What really "killed" General Aviation

[rawheels]

"Darned Interstates."

Our minds went back in time to when the Champ was new - 1946 - when it would have been a godsend for anyone trying to get from Point A to Point B as quickly and trouble free as possible. There were no Interstates. State and County roads that linked towns in a web were all there was, and most were two lanes.

Joining this conversation late. I've been watching the Alaska Flying shows the last couple of seasons, and every time I think the same thing; if they'd just put in an interstate highway system up there, most of the flying would stop. If you watch the various shows, a lot of the flying is to take people to medical care, shipping basic supplies, or even just a school sports team going to an event. An interstate system would end all of that, and the only flying left would be to the remotest towns or back country strips (kind of like the lower 48 now).

[rawheels]

When I learnt to fly it was about a 15 min drive from home to the airfield, now the closest aerodrome for me to get to now is 40 mins away with the next two after that and hour and an hour half drive respectively.. My cars just outside. The nearest available hangerage I could get for my aircraft when I owned it was 2 hrs drive each way. Even with the greatest passion in the world after a few yrs of aircraft ownership the 4 hrs of driving I had to do for maybe and hr or so of actual flying just became too much of a chore. If I'd forgotton to take something in the car that I'd needed then the entire day was a total loss.

IMO, the biggest threat to this now is all of the aircraft manufacturers who are promoting wing-fold aircraft that you keep at home and trailer to the airport. Most pilots seem to think this is a good idea because it reduces the monthly expenses, but most small airports don't get federal or local goverment money to stay alive. Without hangar rentals, a lot of airports won't stay open (and certainly won't have resources to fend off that new housing additon off the end of the runway). At that point we'll all be complaining about traveling hours to our nearest airport.

[Ron Blum]

I've been watching the Alaska Flying shows the last couple of seasons, and every time I think the same thing; if they'd just put in an interstate highway system up there, most of the flying would stop.

Those shows are really good. There aren't roads for a reason (besides that fact that cars have a really hard time when it's that cold out. Airplanes there are used for essential transportation of people and goods.

Henry Ford changed the automobile industry by removing luxury, adding the production line, and eliminating the "cars are only for the rich" attitude. In business this has been called Blue Ocean Strategy. Could/Would this same philosophy work in the aviation industry?

[SKOTT]

if they'd just put in an interstate highway system up there,

Since interstate highways go from one state to another, what state would you propose to make the first connection?

[Frank Giger]

We'll connect it to Interstate Highway H1. You know, the one in Hawaii!

Henry Ford changed the automobile industry by removing luxury, adding the production line, and eliminating the "cars are only for the rich" attitude. In business this has been called Blue Ocean Strategy. Could/Would this same philosophy work in the aviation industry?

Short answer:

No.

Long answer:

It comes down to the skill required to fly and the limitations on flight.

While I'm not over-awed by the skill set required to fly an aircraft (just about anyone can learn the mechanics of basic flight), where it gets really tricky is the ancilliary thought processes and skills one has to master.

And that's all the difference.

When one learns to drive a car it's all about mechanics. Rules for driving are simple and straight forward - there are roads that define left and right travel of the car and an overabundance of signs detailing everything from which road one is on, safe travelling speed, when to stop, turn, ad nauseum. There is precisely one adjustment to make in inclement weather or bad road conditions - slow down. Even the basic skill of navigating from a map that details roads that never move has been increasingly lost due to the popularity of GPS on the dash.

Flying an aircraft is twenty percent mechanics and eighty percent situational awareness and adjusting for conditions. Simply landing in VFR conditions consists of a possible seven factors (wind down runway, left or right crosswind, which end of the runway, crab and slip*) at an uncontrolled airfield, assuming one doesn't throw straight in approaches. That's forty-nine variations, if I'm remembering basic math properly!

Anyone can be taught to put in a little more power on landing with a sentence. Knowing when to do so and why is paragraphs and, in my case when I got my first taste of honest-by-jimney crosswinds, an additional two hours of hands-on instruction.

Throw in weather, pre- and post- flight, self-medical evaluation, etc., and it's not just an initial investment in learning, it's a continuous one; this makes it much more difficult than driving. Drive to the Walmart once and you've driven it a thousand times. Every trip to an airport, even one's home field, is different each time.

* Yes, I know that every crab ends in a slip, but not every crosswind slip involves a crab...

[Jim Hann]

Joining this conversation late. I've been watching the Alaska Flying shows the last couple of seasons, and every time I think the same thing; if they'd just put in an interstate highway system up there, most of the flying would stop. If you watch the various shows, a lot of the flying is to take people to medical care, shipping basic supplies, or even just a school sports team going to an event. An interstate system would end all of that, and the only flying left would be to the remotest towns or back country strips (kind of like the lower 48 now).

rawheels, take a look at this map from an Alaska history site and I think you might understand one of the many reasons why a road system is not feasible for interior Alaska.

The distances are huge, not to mention the water that needs to be crossed that isn't visible in this drawing. Alaska has a population that is numerically between North Dakota and South Dakota. It is the least densely populated state in the union less than one quarter of the density of Wyoming.

The challenges of constructing roads on the permafrost are well known, but not cheap to conquer either which drives up the costs. Building a road to Nome has been talked about for years, http://www.adn.com/2011/02/13/170110...d-to-nome.html, but look at the cost... $3 billion. That is around $5.4 million a mile. You can build a lot of airports for that, or subsidize fuel, or a lot of things!

Unless the denizens of the lower 48 want to send a lot more tax money up North, it is cheaper to build airports and fly than it is to build a highway system.

[rawheels]

take a look at this map from an Alaska history site and I think you might understand one of the many reasons why a road system is not feasible for interior Alaska.

I wasn't really saying that I wanted to kill aviation in Alaska by adding an interstate/highway. I was just trying to make the point that Frank's opinion that the interstate killed general aviation was valid, because we can see from those shows where aviation is used quite extensively because of the lack of roads.

Just for reference; Alaska, Hawaii, & Puerto Rico all receive Interstate Highway Funds even though they don't connect to other states. They just don't have to maintain the same standards as the other states.(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/routefinder/#s06).

[Ron Blum]

Short answer:
No.

Long answer:
It comes down to the skill required to fly and the limitations on flight.

Respectfully, I would like to point out a couple items to contemplate (I think this has been called "leading the witness"). Less than 1% of the population is a rated pilot. Being a little egotistical (as most pilots are), let's put their intelligence and abilities in the top 50% of the population (I have regretfully flown with several pilots that disproves that last statement). With that said there is an additional 49% of the population that is not a pilot for reasons other than intelligence and abilities. Even if the pilot population only increased by 5 fold, think of the number of airplanes that we would need to build!

Blue Ocean Strategy is not about competing for the existing market; it is about expanding the market. Remember when computers filled rooms and were very expensive ... and made for geeks? Now everybody has one ... or two ... or

Thanks for reading this. This forum is great. We all realize something needs to happen.

[Joe LaMantia]

Ron,

Something is happening! We got our 200 year wish for "free trade" and the resulting "benefits" include the millions of jobs being outsourced. User fees have been advocated by the airlines worldwide, and yet we "lag" behind the rest of the world in their implementation. We have a political "system" bought and paid for by big money. We see an ever increasing move toward "consolidations" in most of our economic sectors. Today American Airlines is in "bankruptcy" while sitting on $100 million, waiting for United-Continental", Delta, or US Air to make an offer. The Supreme Court has ruled that money is free speech and corporations are "people" the result is now being played out in the 2012 campaign. The result of the next election will not "change" what goes on in Washington, "grid-lock" is exactly what benefits all those "interests" that like things just as they stand. Hopefully, we will avoid user fees, but my guess is that getting the "Next Gen" system funded for the long term won't pass without them.

Enough of my ranting, with all this going on the decline in the GA pilot population is really not a big deal.

Joe

[Stan]

Everyone knows that the automobile will eventually become obsolete for primary transportation, the only question is when. It is my contention that the aircraft is the obvious replacement for the automobile.
The major issue is affordability. My VTOL aircraft described earlier in this thread is an example of the aircraft that will eventually replace the auto. The auto was unaffordable until it was mass produced. I contend that if my aircraft or a similar design can be mass produced to make it affordable, it will become the new form of primary transportation.