja]

Wayne, EAA has been there, done that. There was a time (late 70s) when EAA did regional fly-ins. Seems to me the concept only lasted a few years. SNF was a spin-off from that era.

One of them was Arlington (Washington). An accident occurred, and EAA got named in the lawsuit (they were the deepest pocket). IIRC, the plaintiff was awarded $8M, though it was set aside on appeal. I believe this was one of the triggers for EAA to stop sponsoring the regional fly-ins.

Ron Wanttaja

[Wsquare]

Yep. Always the attorneys. Not talking about regional fly-ins. All I know is that if there are pre-AirVenture fly-ins taking place (again, these are NOT regional fly-ins), during the July 15 to 20 time frame, within the general vicinity of Oshkosh, WI, I will be there, flying my airplane and enjoying the aviation spirit. My first hope is that AV 2020 takes place, but I am working on contingency plans, just as I do in all my aviation pursuits.

Thanks, Wayne

[Floatsflyer]

Yep. Always the attorneys. Not talking about regional fly-ins. All I know is that if there are pre-AirVenture fly-ins taking place (again, these are NOT regional fly-ins), during the July 15 to 20 time frame, within the general vicinity of Oshkosh, WI, I will be there, flying my airplane and enjoying the aviation spirit. My first hope is that AV 2020 takes place, but I am working on contingency plans, just as I do in all my aviation pursuits.

Thanks, Wayne

Dude, STAY HOME. Don't allow your cult-like devotion to Oshkosh or your horribly misplaced concept to fly to different small town airports in Wisconsin, take over whatever good sense you may otherwise possess.

Dude, STAY HOME. Don't undermine or place in jeopardy your own health and more importantly the health of those at those small towns where you want to travel to hold these little fly-ins for flyboys in their little airplanes.

Dude, STAY HOME. Please understand and become aware that 99.999% of the world do not know what an Oshkosh is, or where it is and don't give a flying fadoo about it. And you must also begin to understand and become aware that you and your followers will place grave and undue extra pressure on the limited medical, infrastructure, goods and services resources for the residents of these small town communities. They too are grappling with how to deal with this highly infectious, deadly virus that knows no borders and does not discriminate. They don't need weekenders and day trippers.

Dude, STAY HOME. Follow the guidelines of physical distancing and all the other easy procedures you've heard about. Stay safe, stay informed and stay in. We just might see you next year at Osh.

[Wsquare]

No problem. Highly dependent on world view, values, and beliefs. Virtually all COVID models are based on physical distancing thru May, which if correct, would leave June as a time to come out of hibernation, and get on with life. If the models are incorrect, and physical distancing measures need to be utilized into July (or beyond), then I will abide by the guidance of the authorities, and not be flying around. However, if the models are correct, as assembled by experts in their fields (ie, epidemiologists), then the projections are for June to be a month of “beginning to return to life”, followed by July, in which things get ramped up, and the economy begins to engage. If the month of July arrives, and COVID is becoming a bad memory, and small towns in WI are putting out the welcome mat for the pre-AirVenture fly-ins, then I’ll be there, helping their economic recovery, but only if all is “GO”, and the events are advertised as “open for pilots that want to fly-in”. If not, I understand, and I’ll stay home and move to my next contingency plan, no problem. That’s why it’s good to have contingency plans. Keeps life flexible, resilient, and adaptable. Recommend to Google “IHME COVID-19” for a good example of a predictive model - one can even check the prediction for their own state, or even Wisconsin.

Thanks, Wayne

[Bill Berson]

Seems to be under control now. But might get a second wave around July.

[Airmutt]

There are a number of type groups that gather in or around Wisconsin prior to their arrival to AV. I suspect the “quality” of the gathering is based on the strength of the type club and the numbers that attend. Although the individual members may be EAA’ers the type clubs are not affiliated with EAA. Don’t really see EAA getting involved.

A few years ago my wife and I drove to Oshkosh taking the scenic route up the Mississippi. Spent the night in Iowa, on the way out we stumbled into the L-bird gathering. The Piper Cherokee group gathers at the airport near our cabin in Wisconsin. It’s fun to watch them work on their formation flying. The local EAA chapter also schedules their monthly corn roast brat fry to accommodate them. Makes for a good time.

As an alternate, several kit manufacturers hold open house weekends and some homebuilt types hold their own gatherings. There are a number of very good non-EAA related fly-ins and shows around the country. A really excellent event in the SC is Triple Tree which is held in early September. I’m sure others will chime in on those in their region.

When we get thru this mess you certainly have many options before and after Oshkosh. In the meantime fly locally and stay healthy.