AOPA Webpage fatal accident study

[WLIU]

I will speak up as someone who has spent a thousand or so hours driving under-equipped light aircraft around in crappy weather amongst tall rocks. The first rule I learned was to expect that the weather forecast was just a guess and the winds and ceiling will, not may, be different. And expect Mother Nature to throw you a curve ball on a regular basis. Where you really need to know the weather, there will not be a reporting station. So always launch with a backup plan and a hard limit of what weather will trigger going to plan B.

The second rule I learned was that when it was time to go to plan B, do it. You never every "gotta" get home today. The folks at a thousand small airports offer great sympathy and hospitality to wayward aviators. You meet wonderful people at unscheduled stops.

Then I learned that I do not have to fly a straight line to get to my destination. Some days, running 100 miles in a different direction from my desired course line will allow me to get where I want to go rather than flying up to some bad weather and sitting stuck while a big glob of low ceilings takes its time moving overhead.

Finally, the best decision making is done before you crank up and start taxiing. Know before your wheels leave the ground that it is OK to launch to look at the weather but decide before the throttle goes forward how just far you will go to look at the weather. Plan where you will go as soon as the weather gets worse than a limit you have set for yourself.

If you can make yourself think about the enroute weather, make a plan, make a backup plan, and then make yourself follow the plans, you can work your way home through surprisingly challenging weather. But only if you understand that its a step-by-step process and that process does not guarantee that at the end of that day you will be at your destination airport. If you are flying an VFR airplane and absolutely have to get somewhere, drive or buy an airline ticket.

In my small airplane travels, I have managed to cajole Mother Nature into letting me fly small airplanes with no equipment from Boston to San Francisco and from Montreal to Galveston. But Mother Nature is ruthless, gives the test before the lesson about it, and should always be viewed with a little paranoia as you study at her College of Aeronautical Knowledge.

The only way to build experience is to fly. Don't fly the same one flight 1000 times. Fly 1000 different flights and build your knowledge one bit at a time.

Merry Christmas,

Wes
N78PS

[steveinindy]

What people are loosing here is this...I am Not talking about going around the patch or flying 30 miles with a passenger. This is about a few hundred mile trip as a low time pilot.

While there are more points to check out the weather for in the longer flight, but if you can't do the work for it, you have zero business leaving the ground as a solo student. As I said, the issue is not one of knowledge or skill being dependably predictable by total time. Anyone turned loose for their checkride- hell, for their solo training- should know how to plan any flight within the range of their aircraft.

Just me..You do what you want.

That's your prerogative. However, as someone else pointed out, you are letting fear dictate your activities where reason should reign.

I had a woman whom found out I fly want to go for a ride...the very first thing she asked was...How many hrs I have flown....I told her do not worry about it..I fly no one but me.
She said..My dad was a pilot, he told me do not climb in any airplane if the pilot has under 300 hrs. So I am not the only one whom thinks this way.

I had a racist grandmother who swore she would never ride in a car or bus driven by a black man because (in her misguided opinion) they were not smart enough or trustworthy enough to handle a vehicle in which she was riding. The point of this story is that "traditional" thinking is not necessarily correct. There are plenty of other examples of this in aviation alone.

I just get so upset or emotional when I read articles like the one that draws us all here.

I hate to say this but if you get that emotionally perturbed by a simple discussion of a crash, I must question how you would respond as a pilot to an emergency. That is not something that more time is going to cure. It's a matter of the mental makeup of a person for the most part.

This low time pilot with his kids on board and someone elses child..we know the rest..

Given the mistakes he made, it probably would not have mattered if he had 200 hours or 20,000 hours. Stupidity seldom gets better with time. In fact, in some ways, it gets worse as people become more confident in making the same asinine mistakes with an ever increasing level of confidence.

So say what you want, its in black and white and the NTSB website is full of pilots just like this man.

It is also full of 10,000 hour pilots who made the same poor choices. As I said, you need to check the fear and recognize that anecdotal evidence is not conclusive.

[Hiperbiper]

Maybe BFR's that consist less of honing the skillz your PPL "thinks" he has and a bit more of a reality check would work...
Rent a plane that Is IFR capable and pull him into the clouds. No foggles. REAL. Climbs. Decents. A 180* get the hell out turn. As he loses control for the third time admonish him that he and any friends or loved ones he had been flying with would be dead due to HIS ego.
Some people need to have the holy crap scared out of 'em to convince them they're not as smart as they think they are.

My wife of a few months was a smoker. She developed pneumonia and didn't tell me. I came home to find her in the pyramid position in bed and gasping for breath. To the ER we went. Long story short; the docs told her that if she kept smoking she would most likely end her days feeling that same way she did that day in bed; unable to draw a breath no matter how much she tried.
She never smoked another cigerette. Ever. No patch, No support Group. Simply Scared Straight.

When you pass your FAA PPL you need to display a modicum of IR capability (climb. dive. recovery) but in the back of your mind you know you won't be allowed to die. For some people this doesn't equate to a future danger.

If I were re-writing the FAR's i would make sure EVERY student got REAL IFR exposure for a couple of hours. Foggles are a video game. Real IMC not so much.


Chris

Besides; look how many training flights could occur...after all, when going after a PPL the weather is crappy 1/2 the time...

[steveinindy]

Maybe BFR's that consist less of honing the skillz your PPL "thinks" he has and a bit more of a reality check would work...
Rent a plane that Is IFR capable and pull him into the clouds. No foggles. REAL. Climbs. Decents. A 180* get the hell out turn. As he loses control for the third time admonish him that he and any friends or loved ones he had been flying with would be dead due to HIS ego.
Some people need to have the holy crap scared out of 'em to convince them they're not as smart as they think they are.

Darn straight.

If I were re-writing the FAR's i would make sure EVERY student got REAL IFR exposure for a couple of hours. Foggles are a video game. Real IMC not so much.

I couldn't agree more. I had something like 25 hours of real IMC time prior to Dave (my last CFI) and I coming to realization that I probably should go ahead and solo. I enjoyed his company while flying so much that it became less about "punching the clock and checking off the boxes" and more of a fun and productive time with a friend. His death from a massive coronary just before my solo really hit me hard.

[1600vw]

Steve I have to agree with everything you say. I put it all out on the table and leave nothing back. Not like most whom like to hold thier cards close to the body, I show my hand, honest upfront.

To date I have had 6 engine outs and one complete catastrophic failure, all flying single seaters so that would be, I was alone and on my own. I get ask..did you get scared....no time to think about it, you have a job and you better do it.

Do I think those events make me a better pilot, not to sure, but I am a smarter pilot.

Hope your Christmas was a good one for you and your's.

H.A.S.

[1600vw]

Steve I have to agree with everything you say. I put it all out on the table and leave nothing back. Not like most whom like to hold thier cards close to the body, I show my hand, honest upfront.

To date I have had 6 engine outs and one complete catastrophic failure, all flying single seaters so that would be, I was alone and on my own. I get ask..did you get scared....no time to think about it, you have a job and you better do it.

Do I think those events make me a better pilot, not to sure, but I am a smarter pilot.

Hope your Christmas was a good one for you and your's.

H.A.S.

I posted this in the wrong thread...Sorry about this people....I should know..... never post before coffee.

H.A.S

[Pearson]

H.A.S. I have read your posts on the video about the guy who crashed and also about taking passengers up. I find your viewpoints very interesting. I also find what you posted about having 6 engine outs and a catastrophic failure amazing, all while flying single seaters. Do you mind if I ask a little more about these situations? I have been flying for 40 years, most of that time as a professional pilot, and I don't think I have had as many engine failures as you. Were all of these engine failures in the same airplane? If so, I am curious as to what kind it was. What did you find as the cause of these failures? Please share your stories with us. Maybe we all can learn something from your experience.

I am also facinated by your posts on carrying passengers. I agree that if you don't feel comfortable carrying passengers until you have 500 or even a thousand hours, then you shouldn't. But if you are flying a single seat airplane how will you ever develop the experience of flying a two seater, even if that seat is empty. I would think it would be better to fly a two seater by yourself for awhile, so you could gain the experience to get you comfortable to fly with a passenger. Of course, if you have no desire to ever fly a passenger it doesn't matter. I have found aviation to be a lot like sex, it is more fun with a partner. :-) I applaud you for developing your own minimums regarding flying passengers and staying within them. I was very comfortable with the instruction I received and flew my first passenger just a few days after my PPL checkride. When I got my instrument rating, I used it to go on a pleasure trip very soon afterward that required flying through the clouds. If I hadn't felt comfortable doing this, I would not have. I believe that when anyone takes flying lessons they should be learning much more than just how to operate the controls. They should be learning about themselves, how they think and process information, what they are comfortable with and what makes them uncomfortable. I used to tell my students, when I was a flight instructor, that they have a gauge they carry around with them at all times. It is their gut. If it is talking to them, they should listen. If your gut tells you the weather ahead is more than you want to take on, do something about it. To the best of my knowledge, none of my students ever crashed. I really feel for the poor guy in that video. I bet his gut was yelling at him during the last few minutes of that flight.

[steveinindy]

Steve I have to agree with everything you say. I put it all out on the table and leave nothing back. Not like most whom like to hold thier cards close to the body, I show my hand, honest upfront.

No worries man. That's all anyone can ask of you in that regard. I've had three or four engine failures in my time- one in a Cessna 172 due to a maintenance error and the rest in ultralights- but the make takeaway point was that you need to use your flying time to build your skills and not wait for a certain number of hours to fly passengers or take longer (but still reasonable) trips.

To date I have had 6 engine outs and one complete catastrophic failure, all flying single seaters so that would be, I was alone and on my own. I get ask..did you get scared....no time to think about it, you have a job and you better do it.

Might I ask what you are flying that has had so many failures? If these are all on the same type of powerplant, it might be time to consider a different model or at very least consider the way in which you are handling it.

Do I think those events make me a better pilot, not to sure, but I am a smarter pilot.

Nothing scrubs away undeserved positive opinions of oneself like staring risk in the face....or landing an ultralight in someone's front yard and having to meekly ask "Do you mind if I use your phone?" as I had to do on one occasion after my engine started giving me problems.

Hope your Christmas was a good one for you and your's.

I don't personally observe it per se (since I am Jewish) but thanks for the sentiment. My fiancee and her family had a nice little private celebration of it which I attended. It is always nice to get to spend time with those you care about regardless of the reason or the season. Merry Christmas to you and your friends and family. Fly safe in the new year!

[martymayes]

the docs told her that if she kept smoking she would most likely end her days feeling that same way she did that day in bed; unable to draw a breath no matter how much she tried.
She never smoked another cigerette. Ever. No patch, No support Group. Simply Scared Straight.
...

Neighbor had triple bypass and docs said if he kept smoking he would be dead in 6 mos. He got a new doc that wasn't so adamant and kept smoking. Some people are invincible. That seems to be the case with the Cirrus pilot.

Which one would you rather fly with? Your wife or my neighbor?

[Frank Giger]

Maybe I'm missing something fundamental, but I don't really see the difference between an hour "around the patch" and three hours in cross-country, other than duration and change of airports.

I do the same weather analysis for both.
I have the same contingency plans for both (yes, I've diverted on a "local" flight to another airport).
I have my sectional out and check my waypoint landmarks for both.
I pre- and post- flight the same way.
In the air, I check fuel levels, weather, engine conditions, clouds, etc. continuously.

I also fail to see how something can be less or more dangerous if there is a passenger in the aircraft. The aircraft doesn't care, the weather doesn't care, and there's still only one person working the controls.

If a pilot is competent to fly it himself - and is honest about his limitations - I don't see what the big deal is.

Then again, I work on the starting premise that it isn't a good day to fly and then list all the mitigating factors to the risks until they are acceptable.

[edit]

Might I ask what you are flying that has had so many failures? If these are all on the same type of powerplant, it might be time to consider a different model or at very least consider the way in which you are handling it.

I got a dollar it was a two cycle Rotax. Everyone I know that has flown with them has had multiple "unscheduled landings" due to them conking out.