Bad weekend for RV's

[gbrasch]

3 FAA reports in over the weekend, from a minor incident to a double fatality, I listed here: http://forums.rvairspace.com/?forum=227220

What the heck is going on?

[WLIU]

Spring has finally arrived. After a winter that kept a lot of folks grounded, you will unfortunately see a spike in accidents when the weather breaks and people start flying again. And the economy these days limits a lot of folks flying. All of which adds up to a deficiency in currency at this time of the year. And I will note that the harsh winter has hit the southern US as much as the northern states.

NTSB data says that there were something like 50 accidents in March in the US. None are RV's. In Feb 43 accidents, 2 are RV's. Not bad in the overall scheme of things.

Best of luck,

Wes

[Tom Charpentier]

We see RVs in the accident numbers about as much as any other popular homebuilt type when taken as a percentage of active aircraft (or any other activity metric). As the most popular homebuilt family ever built, you naturally see them more in terms of raw data.

We track fatal accidents in the experimental category each month, which is a grisly metric but it's most impactful one for the safety of GA. After a very quiet winter there has been a spike since mid February (no fatals November to Feb 16, 14 since). I'd like to say there's a trend we can point to for sure but last year it was a relatively smooth curve throughout the winter. Regardless, Wes is absolutely right - flying is a perishable skill. If you haven't been up in awhile, maybe it's a good idea to take your CFI around the patch a few times.

[rwanttaja]

Here's a plot of the number of accidents per month, for the past 15 years or so. The RV statistics pretty much parallel the overall homebuilt fleet. Note the uptick in April...the return of better flying weather, I'd say...

Ron Wanttaja

[1600vw]

Ron do you break this down for each manufacturer? I only ask since you do show the RV line, what about Min-max, Fisher, Ran's......ect? What about tail wheel verses nose wheel? Low wing verses high wing?

I am speaking of HomeBuilts. To say experimental is just to broad stroke with a brush.

Tony

[rwanttaja]

Ron do you break this down for each manufacturer? I only ask since you do show the RV line, what about Min-max, Fisher, Ran's......ect? What about tail wheel verses nose wheel? Low wing verses high wing?

The problem with comparing numbers between types is that the total number of other models of homebuilts is so much lower. About 20% of US homebuilts are RVs; no other homebuilt type gets even close. This means the total number of accidents is lower, too, which affects the precision available.

Over my 15-year database, there are an average of 27 RV accidents per year. For Lancairs, it's less than ten. So you don't even get an average of one accident per month per year.

I've attached a PDF table showing some common homebuilt results.

My database includes landing gear type, but not wing position. I've used both parameters in other analyses, but don't think they'd make a difference in a monthly breakdown.

I am speaking of HomeBuilts. To say experimental is just to broad stroke with a brush.

About 42,000 total Experimental in the FAA registry, of which about 28,000 are Amateur-Built.

Ron Wanttaja

[Hiperbiper]

Might it be that us Southern pilots do a good job all year long and you Yankees go and mess up the curve after chipping the ice off the lock on the hangar door every April???

We need us a new graph ya'll...

Chris

[rwanttaja]

Might it be that us Southern pilots do a good job all year long and you Yankees go and mess up the curve after chipping the ice off the lock on the hangar door every April???

We need us a new graph ya'll...

Ah reckon....


Still a rise in March/April, but no big jump in the summer. Florida gets a big jump in April...31 accidents in March, 48 in April, and back to 19 in May. All them carpetbaggers coming south for Sun-N-Fun?

Yet April in Georgia sees the fewest accidents...seems as if it were driven by SnF, we'd see higher accidents in the (cough) flyover states. April in Louisiana is the month with the highest number of accidents, yet April in Alabama and Mississippi don't stand out.

Wisconsin is pretty flat in April, but jumps from 8 in June to 22 in July (and 16 in August).

Ron Wanttaja

[Puertoricoflyer]

3 FAA reports in over the weekend, from a minor incident to a double fatality, I listed here: http://forums.rvairspace.com/?forum=227220

What the heck is going on?

They were flying.
For the past many years the most common cause of airplane accidents, regardless of aircraft, has been pilot error. At this point the only way to eliminate this is to prohibit humans from flying an aircraft while the only way to eliminate all aircraft accidents is to prohibit all forms of man made flying.


Until then we have to accept the fact that there are risks in life and flying is a big part of our lives.
As a point of interest, there have also been 10 GA certificated airplane crashes resulting in 15 casualties during the past few weeks, that I know of.
2 Bonanzas - 2 casualties
1 Cherokee - 2 casualties
1 Seminole - 2 casualties
1 TBM - 2 casualties
2 Corvalis' - 4 casualties
1 Malibu - 1 casualties
1 C172 - 1 casualty
1 C180 - 1 casualty
(Source: AOPA RedBoard - Never Again)