Lots of planes, little flying

Hi,

Today I found a hangar and went over my Dragonfly project. But the A&P I spoke with twice mentioned, 'We have lots of planes, no hangars, and little flying.'

I thought about it later and remembered when I flew my Cherokee 140 at eight gallons/hour, I was sensitive to fuel costs but back in 1976-80, prices were just twice auto gas, $2.50-3.00 / gal. My Dragonfly will burn four gallons per hour and cost just as much as the Cherokee . . . I can afford to go fly. But given current 100LL prices, the Cherokee would have been a problem.

Could the GA problem be little more than the direct operational cost of fuel?

Bob Wilson

Fuel is one factor.

So is the gradual loss of an entire generation of pilots (many beneficiaries of the original, generous GI Bill), aging of the fleet, threat of legal action at every turn, loss of small airfields, deregulation of airlines (and the attendant reduction in fares making personal business flying less cost effective), and overall lack of tolerance for hobbies that require significant time and money before "paying off" and the fact that anyone is flying today is encouraging.

In answer to your question, "Could the GA problem be little more than the direct operational cost of fuel?" My answer is no. I think Dan has hit on some of the drivers, but the real cause is the overall state of America.
We are in a transition period moving from the 40 plus years of global dominance to something less. What we have been experiencing across all sectors of American life is the fall out of this change. We have a political system that has failed to plan for the impacts of the global economy and chooses to "let the market" balance things. We are the only country in the world that takes this position, and China is benefiting greatly. General Aviation will survive and grow in China, we will see GA look more like it did in the 1930's when one sector could afford the latest equipment and the rest built their own, by hand in a garage. Not trying to be "political" but were not getting anywhere following what worked in the past.

Joe

Bob,

100LL in our area runs from 5.23 to 8.14, so less than to more than double auto gas which was 3.17 on my drive home from work this morning. So I really don't think the cost of gas matters. It is all the other factors above. LSA and Sport Pilot have created a very small increase but it is lost in the great reduction of the overall fleet.

Jim

I haven't flown much this year, and it all comes back to lack of time & money - and the lack of time is due to lack of money as we are running with less hired help this year & I am picking up the slack. Our club flying hours are down across the board, almost everyone has cut back on what they are spending on flying.

I have heard from a few mechanics about lots of planes coming in for annual with less than 10 hours since the last one

I believe the whole motivation behind development of auto fuel STC's was strictly economic, so yes, I'd say the cost of fuel has a huge impact on recreational flying.

When the US and global economies recover, expect serious competition for gasoline. We'll pay what people in other parts of the world pay and it won't be cheap. LSA's will certainly become more popular with their low(er) fuel consumption.

fuel cost? heck, flying today co$t$ exactly what it did when i started in '68, 10% more than i make. could be the problem is mulitfaceted. time away from family, drop in real income per hour worked, family not interested in the hobby, seen all the local airports, nothing to do when y'get there but eat a pancake breakfast or burger, not enough vacation time to take that dream trip, increased worry about busting a popup TFR, competing hobbies (you can drink a beer and fish from a boat), etc, etc. why pay so much and devote so much to something that's getting old? also, i think some is changing times. take a young eagle flying! even the most jaded video game multimedia addict sees flight through NEW EYES and so will you. maybe ought to followup with the YE's that really kaboom and take those kids flying a few more times - that'll spark y'all up!

Flying has always been expensive, but fewer can afford it today. New data released by the Census Bureau today shows that in 2010, the median (typical) U. S. household headed by a person aged 65 or older had a net worth that is 47 times greater than a household headed by a person under the age of 35. In 1984, the first year that the Census Bureau started measuring wealth broken down by age, and what I think of as part of the "Golden Age" of general aviation (remember how busy the airports were then, all the students taking lessons, etc.) the ratio was only 10 to 1. Younger people were much more likely to have the means to afford to fly back then, and they did (me among them). Fast forward to today, and the median net worth for younger households under 35 is $3,662 and a staggering 37 percent of those have a net worth less than zero. How can anyone afford to fly under those circumstances?

By taking younger persons flying, which I have done, we are unlikely to see a significant number of them become members of the flying community because of the dismal financial factors shown above. One could suppose we could experience a higher rate of return on our introduction to aviation flights by giving older people introductory flights and I believe that EAA has thinking about doing exactly that. I'm not sure what they will call the "age-challenged eagles" program (one could make up a number of amusing alternatives), but I doubt that it will make much of an impact.

Historically, approximately every 5 to 10 years, one or the other of the aviation alphabet groups has tried such a thing. One of them was called "Be a Pilot" or some such thing and I've forgotten the names of the others principally because they had virtually no effect. Unfortunately, the "age-challenged eagle" program is like to meet a similar fate for two main reasons.

First, older individuals are less likely to start or to finish pilot training than the younger pilot candidates. I know that at my age, if I had to start over again, I'd be less likely to start for a number of reasons and less likely to finish since tolerance of the irritations of flight training wains with age.

Second, due to higher mortality rates, and possible medical and insurance problems for the older pilot, they will have less of an impact on the size of the pilot population over time. If a younger pilot starts flying at age 30, he or she could have 30 or 40 years of flying to look forward to. For the older pilot starting when they're in the 50's or 60's, this might be 10 years or so.

Consequently, I don't see any improvement to the present situation on the horizon. I'd like to see the availability and promotion of experimental aircraft for younger people used to attempt to improve the situation, but that doesn't seem to be happening in any effective way.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Joe LaMantia

[W]e will see GA look more like it did in the 1930's when one sector could afford the latest equipment and the rest built their own, by hand in a garage. Joe

---

This is my thinking as well.

There will always be exceptions to the rule, like a small business owner figuring out that flying himself to a business meeting is a financial winner in time and convenience, but the trend is to the very high end and the very low end of cost of aircraft (relative, of course - aviation will never be cheap).

Things could change this, though. A dramatic increase in commercial aviation fares or some sort of restriction on automobiles (say if electrics get mandated for them, limiting their range and speed) could upset the balance; this is really unlikely.

It seems to me that this is exactly the same reason that the E.A.A. was started. A group of guys who wanted to go flying but could not afford to do it the conventional way, pooling their resources to make it more affordable. I belong to a flying club, and have been limiting my flying as much as possible while still staying current, and also scratch building an economical flyer. History repeats itself. I guess I belong the right organization!!

I must agree that the young people I have introduced to flight just don't have the means to go for it. On the other hand, I have successfully targeted a few "Matured" pilots that left flying in their younger days do to family and jobs. One ride in my open cockpit Charger bi-plane brings new sparkle in their eyes. With the Approved drug list today, many have found that they can indeed pass a flight physical, take a few refresher flights with a good instructor and once again savor the freedom we call flight. Three of these friends have bought their own aircraft and are now, once again competent pilots with huge smiles on their faces. Each returned pilot is another check on my bucket list!

While everyone I know gets all misty-eyed over the memories of busy airfields, if they went back that way I'd probably yearn for the days when I had the place all to myself and could do touch and goes as long as I wanted without interference.

:P

I'm 57, have soloed and done one x-country. The cost of renting from my instructor was killing me so I bought myself a '58 Piper Tripacer. This has put my fuel costs at $40-$50 an hour plus there are maintenance costs (I'm still sorting out some issues, but can see the light at the end of the tunnel), insurance, my instructor's fees when he flies with me and so forth. Even this is pushing my budget but once I have my PPL I expect my costs to come down some more.

In my case $$$ has been the biggest barrier to flight. I'm really spending more than my budget should allow but I decided that this is something I want to do so I'm doing it. I think that if flight were more affordable we would see more young people involved in GA. But another thing has changed - aviation no longer has the image of excitement and adventure that it did in the past. Anyone can hop on a jet and it's more or less a mundane experience. I suspect that takes away some from the draw.

One of the by-products of not much flying is unattended airports and airports that no longer sell fuel. I have no hard data, but it seems to me that there are more of these airports without an attendant and fuel, or the self-service fuel pump is locked and there may or may not be a working number to call. Sundays is a difficult day to fly cross country as there are few people around if some kind of service is needed. Makes cross country flying more difficult. At the same time, the hangars at these smaller, unattended airports seem to be full and I do not hear of many places where there is an abundance of available hangar space. Owners must be just parking their airplanes, waiting for better economic times, perhaps.

Don

One consequence is on Wednesday I learned my rate, $200/mo., would be double other rates because I want to rework my plane at the hanger. Priced by availability and demand, I don't fault the FBO, he has to stay in business too. But it justifies my decision to go with a quality trailer to bring the plane home.

Thursday I ordered a new pontoon trailer, sized to carry the plane from Canton to Huntsville. It won't take much to tailor it for my plane but it is open frame. But I had speculated about mods to make it into a variation of a sailplane trailer.

My first thought is a light-weight (aka., foam and fiber-glass shell) whose primary goal is hail protection. Pure speculation, an outer layer of kevlar (who can afford it?), a flexible foam core, and a flexible inner shell. Instead of breaking, the shell deforms to absorb the hail impact energy and then returns to the original shape. . . . Ok, maybe overkill but it is a consequence of the original problem . . . too many parked planes and not enough flying.

The airport needs to stay in business and if it can't from fuel and operating expenses then it becomes an expensive, airplane parking lot.

Bob Wilson

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dewi8095

At the same time, the hangars at these smaller, unattended airports seem to be full and I do not hear of many places where there is an abundance of available hangar space. Owners must be just parking their airplanes, waiting for better economic times, perhaps.

Don

---

They sure are.

Here's the mindset: "I paid $65,000 for that 1972 PA28-160 and I'm not taking a penny less!"

So the annual reveals some issues that will cost $5k to fix. The airplane is pushed back into the hangar and sits, waiting for someone to show up with a check for $65,000.

Even worse is when the owner dies and the family thinks "Oh, that's where all his money was!" And expect to sell the Cherokee for $100k because "Uncle Ned" told them that's what the airplane is worth...

Of course fuel prices have something to do with it. I used to work at an FBO, and when gas prices went down (albeit rare), I could see a great jump in activity. The main problem is that the people's disposable income is dropping significantly because the cost of everything is going up while their wages are not. I'm 18, and I finally, luckily, got my license in August the day before I left for college. I paid for almost all of my lessons myself through saving for years. Only one time did my dad give me money in the middle of the process when my finances got thin, but I paid for the rest. I pushed to the very last day possible, as I knew that if I didn't get it done before I went to college, I would not finish it for years because the amount of time I need to spend on my college work would not have allowed me anytime to fly, but I finally got it done. It was the biggest relief in the world, and it felt so good to finally be able join the club! But the price to do just about anything today is ridiculous.

Congrats Jesse!
You are proof that if you want something bad enough you can still find a way to get it done! I know a lot of "Seniors" who pine for the good old days and have negative things to say about the younger generation, but that is just a function of aging. That has been with us since Adam died! There's a old saying, "when things get tough the tough get going!", and today things are tough. Nice going!, tough guy!

Joe
:cool:

The lack of flying is because (IMO) flying isn't seen as glamoruous, like it was up through (arguably) the Apollo program. So most people born after me (I'm a '64 model) never looked at flying and though "Wow, I've gotta do that". Without that passion, few are going to make the sacrifices of both time and money to become pilots.

The cost issue? There is more wealth today and there are more wealthy people today than ever before. Most people just choose to spend their discretionary funds on a bigger house, a newer car, or a nicer vacation, instead of earmarking it for flying.