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Thread: Contingency Planning - Return to the days of old?

  1. #41

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    WAYNE, if you visit small towns this summer, you will likely find them friendly and glad for your business, just like most folks on this forum, (not all) and at osh if we get to go.
    Obviously you wont go unless you feel well, and I have not heard of any virus hotspot in Wi.
    They eat cheese curds there, not bats.
    Last edited by Bill Greenwood; 04-06-2020 at 09:37 AM.

  2. #42

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    Seeking to place the data and model projections into perspective, to help inform my contingency planning. Keep in mind that for a typical flu season in the US, the average mortality rate is as follows:

    2017-2018 season = 61,000 deaths
    2018-2019 season = 34,200 deaths

    If one visits the following web link.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Scroll down for the model projection on mortality, the numbers are as follows (for model dated April 5, 2020):

    Expected mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 81,671 (on the order of twice, to slightly more than, the typical seasonal flu)
    Low estimate of mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 49,431 (within the range of a typical flu season)
    High estimate of mortality value when the curve is flat on June 1, 2020 = 136,174 (more than double the "recent" highest mortality from seasonal flu)

    (*Note: the model uncertainty is a result of uncertainty in the input parameters and assumptions. One approach is to use a technique termed Monte Carlo Simulation to consider uncertainty in a modeling process. The outcome is generally an expected value (or average), along with high and low estimates for future projections.). (*Also note: this discussion is not meant to diminish any loss of life, as every life is precious, and is only meant to consider the situation from a quantitative perspective).

    Four main takeaways for me. 1) The COVID process seems to have the potential of moving behind us, as of early June. 2) The model assumes "full social distancing" through May 2020. 3) The projections of mortality rate seems to be proximal to seasonal flu counts, while the economy takes a big hit due to the required social distancing. 4) COVID-19 is deadly and needs to be taken very seriously, and physical distancing along with the associated economic implications, are realities that we need to accept.

    Yes, there is always the possibility for a second wave, if the first wave is not sufficiently stomped out using physical distancing, etc. Hopefully this won't happen, but no guarantees. We need to follow all the CDC recommendations!

    The timeline depicted in the epidemiological models makes it difficult for an organization such as EAA to make the "GO" / "NO-GO" decisions, due to the long lead time that is needed for an event as large as AirVenture (so many contracts to sign - committing funds for an event that may not happen).

    However, the smaller pre-AirVenture fly-ins can be more nimble, and flexible, with a shorter timeline to making the "go" / "no-go" decision. Maybe some of them will be in a position to make a "go" decision at the last moment, and there might be various "mini fly-ins" in the vicinity of KOSH. If this is the case, my contingency plans will allow me to attend and enjoy the "rather different" AirVenture experience. If this happens, this "rather different" AirVenture may, in fact, turn out to be a very interesting and enjoyable experience.

    As noted earlier, until then I plan to fly locally as long as legally allowed, and stay healthy by practicing all the CDC recommendations, without letting up my guard until this scourge is in the rear view window.

    Take care, Wayne

  3. #43
    rwanttaja's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wsquare View Post
    Seeking to place the data and model projections into perspective, to help inform my contingency planning. Keep in mind that for a typical flu season in the US, the average mortality rate is as follows:

    2017-2018 season = 61,000 deaths
    2018-2019 season = 34,200 deaths
    I have a passing acquaintance with statistics analysis. This is what scares the bejesus out of me:

    (This is US deaths only, from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
    Ain't showing any sign of flattening out, yet.

    On the news the other night, they said that Washington state typically saw about 100 deaths due to flu in a year. We've had over 300 deaths due to COVID-19 in the last two months.

    Wisconsin is in the middle of the pack regarding infections. But consider: Does Wisconsin *really* want thousands of visitors from New York, New Jersey, Florida, and California in just three months? Several states, such as Florida, have imposed quarantines on drive-in visitors from New York. What's our assurance the Wisconsin governor won't do the same to airplanes from Florida?

    Been flying a lot. It's a good time to have a single-seat airplane.....

    Ron Wanttaja
    Last edited by rwanttaja; 04-06-2020 at 11:32 AM.

  4. #44
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    The Florida I-95 check point rollout on Sunday was a major fail. They tried routing all traffic thru the visitors center. Traffic immediately backed up in excess of 2.5 hours and they had to stop. The goal was to question everyone but semi’s would get a immediate pass. Someone didn’t think it out and they ensnarled the trucks with the passenger vehicles. I understand Texas is now trying to stop people escaping New Orleans for Texas. Attempting to cross state lines in the near future could get ...mmmm interesting?? “Papers please, show me your papers.”

    Oshkosh has several pretty good sized music festivals scheduled for early and mid summer. One has already postponed the others are like EAA and are in the wait and see mode. Ron, I think you’re right. The fear is when the numbers start to turn down we slacken up our guard and then have to deal with a second wave. Personally I think we’re done for large gatherings for the year.
    Dave Shaw
    EAA 67180 Lifetime
    Learn to Build, Build to Fly, Fly for Fun

  5. #45

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    Good conversation. The graph is an attention getter, and is currently at 10k. Recall that the expected mortality value when this is over, according to the IHME analysis (see referenced web site) is about 81k, occuring early June. Thus, the graph is projected to continue to rise to about 8 times the current value. To a number that is about 20k greater than the 2017-2018 flu season (which was 61k). So, the rising numbers are expected, according to predictions, and are expected to be a bit more than typical flu mortality. Certainly a concern, but doesn’t scare me.

    In our life, we are always making decisions on “cost vs. risk”, such as how big to build a bridge. Bigger means safer, but will cost more. At some point, we decide, big enough, the remaining risk is something we need to live with. Even with our aircraft. And certainly with healthcare, even before pandemic. There is always a cost to reduce risk. How much can we afford at this time? Some are saying if we stay isolated through May (the time used in the models), our country will enter a depression, beyond the depths of the ‘30s (* Note: have not seen any predictive economic models with the degree of granularity of the COVID models, but am interested if anybody knows of some). And some are asking - what is the equivalent value of 100 points on the DJ Industrials, in terms of lost life? Difficult questions, but these questions and answers have been, and are, asked every day in policy making. Example is groundwater pollution where monetary values are put on each human life (currently about $1.5 million - google it), and remediation plans are designed according to expected (or de minimus) loss of life due to pollution exposure.

    We don’t live in a zero risk world, and monetary value of human life is used all the time to inform public policy. Not necessarily a pleasant thought, but reality, if we are to advance as a modern society.

    If the folks in Wisconsin roll up the welcome mat, and/or the models are incorrect, I’m fine with that and will not pursue this activity. It is beyond anything I can influence, and why I have additional contingency plans. Only time will tell, and until then, I’ll keep my calendar clear, my airplane ready, and be ready to launch for some fun times at either AV 2020, or some type of flying activity in the KOSH vicinity.

    Take care, be safe, and manage the risk,
    Wayne

  6. #46
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    [QUOTE=rwanttaja;81000]One of them was Arlington (Washington). An accident occurred, and EAA got named in the lawsuit (they were the deepest pocket). IIRC, the plaintiff was awarded $8M, though it was set aside on appeal. I believe this was one of the triggers for EAA to stop sponsoring the regional fly-ins.

    Ron Wanttaja[/QUOT That is precisely why the EAA is no longer affiliated with the Arlington fly in.
    ​" Good isn't cheap, and Cheap isn't good "

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by LUSCOMBE PHANTOM View Post
    That is precisely why the EAA is no longer affiliated with the Arlington fly in.
    And no longer affiliated with Sun N Fun, Copperstate, etc. The Arlington accident was the trigger, but EAA doesn't partner with anybody, anymore.

    Ron Wanttaja

  8. #48
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    Name:  DSC_2848 (2).jpg
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Size:  94.8 KBAs stated in the post's listed here, " Its best to stay home ". I attended OSHKOSH from 1989 to 2014 as a vendor at the seaplane base, so I have seen a lot of the weather and unexpected things that can happen at Wittman field and a variety of other places there in the Oshkosh area.

    Just to refresh everybody's memory about last year, the rain really made it a muddy mess to just be on the field. The one immutable fact about Oshkosh is this, the EAA and the city of Oshkosh are joined at the hip in perpetuity, one cant exist with out the other, its just that simple. There is no other airport in the United States for the EAA to move to, and there isn't another city with an airport and acreage like Oshkosh that will welcome the huge crowds that the annual Oshkosh gathering generates.

    Wittman field is clay and it doesn't drain very well when there is heavy torrential downfall, which happens often there.

    The idea that the EAA is trying to set up, to print an event dated 2020 OSHKOSH T-Shirt, even if the annual gathering is called off, noble gesture, but not anchored to common sense. If Norm Peterson was alive right now and in good health, his counsel on such matters would carry a lot of weight indeed, sadly folks of his ilk, and common sense, are far and few these days !

    No doubt the annual pilgrimage to OSHKOSH is something that myriads of people love to attend, but to do that this year, in hopes of regional gatherings or just a lot of people milling around the city of Oshkosh is a recipe for disaster, to get that 2020 patch or any other souvenir from the annual gathering, really, its just not worth the financial, or logistical, or health risk, to congregate at the annual Mecca of Aviation. IMHO.

    So take some time to really digest all of this and make the right decision to " STAY HOME " and practice good social distancing, its literally a matter of life and death!
    Last edited by LUSCOMBE PHANTOM; 04-06-2020 at 08:22 PM.
    ​" Good isn't cheap, and Cheap isn't good "

  9. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by LUSCOMBE PHANTOM View Post
    So take some time to really digest all of this and make the right decision to " STAY HOME " and practice good social distancing, its literally a matter of life and death!]
    First, I think the event will probably be cancelled.

    Second, the fat lady may be warming up, but she hasn't sung yet. I'll wait until she grabs the mic and announces a cancellation before I completely give up.

    Third. I'm tempted to buy a 2020 t-shirt either way.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle Boatright View Post
    First, I think the event will probably be cancelled.

    Second, the fat lady may be warming up, but she hasn't sung yet. I'll wait until she grabs the mic and announces a cancellation before I completely give up.

    Third. I'm tempted to buy a 2020 t-shirt either way.
    Roger/Wilco Boatright, I'm getting rid of a bunch of tee shirts anyway, so I need something to replace a couple with.
    Bob

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