Originally Posted by
DaleB
I'm not saying anyone can predict any of those things with absolute accuracy. However, to think that an entire industry with decades of statistical data can't (and doesn't) know what a safe allowance would be -- should they choose to make such an allowance -- is, in my humble opinion, more than a little naive. So here I was, thinking you had very skillfully managed to miss my point completely...
But you didn't. Bravo. I submit that an airline delivering even very marginally better service than its competitors would have absolutely no trouble filling every seat available. Even the "set aside" seats could be filled with standby flyers. The demand is there, if anyone would bother to provide the supply. There's just a very slightly narrower profit margin, and American companies tend to be bound and determine to never look past the next quarter's earnings statement -- even if it kills them (which it has, in the case of most airlines).
Let's look at this from another angle. Let us substitute, say, fuel, in place of seats. Let's say that in the pursuit of squeezing the last drop of snot out of the buffalo on the nickel, the airlines carefully calculate fuel down to the last pound, and as a result those "unpredictable" events result in fuel starvation and a the occasional airliner plunging into suburban neighborhoods a few miles short of their destination. Would we stand for that? Absolutely not. Would some airlines DO it, if the settlement numbers worked? Sad, but probably -- yes. But we don't have that problem, because the carriers have been forced to leave a considerable margin of safety so that we never have to worry about such a thing happening (the Gimli Glider notwithstanding). Well, the things that affect fuel burn and reserve are the same ones that affect scheduling and capacity... yet we are willing to accept routine failures in that regard? I submit that if the airlines wanted to (or were forced to by regulation) they could fix their capacity issues. They simply choose not to do so, because they can, and because most people get where they're going more-or-less when they're supposed to, so there isn't enough backlash to impact their bottom line.