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Thread: Help with survey for Master's thesis

  1. #11

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    Today, the biggest reason I don't fly more for recreation is $6.00/gal avgas. Lots of cheap, readily available airplanes to choose from, insurance is cheap, maintaining/storing/access is reasonable, the regulations are occasionally onerous but not always so (with the exception of preflight duties, it's still as easy to fly today as it was in the '70's and I think I can still fly a NORDO airplane across the country without too much hassle). If silly TFR's were deleted, that would relieve 75% of the stress.

    Before someone says auto fuel; (1) the plane I fly has other owners who are not interested in the the auto fuel option; (2) Auto fuel is not readily available at my home airport (i.e. there is no pump at the airport; handling fuel in jerry cans + the alcohol mandate kills the incentive); (3) The price of all fuel is squeezing my budget. Auto fuel where I live has surpassed the $4/gal threshold for the summer, so even a day of jet skiing at the lake has been cut back to 1/2 day.

    Now, I know not much I can do about the price of fuel other than fly airplanes that have small engines. And if fuel prices were cut in half, something else would become the single biggest expense and that would be my excuse for not flying more. So for now I'll just suck it up and fly when I can. I would still choose a Fly Baby over a Honda Gold Wing for my recreation, although the choice is getting harder to sustain.

  2. #12

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    Nov 2011
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    Many thanks to those of you that have completed the survey. I do understand that the survey has some shortcomings, but I have to keep the project manageable in order to complete my degree. All comments are appreciated, and some have me thinking about different ways that I can analyze the data.

    Again, thanks for your help.
    Ethan Jacoby
    San Antonio, TX
    RV-7
    Finish kit started...in need of an engine
    N714EJ reserved
    www.rv-7construction.com

  3. #13

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    I think I was alluding to limitations other than MOAs- although they are in some cases more prevalent. Why you focused on just that one factor is interesting.

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyhook View Post
    I think I was alluding to limitations other than MOAs- although they are in some cases more prevalent. Why you focused on just that one factor is interesting.
    What are those limitations? I was being specific instead of indulging in vague generalities. For my kind of flying, as I mentioned, its almost as easy today as it was when I was a student except for having to check for TFRs, and even that's not hard with the Internet. Today, I usually use flight following instead of filing an IFR or VFR flight plan. I think that is even easier That may not be true for your kind of flying. To me, the chief difference in the evolution of GA is cost, specifically the cost of fuel.
    Bill

  5. #15

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    Aug 2011
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    Happy

    Everyone can make excuses. If fuel costs were really the issue (in the US), we would have quit driving a long time ago. A very active for-pleasure pilot flies 100 hrs/year @ 8 gal/hr with the price of fuel $2/gal higher, equates to $1,600/year. I wouldn't give up flying for that ... flying allows me to do so much more than I can do driving or going commercially. The initial purchase price of a used airplane is less than most people pay for their cars/minivans/SUVs today. Something that does bother me, though, is the price of a new airplane. Why are OEMs only producing Lamborghinis when most of the airplanes being flown today are Chevy Impalas? Do we all need the glass, leather, FADECs, big engines, etc.? No one that I run around with can even dream about owning a new airplane. As an ERAU student, can you afford to buy the airplane that you are training in? Another item is that we (the pilot community) are only talking to ourselves. How can we grow if we only talk to those that are/were already flying? The Young Eagles program is a good program (for the older ones), and the new, EAA "Bald" Eagles program is even better. When is the last time we invited a friend to go flying with us? Or took another couple/person on a vacation or business trip? EAA and the pilot organizations are all getting older because we're not inviting the next generation to participate. My uncle inspired me, as I am sure this is true of most of the other people on this thread had someone introduce and encourage them. The benefits of flight are many; a main one being time ... something none of us can make more of.

  6. #16

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    Mar 2012
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    In no particular order:

    1. Cost. While old planes are not super expensive, new planes are a quarter to half a million dollars. So lets look at older planes. Yeah, you can buy one for about the cost of a nice new car. But now we also have to store it and feed it. The airports near my house want 700-900/month for a hangar. So my planes are parked 1.5 hours away from my house where the hangar rent is 250/mth. Now lets talk maintenance. I just paid 900 dollars for my annual on my Citabria since it needed plugs. My Pitts last annual was 2400 dollars. So paid 3300 dollars just to having flying planes and another 3000 to hangar them. So 6300 dollars without making a SINGLE flight. And I have a minor issue with my Citabria. I am going to have to pay a mechanic 75/hr to fix it when I could fix it in about an hour by myself.... But that's not legal, so 75/hr to fix a minor issue.

    Flight training costs. When I learned to fly the planes were 40/hour and the instructor 10-15/hr. Now while working on my inst rating the plane is 105/hr and the instructor 50/hr. AND they add a fuel surcharge to the 'wet rate'.
    40 hours at 50/hr = 2000 dollars
    40 hours at 150/hr = 6000 dollars

    And guess what? the plane is a 1970ish 150.... Just like the one I flew in 1993 when I got my license.

    2. The FAA. The regulations are insane. Someone mentioned where they live it has not changed all the time they have been flying. How many TFR's were there in 1970? The "next gen" transponders are going to cost some money as well.

    Lets not even touch on the medical issues the FAA pushes. I am a type II diabetic. I have over 6K skydives, cave SCUBA dive, deep wreck dive (200+ feet), fly aerobatics, and can drive a 4 ton truck on the interstate right next to you. I have to jump through so many hoops to be allowed to keep my medical. Things most general practitioners shake their head at when they hear about it.... Guess what, I had kidney stones once. The FAA mandated I have a cystoscopy procedure done... Look it up, not exactly fun. The worst part? Not a single Dr from the med examiner, to the Dr doing the procedure thought it was actually worth doing.... But I had to have it done or I would not get a medical. Also, the medication that my Dr suggested for me is not approved by the FAA. So I had fantastic A1C numbers, but I had to change to something else with worse results because the FAA will not bless off on the other drug.

    The FAA attitude? Well, it seems they ENJOY pulling someones ticket. I had a local FAA guy here that participates in another hobby with me (competitive shooting) BRAGGING about how he wrote up a student pilot for violating a TFR on a solo XC by METERS since the student didn't want to fly over the big ass lake. He even admitted that it was the smart thing to do, but STILL made the student do a 709 ride. He asked me why I don't hang out with him more..... Uh, hello! He bragged to me that when the FAA comes after you that you can take them to court, but he is PAID to be there and you are PAYING to be there.

    Oh how about this. A buddy had his prop OFF of his plane and an FAA guy came to the airport and tried to write him up for flying a non-airworthy plane.... His plane is from the 30's and they wanted to see the manuals and PMA numbers.... Huh? Same state, different airport an FAA guy comes out to a fly in and starts ramp checking peoples planes. He finds one that the registration is out and grounds the plane. Now, when you look online the FAA's very own website said the plane was in date, but somehow the FAA guy said it is out of date and therefore grounded. The FAA guy said that the owner would have to fill out a new registration and send it to him. So the guy filled one out and tried to HAND it to him and the FAA guy said it had to be MAILED to his office. So he was stranded and had to leave his plane till later in the week and come back and get it. There was an issue at Sun n fun where a guy had an RV that the N number was too small for the speed of the plane.... That right there made me scrap my plans to fly to Sun n Fun *EVER*. Sure, I think my plane is legal, but as Cardinal Richelieu is quoted as saying, "Qu’on me donne six lignes de la main du plus honnête homme, j’y trouverai de quoi le faire pendre (Show me six lines written by the most honest man in the world, and I will find enough therein to hang him). So why tempt fate?

    Now that I think about it.... I'd put dealing with the FAA as the number one PITA and cost second. I fly in the middle of nowhere not only for the cost savings, but also that it would be a XC to find a B/C/D airspace.

    I still fly because I love it.... But in a world filled with activities that people can enjoy, why are we surprised when people see flying as too expensive and too big of a hassle? Look at it like this, I have a 1974 Citabria and a 1986 Pitts. Lets say the Citabria is worth 35K and the Pitts 35K (I would not sell either at that price). So I have 70K dollars in planes. I have a buddy that bought a 2008 Maserati GranTurismo S for 60K. I have another buddy that has an amazing boat for 40K. Another buddy travels all over the world heli skiing and BASE jumping.... People find other ways to spend discretionary funds and with less hassle for most of these pursuits.
    1996 Quad City Challenger CWS w/503 - Sold
    1974 7ECA Citabria - Sold
    1986 Pitts S1S

  7. #17
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    ssmdive,

    Your rant made me laugh and cry, sometimes at the same time. But I gotta tell ya, your FAA guy anecdotes make me glad that I live and fly in Canada. I've been flying for 41 years, live in the biggest city in the country, fly out of one of the top 10 busiest GA airports in the country and I have never been ramp checked, never seen or been within a 2 foot radius of a Transport Canada guy/official at any airport, ever. From so many posters here over the years, it's quite clear that the FAA is Machiavellian intrusive. Transport Canada just doesn't appear to be going after us here as if they had quotas to fill. At least that's my experience.

  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by ssmdive View Post





    ... 2. The FAA. The regulations are insane. Someone mentioned where they live it has not changed all the time they have been flying. How many TFR's were there in 1970? ...
    How many TFRs were there in the 70s: zero. How many TFRs are there in the entire state of Arizona right now: zero. Effective difference on my flying today: zero.

    When we do have TFRs here in AZ, they're generally for forest fires or somebody flying a drone around. I really want to know about, and avoid either of them.
    Bill

  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill View Post
    How many TFRs were there in the 70s: zero. How many TFRs are there in the entire state of Arizona right now: zero. Effective difference on my flying today: zero.

    When we do have TFRs here in AZ, they're generally for forest fires or somebody flying a drone around. I really want to know about, and avoid either of them.
    TFRs in FL in the 70's: ZERO
    TRF's in FL today: Three

    TRF's in the US in 1970: Zero
    TFR's i the US today: Fifty four.

    Personal anecdote != Data.
    So while it may not personally affect you, it does affect others. Six dollar gas does not really affect me, but that does not mean I can't see how it can impact others.
    1996 Quad City Challenger CWS w/503 - Sold
    1974 7ECA Citabria - Sold
    1986 Pitts S1S

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by ssmdive View Post
    TFRs in FL in the 70's: ZERO
    TRF's in FL today: Three

    TRF's in the US in 1970: Zero
    TFR's i the US today: Fifty four.

    Personal anecdote != Data.
    So while it may not personally affect you, it does affect others. Six dollar gas does not really affect me, but that does not mean I can't see how it can impact others.
    Lets look at the data for Florida just to keep it manageable. First of all, there is only one TFR in effect today, that's the Orlando TFR for Disney World, which has a radius of 3.45 statute miles up to a height of 3000 ft. AGL and will probably be there until Disney World crumbles or people come to their senses. I don't know which happens first. So the aeronautical volume of the Orland TFR is pi*3.45^2*0.284 = 131.6 cubic statute miles. The area of Florida is 65,760 square miles give or take a little bit depending on the tides. Up to an altitude of 10,500 ft AGL, the volume of Florida airspace is about 131,520 cubic statute miles, so a simple estimate of the likelihood of encountering a TFR in Florida today is the ratio of the volumes of the TFR and Florida airspace or 131.6 / 131,520 = 0.001, which a tenth of a percent, which isn't much.

    The other two Florida TFRs you alluded to are for Kennedy Space Center. One, on June 20th, is effective for less than two hours. The other, on June 21st, is also effective for less than two hours. Those TFR is almost entirely over the ocean, so they will have little effect on the volume of TFR airspace over Florida airspace and be approximately the same percentage.

    The right way to estimate the effect, of course, is to do a Monte Carlo simulation of flights in the Florida airspace below 10,500 ft., or what ever altitude you choose and see what percentage of the simulated flights pass through the TFRs. I'd even let you pick the probability density functions to be used in the simulation. Back in the days when I was designing fighters, that what we did to learn the truth about performance, or the best estimate to the truth, and it didn't always turn out as we expected.

    What I've learned from these discussions is that some people aren't happy until they're unhappy. If a ten of a percent chance of encountering a TFR impedes your fly, then just do the same calculation for the Florida weather and see what you get. The problem with these sort red herrings is that they distract us from the real problems and their solutions.
    Bill

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