ADS-B pricing AFTER 1/1/2020?

I was just sitting around when the thought popped into my brain: I wonder if ADS-B prices (specifically, the combined xpnder/ADS-B units) will drop after January 1st. After all, aside from us homebuilders, most of the GA aircraft (at least those flying near controlled airspace), should be fully equipped.

As a homebuilder who will not be complete with my current plane until 2020, do I just hold-off and wait? I'm betting yes. I know there will still be a few hundred a year for new certificated production as well as E/AB, but should be a far cry from today.

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Originally Posted by CarlOrton

...As a homebuilder who will not be complete with my current plane until 2020, do I just hold-off and wait? I'm betting yes. I know there will still be a few hundred a year for new certificated production as well as E/AB, but should be a far cry from today...

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My guess is prices will remain about the same. Will your home-built have certified IFR-GPS? Mode C? Depending on what it has, you will have various options to choose from for ADS-B Out. A typical combo (Mode C + ADS-B Out/In) such as ESGi runs at least $3K plus install. YMMV. I personally would not anticipate prices are going to drop that much post-01/01/2020, but then what do I know?

I would wait, but there is some risk.

The only thing that I could predict to cause the price of ADS-B to go up would be Garmin successfully getting an injunction against uAvionics. The odds of that in the next year seem low. Just as likely as the injunction is that something comes out for homebuilts that is cheaper than the Skybeacon. If you are not planning to use a UAT solution, then there is no reason to spend the money now at all, because the best values in that space have nothing in the pipeline other than potential supply shortages that you will be on the other side of anyway.

If you can avoid towered airports and the Mode C Veil during your Phase 1, I would put off purchasing ADS-B until I was flying, and then start looking for a deal. Non-Certified Electronic Avionics advance really quickly, and in the last few years, ADS-B has advanced even quicker than the rest. Almost all of those advancements have put downward pressure on pricing.

There are a few of us around that remember when Mode C was mandated. Prices started out relatively high. But over time, equipage reached saturation and prices fell. A few years ago, one of the leading vendors ceased production - prices went up, but not to the original cost.

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Originally Posted by thisadviceisworthles

*snip* If you can avoid towered airports and the Mode C Veil during your Phase 1, *endsnip*

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Unfortunately, I'm under DFW Mode C, along with just about every other airport I like to frequent!