G'day DaveI believe the period between doses is 21 days and that full protection occurs seven days after the final dose. The answer to your second question is, "probably not."
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Thanks George!
I just read an article that suggests that we ultimately go to a three dose regimen. Second shot one month after and the third six months after. Yikes!
Don’t know how it’s gonna go down in your country but with our mobile society getting the second shot is just going to be an administrative nightmare. I’ve also read that full immunization can take anywhere from several days to a couple of weeks. It all depends on the individual; that’s typical for most immunizations. Of course during that time you’re still vulnerable. Great......
Maybe it won't be the full enchilada Airventure, but I think a reasonable facsimile of the event will take place. By June/July, anyone who wants to be inoculated will be, and if you aren't vaccinated, YOU get to decide whether to attend. By then, vaccinations and herd immunity will have greatly reduced the number of infected people and really reduced the spread rate.
No probs. What I omitted was the word, average. Full effect of the vaccination will occur on average seven days after the second shot. One, two, four or six shots, I'll still be getting the vaccination.
Many people and media organisations mention herd immunity, but I cannot understand how that will ever happen. None of the manufacturers is saying that their vaccine will prevent the virus infecting (entering) your body; only that the vaccine will prevent/minimise Covid-19 disease after the virus enters your body. I prefer a three-course meal, so if it's only the appetiser being offered by the EAA, I'll wait for full service. ;) :D Hopefully by 2022.
I’m with you, I intend to get it regardless the number of doses. I just mentioned it because I believe too many people (not necessarily this forum) think: “A shot on Monday, free to travel the world on Friday.” When in reality the immunization process is more like a month. Couple that with availability of the vaccine to the masses and the timeline to impact AV2021 and most major summer events starts to get very
By then, 20% (maybe more, maybe less depending...) of the populace will have natural immunity, having contracted the virus. That *helps* reduce spread. Everyone else will have had a chance to be vaccinated. We'll be at (sort of?) steady state post-covid, where you either got it, got inoculated, or chose not to get the vaccine. That's gonna be the situation until the end of time, or a better medical solution comes about... So move ahead, I say. ;-)
Well, like I said, I'm still making plans for A/V 2021 regardless. And since we're talking about Covid vaccines and such, I thought I would just throw this out there.
https://youtu.be/lkGB1-YFn1Q
And on a side note, my wife is going flying with me today for the first time !
Bob
I almost forgot to mention .....
The price of a piece of apple pie in Jamaica is $2.00
The price of a piece of apple pie in the Bahamas is $2.50
These are the pie rates of the Caribbean!
Ooooooh or should it be arrrrrrgh???
This is the keyboard they use to take your order.
Attachment 8748
I think AV2021 will happen, but at a somewhat reduced scale. After the financial losses of 2020, EAA will need to be careful not to over-estimate the attendance in 2021.
Ron Wanttaja
I see the 2021 Paris Air Show is already cancelled (June 21 - 27).
I think, as we saw last year, the big deciding factor for our convention isn’t the actual event, it’s whether the preparation can take place.
AVweb weighs in....
https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/...t-count-on-it/
Ron Wanttaja
Well, it looks like we’re all in for another six months of wait and see. I’ll think I’ll be holding off on buying my advanced tickets for a while.
I am still planning on going to AV2021, but my gut feeling is that it will be cancelled again. Please, God, make me wrong..... Nevertheless, I never thought that they would have a vaccine with 95% efficacy now either. Roll up your sleeves, soldiers, it's here.
Pfizer and Moderna early out the gate but J&J catching up with a single dose and normal refrigeration will be an influencer. Doses from Pfizer will cover such a small number of our first responders/clinicians and those in long term care. The VA [my provider] has been scrambling for an early supply but natural human greed will show its self again on an international stage. We will watch as the élite will have first dibs.
We will know more in March as the distribution system will have known numbers.
Unless they speed up the COVID-19 vaccinations, you can kiss AirVenture 2021 goodbye. Yet, somehow, someway, I think that the vaccine availability will explode in just a few more days.
Johnson&Johnson about ready for approval. No special refrig and single dose. Unknown how many doses are in stockpile and what their manf rate is.
Even if #46 can get the numbers of doses and implement his plan that gives us 100 million by the first of May. Way less than the 70% needed for herd. International attendees - totally unknown.
The rollout chaos and conflicting information from the last year will take some time to actually have good data on where we are now. We are now seeing clusters internationally for areas once under better control. New variant will be a study in adaptation and a dominant strain very quickly. Data on efficacy of vaccine against this variant is still out
As to the thread - Yes, we will VERY unlikely see a AV21.
Everyone remain healthy and do your part to help others to remain so.
I hope your are right. I have only missed one AirVenture since my first one in 1985 and that was AV2020. I flew in and camped for 25 years. I have made my dorm reservations at UW-OSH, and I have scheduled my COVID-19 vaccinations. I am planning on going, but I hear voices and those voices tell me to plan on being disappointed. So, I will hope for the best and plan on the worst. Another thing to consider is that they should soon know if the vaccination also prevents the spread of the virus. If that is the case then there might be a requirement to have been vaccinated to attend large public gatherings. Whatever. If it means that I would have to be vaccinated with a 10 inch needle in each of my gluteus maximus muscles in order to attend AV2021, I will be one of many standing at the bars rather than sitting.
Thanks Jim, My wife went back to work last Thursday, 1/14 after 10 days of quarantine, she's a nurse at the hospital that was ground zero for S.C. I'm a good bit older that she is so I don't work anymore. Well, I don't get paid anymore but I stay busy. We both agreed we have been much sicker in the past, although this was no picnic either, but we are probably back to about 90% now. I need to get back to the airport and visit the usual crowd and get some flying in, that 150 isn't going to fly itself. Lol. We do take a fair amount of precautions but we refuse to live our lives in a bubble. I appreciate the well wishes and hope everyone here stays safe and can get back to normal as much as possible.
Bob
Latest projection I heard from our suburban Chicago county health department is it will take most of 2021 to get all that want to be inoculated inoculated. Even if the vaccine was available, which it isn't, the logistics are daunting and no one in the multiple layers of government that are in charge have ever dealt with anything approaching this scale.
Too many fiefdoms. As disastrous as this thing is, I'm sure there are plenty in the private sector who could put an effective plan together and get this thing rolling in the right direction (maybe not the *perfect* direction) very quickly.
All of this planning and preparing should have been done months ago. The Allies didn't plan D-day on the fly. There was a huge amount of planning done, at a very detailed level, beforehand.
This is much simpler, but the scale is huge. The planning and logistics should have been figured out to a very high level of detail before Thanksgiving.
Well I am beginning to feel more optimistic about AV2021.
Georgia has started vaccines for anyone 65 and older. Last week I actually got into the North Georgia Public Health District after dialing a mere 217 times only to get told that my county was booked and not taking anymore reservations. I politely hung up and then realized that I should have asked for an out of county location, cr#p! So today I got thru and asked for another location and was assigned the same date that I have jury duty (really I'm not making this up) and they would not give me another date. So I hung up and tried 2.5 hours later and got thru.....much to my surprise. I now have a reservation a week from today and its even earlier than my jury date. Oh, I also purchased my AV 2021 tickets. ;) Still on the fence as to whether I want to camp or commute in daily. Leaning towards camping this year.
I am astounded that a 6 county health district has only one telephone line for scheduling COVID tests and vaccines. What were these people thinking??? The NGPHD website has been crashed for about two weeks now just due to lack of bandwidth. Can't believe the state and local governments have had almost a year to prepare for this moment and they act like it just popped up yesterday. It could be worse, I hear that Wisconsin is only administering the vaccine to the general public only if you're 75 or older.
I was pleasantly surprised to learn that the VA called my Dad a few days ago, unsolicited, to schedule his shots. He's 83 and has some compromising conditions, so we're thrilled that he's on the books so quickly; he gets the first jab tomorrow. Every once in awhile the VA gets it right.
Hey everyone -- just a follow-up to some of the comments made about the likelihood of AirVenture 2021 happening. We are planning for AirVenture 2021 to take place. There will likely be some COVID-19 precautions/restrictions in place (i.e. social distancing, capacity limits indoors, extra sanitization, etc.), but we are going full-steam ahead on AirVenture 2021 planning. We'll be announcing some of our plans in terms of COVID precautions within the next few weeks, though those plans may change as the event gets closer. Updates will be announced on EAA.org, in eHotline, as well as our primary social media pages such as Facebook and Twitter. Hope to see many of you in Oshkosh this summer!
That's encouraging. My room reservations are made and I will be bringing more sanitizer. Maybe some Depends.......
Thanks for update Sam. As a tram operator, it will be interesting to see how transportation will be handled if the event goes forward
Thanks Sam. Pending some major setback, I think its going to boil down to a couple of issues.
First, just how comfortable will people be traveling and attending AV even with protocols in place. The question in my mind is will the rollout of the vaccine to the general public come in time to provide that confidence. Opinions tend to fall into two camps without many in the mid ground. I guess advance ticket sales will be a good measure for attendance estimates.
The second is what impacts will the protocols have on attendee experience. Unfortunately AV is a cluster of social gathering nightmares for y'all: buses, trams, interview circles, exhibit halls, restrooms, workshops, food courts, etc. Some things are easy to fix like more porta-potties or increased dining spaces. I doubt EAA can or will add more tram cars simply due to expense and the time line. Same can be said for the new Gray Lot bus terminal. What's going to happen when an attendee can't get into a venue because of occupation limits. You know somebody is going to complain that they paid for full access and got turned away from a venue. What then?
Quite honestly I don't envy you guys. Y'all have to make some tough decisions and no matter what is decided somebody is going to be unhappy. I think that is going to be the one true given.
If they have AV2021, I'm going with the expectation that is will be a bit more restrictive or "scaled down." Most of us are now "conditioned" to this damn plague and we understand. Some will be disappointed because it is not going to be AirVenture as usual. I don't want to miss another AirVenture, even if it means a "scaled-down" version. What I really missed last years is seeing some of my long time friends from all over the US and some locals also. I also missed staggering around all those many aircraft that I have seen so many times. That's all I need from AirVenture and I'll take it anyway I can get it. AV2021 is about 6 months away. I am hopeful that IF the COVID-19 vaccine is all that they say it is, most of those who go will have been vaccinated and the risk of severe illness or death will be minimal. If I were one who did not get the vaccine, I believe I would not go.
That's kinda where my brain is right now.
I do still have a motel reservation - IF the mom-n-pop motel financially can stay open till July of course. Somehow or another without my meaning to I've turned 72 and won't risk a lengthy hospital ICU stay so unless I and a whole lot of folks get vaccinated twice by the end of June (assuming the two-dose requirement and full efficacy not happening until 2 weeks after the last dose) I will likely force myself to stay home. The notion of conducting my tram while sitting a couple feet from the huddled masses while also sharing a microphone with my fellow conductors sounds like a surefire way to get infected with any airborne disease.
There is IMHO exactly zero way to hold or attend AirVenture while maintaining 6' social distancing, so that mandate will need to be removed before opening day as well.
Unfortunately I don’t think social distancing will be gone by July. Its going to force EAA to rethink a lot of things. I would not be surprised to see some venues and services severely drawn down or even cancelled. I think tram services fall into that category.
It will be interesting to see how SNF plays out. I’m sure EAA will watch closely and adjust accordingly.
Just writing down a few thoughts for cathartic reasons.
Here in TX, I really don't have any authoritative knowledge of what's going on. I read stories about doses going unused because of the logistical challenge in dispensing. Things like long prep times, etc., resulting in sometimes insufficient doses being available. At the opposite end, we prep too much and have to either discard or put out an Ollie Ollie All in Free call to stick the leftovers in an arm, any arm, regardless of "class".
That said (and I wasn't griping - was just citing that it's a bigger challenge than having doses just sitting there...), we're pushing up against a drop-dead date of - what - May 1st for a go/no-go decision?
Even if we (EAA) manage to continue with AV2021 by imposing "new" crowd measures, this is gonna be hard, folks. Look at those sporting events that have been held during the past few months (here in TX, $$$ is king, so bring the Rose Bowl, the National Finals Rodeo, the World Series, etc). Yeah, you wear a mask to get in the door, but it's hard to whoop it up for your team wearing a mask, so off it comes. As an example, for the Rodeo finals, Ft Worth obtained 30,000 test kits. Only 724 attendees used the tests. Of those, 13%, THIRTEEN PERCENT, were positive. A LOT of attendees did not use the masks.
Just a quick thought about distancing at AV, and it's gonna be a nightmare. We'll have to double the number of volunteers to be the Safety Patrol.
Think about it. I volunteer in the workshops. I'm standing there across a 2' table with 2-3 folks on the other side, trying to learn how to work metal. We're standing there 30 minutes or more depending on the person's skill. WELL within the 6' limit. We frequently have to get closer to demonstrate the intricacies of the process.
Then there's the exhibit barns, A, B, C, & D. For in-demand products, there's usually a crowd of 5 or so huddled pretty close to hear the salesman tell another client about the product. It's noisey, so you have to strain to hear. Even if a lower-tiered product, 2-3 folks in the same party will crowd the vendor to hear what their buddy is asking.
Bottom line is that aside from walking around airplanes (a great event anyway!), there's not a lot of space to conduct a lot of business. Unfortunately, I was not a member in the early days when it *was* basically members-only who were allowed greater access. Not trying to be a snob, but maybe we need to go back to that. But then again, EAA NEEDS the money from 150,000/day attendance. And I most assuredly want EAA to prosper.
Then again, if we use 6' distancing for concession lines, the donuts and 1' tall ice cream cones will have lines stretching all the way to the North 40!
At this point, I'll be there. I don't yet have my vaccine (over 65), but I have great genes, the "correct" blood type and a good immune system. This'll probably do me in....
How did AV handle the H1N1 outbreak in 2009? There were 60 million US cases that year. It was highly contagious.
Not going to get into your fatality number as that is suspect based on reporting, but that is not the point.
The question was did AV do anything different for sanitization or change up anything that year? 1/5 the US population got H1N1, and it was a tough sickness if you got it.
I don't recall the exact year, but some time around a decade ago they started to put in lots of hand sanitizer stations around the eat spots, in the port-johns and other such places. I don't know if it was in 2009 or had anything to do with H1N1 but it was around that time.
Other than that I don't recall them doing anything differently.