What really "killed" General Aviation

[Stan]

The only reason that the automobile was successful was that mass production made it affordable. The mass produced auto made the horse and carriage obsolete as the primary mode of transportation.
The same is true for the airplane. Airplanes are not affordable because they are not mass produced. The mass produced affordable airplane described below will eventually make the auto obsolete and eliminate the predicted global gridlock of ground vehicles.

I have a patent on a new transportation vehicle that is designed to run on natural gas or any other bio-fuel at several hundred miles per hour at a lower cost per mile than the Prius. Bill Ford, CEO of Ford Motor Company, stated recently that personal transportation will become limited, not by the price of fuel or CO2 emissions, but by congestion (http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_ford_a..._gridlock.html). We will rapidly approach a point where traffic simply stands still, and that will limit our personal movement.
The Verticraft is the ultimate transportation vehicle of the future. It has maximum speed and safety at minimum cost. Very high speed on the ground is very dangerous, while very high speed in the air is desirable and very safe. On the ground, vehicles are separated horizontally by a few feet with zero vertical separation. In the air Verticraft will be separated by hundreds or thousands of feet horizontally and by hundreds or thousands of feet vertically, making air travel thousands of times safer than driving. Residents of low-density, residential-only sprawling communities are also more likely to die in car collisions which kill 1.2 million people worldwide each year, and injure about forty times this number. The incredibly large costs involved in having to build roads and bridges to desired destinations and the destruction of the environment caused by those roads would be eliminated. The vehicle is designed to run on LNG or any bio-fuel to minimize emissions. A ballistic recovery parachute allows the Verticraft to make a normal landing in the unlikely event of multiple engine failure, because it is a vertical takeoff and landing vehicle. If anyone does not believe that electronic collision avoidance systems work, check the accident record. Before collision avoidance systems were perfected and then made mandatory there was a tragic series of collisions involving airliners. Since the electronic systems went on watch there hasn’t been a midair involving an airline jet. It is a little known fact that the public has been flying on an automated airline flight system for years. Only three minutes of the average airline flight is not operated on autopilot.
The aircraft would be totally automated. Each property owner would enter their address and each 12 'circular parking spot number into the FAA's NextGen transportation system using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) system. The desired address and spot number would be entered into the Flight Management Computer. The FMC would reject any flight path that would have a traffic or weather or spot occupied conflict. The aircraft would all have TCAS ( traffic collision avoidance systems) connected to the autopilots that would take evasive maneuvers automatically just as the current airlines have TCAS warnings for the pilots to take manual evasive maneuvers. This system would automatically be activated by ambulance, police, or fire vehicles which have priority. The response time and efficiency of emergency vehicles would be greatly enhanced. If a spot at your desired destination is unavailable the nearest spot available would show on the cockpit display screen along with the nearest spot available to your current location at all times. At major airports the airline flights would operate in their normal flight corridors while inbound passengers would fly in unobstructed routes to their parking spots available near or on the terminal building. Passengers that live nearby could send their aircraft home as UAV's to free up parking spots. Rental aircraft would be available to international airline passengers. This would minimize the current causes of fatalities from automobiles such as falling asleep, alcohol, drugs, texting, many other distractions and last but not least, incompetence. Air taxi vehicles would be available for the people concerned about automated flying. The aircraft could be flown manually in low density airspace just as they are currently and still have the TCAS available to maximize safety as a backup to visual flight. The automated air transportation system would be used for transportation to the edges of high population areas where only mass transit vehicles are allowed. A good example is Disney World's transportation system.
The initial market would be the 600,000 licensed pilots in the USA along with the estimated 400,000 foreign pilots. I would like to discuss a joint venture to mass produce the Verticraft to replace the current fleet of cars, trucks and aircraft and eventually eliminate global gridlock and dependence on foreign energy sources.
Sincerely,
Stanley G. Sanders II, President Verticraft LLC.
email- j2sande@yahoo.com
phone- 239-248-0747

[Frank Giger]

Stan, please don't copy and paste from your other thread, okay?

[Stan]

I was answering your question about what killed general aviation. Affordability is the answer and mass production is the solution. The auto is obsolete but its replacement can only be successful if it is mass produced just as Henry Ford proved in 1914. Mass production of aircraft for primary transportation outside of high density population centers is the best way to prevent global gridlock that is ironically discussed by Henry Ford's great grandson (http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_ford_a..._gridlock.html.

[Kyle Boatright]

Frank, I've had the exact same thought - the interstate system combined with reliable cars has killed GA's utility on < 300 mile trips. By the time I drive to the airport, preflight, load the airplane, fly to the destination, unload, then pick up a rental car, the time savings vs driving are essentially gone. Add in the fact that GA is a lot less reliable than a modern auto (due to weather, mechanical reliability, etc), and the car is a better transportation solution.

[spungey]

It's not just the interstate. In the last 50 years the safety, comfort, and mileage have all doubled. In 1961 my family car (my dad's rather) was a noisy station wagon that got 12 mpg. Today my family car is a reasonably quiet suv (aka "station wagon") that gets 20 mpg. At the same time, Cessnas and pipers have not changed at all. They are still noisy and get 12 mpg. Today airports are fenced off too.

The interstate highway system just made the choice to not fly easier.

[Ylinen]

Your premise that Cost of GA has remained constant is flawed. Attached are two charts that show it has grown far faster than inflation and the cost of automobiles.

There are 4 factors that has killed GA:
1. Cost. This is made more challenging because the economies of scale are not working in this industry. When you only sell less than 600 GA (non-jet) aircraft a year and only have 30,000 active aircraft in the US active; you are going to have a very expensive ecosystem.
2. Tort and Liability: The summary awards agains GA industry has caused the premiums for GA businesses to approach 50% of the costs. Each component has to factor their tort cost in to their products and services. They have to apply their fixed cost to each unit sold. This makes for very expensive units.
3. Government regulation. It is intersting to compare the Boating industry to the GA industry. One is regulated at the federal level by the USCG; the other by the FAA. The FAA applies the same methology and oversight to GA that they do to Commerical aircraft and airlines. Notice the USCG does not. If the boating industry; which kills 6x more people every year than GA were regulated like GA; it would die also.
4. The press has sensationalized all the tragedies of GA and has scared the public. This has impacted insurance companies as well. There are very few major companies that will allow their employees to use their personal aircraft like they do person automobiles. If that one factor were change; it could go a long way in reviving GA as many individuals would use a GA aircraft to do their jobs rather than airlines. And that is why it will never happen, because the airlines have had a systematic approach to killing the charter and personal aircraft business for 50 years.

I think GA has a strong case of instituational descrimation and will require protection to survive now. The economies of scale are now killing it. Cost of fuel is going up, cost of products and services keep going up. Only Corporations will be able to use GA as it still can be a business deduction. Most individuals will not be able to use it in the future.

[Frank Giger]

I think your charts aren't comparing apples the way I am, and actually prove my point when we agree to terms.

It's not that your points aren't valid, it's just that I did a poor job of articulating my idea of General Aviation (which is a pretty broad area to talk about).

I was thinking in terms of Joe Six Pack (and Guy Glass Panel) and his bog standard single reciprocating engine, fixed gear four seat airplane. Let's take the Cessna 172 and its new replacement, the Skyhawk.

A new car runs about 40-50K. Oddly enough, one can buy a elder 172 (or similar) in good condition for about that as well.

A new house runs about 200-300K.* How much is a new Skyhawk? 275K, according to the Cessna website.

I think the chart you provided with the 450K average for a GA aircraft has some turbos and upper end stuff messing up the averages.

Now I'm with you on saying aviation is expensive. But aviation has always been expensive.

Where we'll find common ground really quickly in regards to insurance and tort mucking things up is rentals. 130 bucks an hour wet for a C172? Really? Wow. Heck, the Champ I rent is 110 an hour. Why so much? Insurance on a taildragger is crazy high - the owner (who I trust) says he has to rent it for 100 hours a year to just break even.

The dirty secret is that he could charge more and get it, as he's about the only guy with a rentable tail dragger in the state.

The other cost that's gone up is training. Forget the days of being a hangar sweeper and plane washer in trade for lessons; we live in an era where young men are viewed with the suspicion that they're just looking to steal by pilots and as terrorists by the authorities. Both are overhyped, IMHO.

I kept pretty close records on how much my Sport Pilot license cost. Soup to peanuts, from gas to and from the airport, books, EAA and AOPA membership, written test, 28 hours of flight time with a fantastic CFI in a rented CTLS and check ride cost me $5,280. That's a chunk of change, and thankfully I did my research and had come up with a financial plan on how to cover it before my first lesson. Throw on top of it another 1100 for taildragger training and it shows that one really has to want to be a pilot in order to be a pilot (at least for someone of moderate means).

And this comes back to my original point - that thanks to a great Interstate system and cheap commercial fares, there really is no compelling need for the average Joe to fly himself anywhere.

If we could wave a magic wand and cut the cost of flying by half it still wouldn't compete with the highway system for convenience and cost.

* House price based on the flying demographic, which trends more affluent than the median average American. Me, I'm an outlier - we could trade our house for a Skycatcher.

[Stan]

Your premise that Cost of GA has remained constant is flawed. Attached are two charts that show it has grown far faster than inflation and the cost of automobiles.

There are 4 factors that has killed GA:
1. Cost. This is made more challenging because the economies of scale are not working in this industry. When you only sell less than 600 GA (non-jet) aircraft a year and only have 30,000 active aircraft in the US active; you are going to have a very expensive ecosystem.
2. Tort and Liability: The summary awards agains GA industry has caused the premiums for GA businesses to approach 50% of the costs. Each component has to factor their tort cost in to their products and services. They have to apply their fixed cost to each unit sold. This makes for very expensive units.
3. Government regulation. It is intersting to compare the Boating industry to the GA industry. One is regulated at the federal level by the USCG; the other by the FAA. The FAA applies the same methology and oversight to GA that they do to Commerical aircraft and airlines. Notice the USCG does not. If the boating industry; which kills 6x more people every year than GA were regulated like GA; it would die also.
4. The press has sensationalized all the tragedies of GA and has scared the public. This has impacted insurance companies as well. There are very few major companies that will allow their employees to use their personal aircraft like they do person automobiles. If that one factor were change; it could go a long way in reviving GA as many individuals would use a GA aircraft to do their jobs rather than airlines. And that is why it will never happen, because the airlines have had a systematic approach to killing the charter and personal aircraft business for 50 years.

I think GA has a strong case of instituational descrimation and will require protection to survive now. The economies of scale are now killing it. Cost of fuel is going up, cost of products and services keep going up. Only Corporations will be able to use GA as it still can be a business deduction. Most individuals will not be able to use it in the future.

You make very good points on the challenges of future air transportation. It will be a slow transformation as ground transportation gridlock and cost of infrastructure repair will force a transition to air travel as the solution to complement the mass transportation required in high density population areas.
I am in contact with the DOT about mass production of my Verticraft as part of the future of transportation. Tort reform and excessive regulations as well as reducing air pollution and eliminating our dependence
on foreign energy sources will be discussed.

[Dana]

Good point about the Interstates, never thought about that before. It's not always true, though... when I bought my first plane (a 1941 T-Craft, in the mid 1980s), I did a lot of weekend trips from my home on the Jersey shore to my parents in upstate NY... 2.5 hours by car (yes, on the interstate) if there was no traffic, or 1.5 hours by air (not counting the 20 minute drive to the airport at each end). Of course I had to be careful about weather for the return trip, but for a 2 day weekend I never got stuck.

Interestingly, when the Interstates were built, there were serious proposals to use the machinery already on site to lay down airstrips every 100 miles or so along the highway, perhaps at rest areas... think of all the nice little airports we would have today, convenient to ground transportation, if that had happened!

[Ron Blum]

IMHO, airplanes were never designed to be recreational toys to play around in. Heck, even the trade names for the Cessna 180/185/190/195s were "Businessliners". And for good reason; they were designed to make the world smaller (and the potential radius of a business larger).

It all depends on your mission ... and you have to make it sure it makes sense (and cents). For me, Wichita to KC is best driven ... most times. Wichita to Chicago is a coin toss depending on the payload, time at destination and etc. Wichita to Russell, KS to KC Downtown in a weekend is hands down an airplane mission. My airport is in the backyard. The cars and airplane (C172) are in the same building ... the garage. (BTW, my house cost is the same as all the other houses in the area ... not all residential airparks are luxurious).

Cars in the early 1900s were luxuries but have now become commonplace. Why shouldn't airplanes do the same? Most people use their cars for transportation (boring), but some do it for the romance (look at all the great custom car shows!). Why can't airplanes do the same? -Ron