Any Aviation Activity Increase?

[Bill Greenwood]

One thing I have noticed a lot this year is lots of help wanted ads and notices, just around larger towns. Companies like Target, many restaurants,gas stations, other places that serve the public. Even the local police put out a notice for hiring. These may not all be high paying jobs, but I wasnt seeing these kind of notices a couple of years ago.
Unemployment, no matter how you measure it, as long as your rmethod hasnt changed,, is certainly now better than at the bottom 6 years ago. Its officailly about 5%.
Is this carrying over to aviation? I am not sure, it seems to this casual observer that there is a market for ultra high end corp jets, but just looking at FBOs I am not sure I see more activity in general. I hear a fair number of training flights on the radio. Lower fuel prices are a nice bonus, and I dont see or hear as many complaints about fuel costs in the past.
If one uses attendance at sporting events like football or EAA, as somewhat related to gen economic activielty, likelhood of consumers to spend, then I think EAA was pretty well attended probably not a record and people seem to be going to games, at least the big ones.

But hey, dont get too giddy, bottle water is still $3 at EAA. What a major factor!

[1600vw]

It seems to me that GA traffic in the air above my airfield has increased. I have been here now a little over 4 years. In that time I would see a few airplanes fly over all summer long. This year we have air traffic almost daily flying over. I am speaking of traffic at 1000-3000'. Seems this air traffic has increased. It's nice to see.

Tony

[Floatsflyer]

But hey, dont get too giddy, bottle water is still $3 at EAA. What a major factor!

Don't go spreading falsehoods now. The cost of aviation is always sky high but water at Oshkosh is only $2, has been for a few years now.

[L16 Pilot]

We have a fair amount of aviation activity at our little airport. It's mostly local (fun) type flying. In the past years we've went from less than a dozen to around 35 members. Heck, we even built a new club house for us airport loafers. Community club effort as pretty much all of us helped. The flying club owns the airport property and leases the owners "foot print" at so much a square foot. Basically non-profit operation.

[martymayes]

Unemployment, no matter how you measure it, as long as your rmethod hasnt changed,, is certainly now better than at the bottom 6 years ago. Its officailly about 5%.

Maybe. If one wades through the voluminous data at the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the age group 25-54 (the age where one would normally hold a job) has seen an increase in the number of people who don't want to work and have not looked for a job in the past yr. I believe that's called "dropping out of the labor market" which causes an artificial decrease in unemployment. Perhaps not everyone aspires to a career at Target. Moving on to aviation.....

The FAA doesn't directly track number of hrs flown but they do have data from surveys and such. It looks like GA is still flat lined. More interesting is the FAA forecast for the next 15 yrs through 2036. GA shows only marginal growth overall while the piston fleet is forecast to decrease. LSA is the brightest category, expected to grow by a modest 5% (about .33% per yr?). LSA numbers are so small not sure if that is even statistically significant. Remaining Increases are the turbine and jet segment. Overall, the GA graph is fairly flat. The number of pilots will continue to shrink until 2026, at which point it will reverse and start to trend upward, in 2036 it should be back to 2006 levels. However, when you plot that against the US population growth, the percentage of people who are pilots will continue to decrease. Just think all those people will need a place to live and play soccer, hopefully that doesn't put too much pressure on airport real estate.

The most interesting aspect of FAA forecasting is the UAS segment where sevenfold growth is predicted. Those drone thingys are going to be swarming in the sky like turkey vultures at a fresh roadkill site. And it's the hobby segment where much of the growth will be. I suppose in the future, recreational aviation will consist of a UAS flight followed by uploading a video of the flight to youtube or facebook page. Doesn't that sound exciting?

[Dana]

I suppose in the future, recreational aviation will consist of a UAS flight followed by uploading a video of the flight to youtube or facebook page. Doesn't that sound exciting?

Future? Already it seems that half the aviation videos on youtube are recordings of flight simulator sessions.

[AB9NZ]

My thought is that powered paragliding may take off exponentially. I just took some lessons and it's incredibly fun. For me the thought of a brand new backpack bush plane for $8,000 dollars is very enticing.

[Dana]

My thought is that powered paragliding may take off exponentially.

It already did, 5-10 years ago I think it's been pretty steady since.

[martymayes]

My thought is that powered paragliding may take off exponentially. I just took some lessons and it's incredibly fun. For me the thought of a brand new backpack bush plane for $8,000 dollars is very enticing.

That's cool - How about a report on your experience? Where did you take your lessons?

[AB9NZ]

That's cool - How about a report on your experience? Where did you take your lessons?

Thanks for asking. I went to Discover Powered Paragliding near Quincy Illinois. They have a terrific operation at their little aerodrome. I received constant training from my instructors Matt and Mike. When it was too windy to be on the field we worked on the machines, watched training videos, and worked the syllabus. I spent a week there, soloed and did a bit of flying, but I still need to finish out. From the outside it looks kinda like that hang ten base jumping thrill seeker crap, and it certainly can be if you like that kind of stuff, but its also a super S.T.O.L. ship that you can put in the back of a compact car. There is a little two-smoke whine, but mostly you hear the prop chopping through the air like a P-51. Students I trained with included a fella from Australia, a 5,000 hour Pitts pilot, an expert parachutist, an army colonel, a business man and a computer genius. The hangar flying with the instructors and this great bunch of guys was just like the camaraderie of my Air Force basic training many years ago (I'm 55). All in all a very wonderful experience.
Oh, I should mention, with the PPG, especially as a beginner, you are limited to flying when the shadows are long and the air is calm. Hotter wings and lots of experience can broaden the flying conditions, but they still are fair weather machines.