Disinterest by a thousand cuts...
I think the real problem with learning to fly is not learning to fly -- it's the competing inputs that draw students away. These are, in my own thinking about order of impact:
- burdens associated with the hobby in 2012 are substantially greater than they were in 1960;
- competing "cooler" options involving powered sports out there that didn't exist before;
- much more "all-in regulation" to worry about in 2012.
Burdens: financial, time, and regulatory all add up to...deterrents. I do not feel industry has done nearly enough to force infrastructure change to fight these burdens. It's happened in other industries with success.
Competing options: given the option of flying patterns, taking a powerboat out for a ski, or riding an ATV through rolling countryside, aviation tends to lose out. Flying is not inherently social -- these other sports most certainly are. Golf, boating, and off-roading are all sports that have a radically different approach to attracting newcomers in 2012. Aviation looks a lot like it did in the 60s; not appealing to most I know.
Regulation: considering the regulatory infrastructure (both for the airman certification as well as medical) and the severity with which aviation is treated today given legal precedent and punishment for transgressions, we have taken a good deal of fun out of the GA learning process. Frankly, GA as a whole is suffering from this -- not just new students but with established pilots too.
I firmly believe that the declining interest in aviation is deeper than the burdens of complex airspace in big airport areas like mine (the SF Bay Area). Perhaps it is truly the sum total of so many small inconveniences, fears, or outright negative aspects of flying that turn people away.
That's my take -- additional thoughts if you're interested.
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One of these negative elements might be our training fleet --could it be holding us back? Folks I know have no interest in history when learning to fly. They want safe, modern, easy-to-operate machines that track developments in similar "hobby industries". When you consider boating (power & sail), off-roading (ATVs & bikes), or other "expensive hobbies involving machines" the safety, reliability, and *affordability* of those activities continues to improve. Whereas for our industry, it continues to get harder & more expensive.
It's important to inspire our new pilots. Does a 1970 C152 inspire anyone? Really? Be honest! My MINI Cooper inspires people every where I go -- people would rather drive my car than fly a plane. That's the real problem.
It is hard to look through the eyes of a new, potential pilot, but I'd ask you to do just that. When they show up at an airport surrounded with barbed wire, 30-40 year old trainers, old second-hand buildings for training, and a litany of burdens that come before the sheer joy of flight, it's easy to see why 80%+ of students walk away & never come back.
I'm 15 years into my ticket, and flying modern Cirrus and am IFR current and proficient. Couldn't be happier myself! But alas, I have yet to successfully see one friend through training from start to finish. All I have brought have dropped out; it's the reasons I state above that has turned them away.
If we can make flying fun again, students will finish. It's not about the money -- look at the cost of boating & off-roading and you'll see that plainly. It's about a spark that refuses to ignite despite our best intentions. Time for us to re-think the approach to "learning to fly".